Game Recap: VAN 5, FLA 8, November 17, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

VAN5

FinalMon, Nov 17, 2025Every game that night

FLA8

FLA beat VAN 8-5, and the chances backed it up: 4.01 expected goals to 1.96. FLA outshot VAN 41 to 15. S. Reinhart led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). S. Jones had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. S. Bobrovsky stopped 10 of 15.

Team Stats

VANFLA

15Shots on goal41

1.96Expected goals4.01

53Shot attempts69

95v5 shots on goal32

2/6Power play2/6

13Hits24

15Blocked shots20

18Penalty minutes18

10Giveaways10

2Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VAN 1.96 xGFLA 4.01 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VAN15 on goal, 5 scored

FLA40 on goal, 7 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Pettersson	C	2	0	2	2	0	3	0	0	21:24	5:35
K. Sherwood	LW	0	2	2	1	3	0	+1	4	20:41	4:41
E. Kane	LW	0	2	2	1	0	1	0	2	19:45	5:10
J. DeBrusk	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	-3	0	16:55	4:58
M. Sasson	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	2	14:50	3:16
D. O'Connor	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	13:50	0:35
B. Boeser	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	20:59	5:38
D. Kampf	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-3	0	14:08	0:00
L. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	11:15	2:39
L. Reichel	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	9:34	0:51
M. MacEachern	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	8:44	0:00
A. Räty	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	7:51	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	3	3	1	0	3	0	2	29:39	7:27
F. Hronek	D	1	0	1	3	2	1	+1	0	25:10	3:13
T. Myers	D	0	1	1	0	1	4	-2	4	19:05	0:00
T. Willander	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	0	11:50	0:49
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	4	16:36	0:04
E. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	-2	0	10:57	0:31

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Patera	40	33	7	.825	56:49	Loss
K. Lankinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Reinhart	C	0	3	3	3	1	4	+1	0	24:41	7:11
B. Marchand	LW	1	1	2	3	0	1	0	0	18:46	5:51
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	2	2	1	1	0	+1	0	17:40	6:18
S. Bennett	C	1	1	2	4	3	0	+1	6	16:05	2:14
E. Rodrigues	C	1	0	1	4	1	1	+1	0	21:47	2:45
A. Lundell	C	1	0	1	5	2	0	0	0	20:13	6:11
J. Boqvist	C	0	1	1	2	5	0	+1	2	16:27	3:07
A. Greer	LW	1	0	1	3	4	0	+2	2	12:14	0:30
L. Kunin	C	1	0	1	1	0	3	+1	0	7:46	0:00
N. Gregor	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+2	0	7:20	0:00
M. Samoskevich	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-2	0	13:45	2:09
C. Schwindt	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2:36	0:00
S. Jones	D	2	0	2	5	1	3	0	0	24:23	6:49
A. Ekblad	D	0	1	1	2	2	3	-1	0	22:08	3:02
G. Forsling	D	0	1	1	3	0	5	+1	0	21:47	0:35
N. Mikkola	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+3	4	18:29	0:00
U. Balinskis	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	+2	2	12:55	0:28
J. Petry	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	2	11:44	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Bobrovsky	15	10	5	.667	59:51	Win
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VAN

Line 1E. Kane12:36E. Pettersson11:27K. Sherwood11:10

Line 2M. Sasson10:45D. O'Connor9:45B. Boeser11:12

Line 3J. DeBrusk8:20D. Kampf9:14M. MacEachern8:25

Line 4L. Reichel8:43L. Karlsson8:11A. Räty7:22

Pair 1Q. Hughes20:22F. Hronek17:01

Pair 2T. Myers11:41M. Pettersson11:29

Pair 3E. Pettersson8:03T. Willander10:19

FLA

Line 1E. Rodrigues13:39J. Boqvist12:24S. Reinhart11:50

Line 2C. Verhaeghe11:00S. Bennett13:03A. Greer11:06

Line 3B. Marchand9:26A. Lundell10:22M. Samoskevich9:51

Line 4L. Kunin6:42N. Gregor6:16C. Schwindt2:36

Pair 1A. Ekblad13:25G. Forsling14:45

Pair 2S. Jones12:59N. Mikkola14:08

Pair 3J. Petry10:55U. Balinskis11:38

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VAN 2.6, FLA 3.4	VAN 5, FLA 8
Total goals	5.9	13
Shots on goal	VAN 23.4, FLA 30.1	VAN 15, FLA 41
Win chance	FLA 64%	FLA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
FLA S. Reinhart	2.8	3	1.05	3	41%	0
FLA B. Marchand	2.6	3	0.99	2	33%	1
VAN Q. Hughes	2.5	1	0.86	3	11%	0
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.5	1	0.81	2	29%	0
VAN E. Kane	2.5	1	0.49	2	25%	0
FLA S. Bennett	2.5	4	0.67	2	27%	1
FLA A. Lundell	2.4	5	0.88	1	24%	1
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.0	2	0.50	1	25%	1
FLA E. Rodrigues	2.0	4	0.54	1	19%	1
FLA M. Samoskevich	1.9	4	0.50	0	18%	0
VAN K. Sherwood	1.8	1	0.52	2	23%	0
VAN B. Boeser	1.8	0	0.60	0	26%	0
FLA S. Jones	1.8	5	0.54	2	13%	2
FLA A. Ekblad	1.6	2	0.50	1	12%	0
FLA G. Forsling	1.6	3	0.40	1	11%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	1.6	2	0.73	2	26%	2
VAN F. Hronek	1.3	3	0.42	1	6%	1
VAN T. Myers	1.2	0	0.25	1	4%	0
VAN D. O'Connor	1.2	2	0.29	1	13%	1
FLA N. Mikkola	1.1	0	0.23	1	6%	0
FLA N. Gregor	1.1	1	0.18	1	9%	0
VAN L. Karlsson	1.1	1	0.23	0	9%	0
VAN A. Räty	1.0	0	0.30	0	14%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	0.9	2	0.29	1	13%	0
VAN M. Pettersson	0.9	0	0.29	0	4%	0
FLA U. Balinskis	0.9	0	0.18	1	5%	0
VAN M. Sasson	0.9	2	0.23	1	12%	0
FLA A. Greer	0.9	3	0.23	1	10%	1
FLA L. Kunin	0.9	1	0.16	1	9%	1
VAN L. Reichel	0.8	0	0.24	0	9%	0
VAN M. MacEachern	0.8	0	0.24	0	8%	0
FLA J. Petry	0.8	0	0.25	0	4%	0
VAN T. Willander	0.7	0	0.18	1	3%	0
FLA C. Schwindt	0.7	0	0.19	0	8%	0
VAN D. Kampf	0.7	0	0.19	0	8%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	0.7	0	0.11	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.