Game Recap: VAN 2, EDM 6, January 23, 2025

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Game Recap

VAN2

FinalThu, Jan 23, 2025Every game that night

EDM6

EDM beat VAN 6-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.62 expected goals to 1.53. EDM outshot VAN 34 to 26. Z. Hyman led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). Z. Hyman had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. C. Pickard stopped 24 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VAN	0	2	0	2
EDM	3	2	1	6

1st 5:52EDMZ. Hyman0.15 xG
1st 14:21EDML. DraisaitlPP0.14 xG
1st 14:41EDMA. Henrique0.09 xG
2nd 1:59EDMZ. Hyman0.05 xG
2nd 12:02EDMR. Nugent-HopkinsPP0.19 xG
2nd 12:27VANB. Boeser0.04 xG
2nd 15:06VANF. Hronek0.05 xG
3rd 10:21EDMK. Kapanen0.03 xG

Team Stats

VANEDM

26Shots on goal34

1.53Expected goals4.62

54Shot attempts64

225v5 shots on goal23

0/0Power play2/4

25Hits19

13Blocked shots12

26Penalty minutes8

9Giveaways9

3Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VAN 1.53 xGEDM 4.62 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VAN26 on goal, 2 scored

EDM34 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Boeser	RW	1	1	2	3	3	0	+2	0	16:52	0:00
P. Suter	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	18:35	0:00
J. Miller	C	0	1	1	3	4	1	+2	0	17:30	0:00
E. Pettersson	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	17:12	0:00
C. Garland	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	4	15:31	0:00
T. Blueger	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	2	15:05	0:00
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	14:58	0:00
D. Heinen	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	13:52	0:00
P. Di Giuseppe	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	12:55	0:00
M. Sasson	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	10:11	0:00
L. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	9:38	0:00
K. Sherwood	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	2	6:10	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0	25:12	0:00
F. Hronek	D	1	0	1	2	1	3	-1	0	24:52	0:00
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	1	3	4	-2	2	21:51	0:00
D. Forbort	D	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	19:58	0:00
V. Desharnais	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	6	18:43	0:00
M. Friedman	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	10	9:53	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Demko	34	28	6	.824	60:00	Loss
K. Lankinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Draisaitl	C	1	2	3	2	0	0	0	0	21:55	6:18
Z. Hyman	LW	2	1	3	6	0	3	+2	0	19:20	5:48
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	1	1	2	3	0	0	0	0	19:29	5:44
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	14:54	0:38
A. Henrique	C	1	0	1	1	3	0	+1	0	14:37	0:42
C. Perry	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+3	2	14:29	1:14
K. Kapanen	RW	1	0	1	2	2	0	+2	0	12:39	0:00
N. Philp	C	0	1	1	2	2	0	+1	0	10:55	0:00
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	14:08	0:00
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	14:08	0:00
J. Skinner	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	13:34	6:31
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	3	6	2	-1	0	12:13	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	22:29	6:24
M. Ekholm	D	0	1	1	4	0	1	+2	0	17:43	0:33
T. Emberson	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	16:59	0:00
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	1	5	2	+1	2	22:19	1:18
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	+1	0	20:31	0:00
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	2	14:24	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Pickard	26	24	2	.923	59:14	Win
S. Skinner	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamVasily Podkolzin EDM Faces VAN, his team until May 20243 SOG
HometownJake DeBrusk VAN Plays in his hometown2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VAN 2.6, EDM 3.3	VAN 2, EDM 6
Total goals	5.8	8
Shots on goal	VAN 22.9, EDM 29.5	VAN 26, EDM 34
Win chance	EDM 62%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM L. Draisaitl	3.0	2	1.51	3	45%	1
EDM Z. Hyman	2.9	6	0.86	3	38%	2
EDM E. Bouchard	2.4	2	0.82	1	18%	0
EDM V. Arvidsson	2.3	1	0.62	1	21%	0
VAN C. Garland	2.2	0	0.61	0	22%	0
VAN Q. Hughes	2.1	3	0.90	1	13%	0
EDM D. Nurse	2.1	1	0.40	0	12%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	1.9	4	0.45	1	13%	0
VAN J. Miller	1.9	3	0.83	1	25%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	1.9	0	0.76	0	27%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.8	3	0.79	2	23%	1
VAN J. DeBrusk	1.8	2	0.52	0	25%	0
VAN B. Boeser	1.8	3	0.63	2	26%	1
VAN K. Sherwood	1.7	0	0.41	0	19%	0
EDM J. Skinner	1.6	3	0.43	0	18%	0
VAN P. Suter	1.5	3	0.37	1	18%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.5	3	0.36	0	14%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.3	2	0.31	0	8%	0
EDM C. Brown	1.3	0	0.35	0	10%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.2	1	0.43	1	19%	1
VAN F. Hronek	1.2	2	0.41	1	7%	1
EDM C. Perry	1.1	1	0.34	1	15%	0
VAN D. Heinen	1.1	1	0.36	0	16%	0
VAN M. Sasson	1.0	1	0.24	0	10%	0
VAN T. Blueger	1.0	1	0.30	0	9%	0
VAN P. Giuseppe	0.9	3	0.21	0	10%	0
EDM K. Kapanen	0.9	2	0.26	1	10%	1
VAN M. Friedman	0.9	0	0.11	0	3%	0
EDM N. Philp	0.8	2	0.19	1	8%	0
VAN C. Soucy	0.8	1	0.17	0	5%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.8	0	0.29	0	10%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.7	1	0.20	1	3%	0
VAN L. Karlsson	0.7	1	0.14	0	9%	0
EDM T. Stecher	0.7	0	0.12	0	4%	0
VAN D. Forbort	0.6	2	0.14	0	4%	0
VAN V. Desharnais	0.5	0	0.11	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.