Game Recap: VAN 2, MIN 3 (OT), December 3, 2024

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Game Recap

VAN2

Final/OTTue, Dec 3, 2024Every game that night

MIN3

MIN beat VAN 3-2 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.12 expected goals to 3.21. E. Pettersson led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). J. DeBrusk had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. F. Gustavsson stopped 30 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
VAN	1	1	0	0	2
MIN	0	1	1	1	3

1st 8:37VANQ. HughesPP0.02 xG
2nd 7:56MINF. Gaudreau0.09 xG
2nd 19:18VANJ. DeBrusk0.08 xG
3rd 1:43MINJ. Middleton0.13 xG
OT 4:36MINK. Kaprizov0.12 xG

Team Stats

VANMIN

32Shots on goal29

3.21Expected goals2.12

49Shot attempts62

205v5 shots on goal24

1/3Power play0/1

14Hits20

16Blocked shots7

2Penalty minutes6

14Giveaways21

6Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VAN 3.21 xGMIN 2.12 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VAN32 on goal, 2 scored

MIN29 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Pettersson	C	0	2	2	3	0	2	-1	0	20:20	3:46
C. Garland	RW	0	1	1	4	1	0	0	0	24:02	3:43
J. DeBrusk	LW	1	0	1	6	0	0	-1	0	19:38	3:02
B. Boeser	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-2	0	19:10	3:47
P. Suter	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	18:37	1:08
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	15:22	1:42
T. Blueger	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	15:07	0:03
K. Sherwood	LW	0	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	14:00	1:10
N. Hoglander	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	13:34	0:13
D. Heinen	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:11	0:00
M. Sasson	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:10	0:00
A. Räty	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:15	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	1	0	1	2	0	1	-3	0	27:00	4:15
C. Soucy	D	0	1	1	3	2	0	+1	2	20:11	0:00
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	21:55	1:12
N. Juulsen	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	+1	0	18:15	0:02
V. Desharnais	D	0	0	0	0	2	5	0	0	17:38	0:00
E. Brannstrom	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	16:05	0:42

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Lankinen	29	26	3	.897	63:54	OT loss
A. Silovs	0	0	0	–	0:00

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Kaprizov	LW	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	2	23:37	1:49
M. Rossi	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	18:52	1:34
M. Foligno	LW	0	1	1	2	2	0	+1	0	12:37	0:00
F. Gaudreau	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	12:16	0:11
M. Boldy	LW	0	0	0	6	3	0	0	0	21:28	1:49
J. Eriksson Ek	C	0	0	0	3	3	0	+1	0	21:11	1:49
M. Johansson	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	17:54	0:26
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	15:51	0:11
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	14:16	0:00
M. Khusnutdinov	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	2	11:35	0:00
B. Jones	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:14	0:00
D. Shore	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	8:13	0:00
B. Faber	D	0	1	1	0	0	3	+3	0	26:52	0:11
J. Middleton	D	1	0	1	2	3	0	+2	0	24:51	0:11
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	21:45	1:49
D. Chisholm	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	20:58	0:00
Z. Bogosian	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	14:35	0:00
J. Merrill	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	2	13:46	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Gustavsson	32	30	2	.938	64:36	Win
M. Fleury	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMarco Rossi VAN Faces MIN, his team until Nov 20251 A, 1 SOG
Old teamQuinn Hughes MIN Faces VAN, his team until Dec 20251 G, 2 SOG
HometownBrock Boeser VAN Plays near home (born in Burnsville)4 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VAN 2.8, MIN 3.1	VAN 2, MIN 3
Total goals	5.9	5
Shots on goal	VAN 25.9, MIN 29.1	VAN 32, MIN 29
Win chance	MIN 54%	MIN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.4	3	1.37	1	44%	1
MIN M. Boldy	3.1	6	0.94	0	31%	0
MIN J. Ek	2.8	3	0.79	0	28%	0
VAN C. Garland	2.6	4	0.74	1	26%	0
VAN Q. Hughes	2.4	2	0.94	1	11%	1
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.2	6	0.65	1	28%	1
VAN E. Pettersson	2.1	3	0.89	2	30%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.1	2	0.56	0	22%	0
VAN B. Boeser	2.0	4	0.71	0	28%	0
VAN K. Sherwood	1.9	1	0.47	0	19%	0
VAN P. Suter	1.8	1	0.45	0	20%	0
MIN M. Rossi	1.7	1	0.54	1	20%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.6	1	0.46	0	16%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.5	2	0.43	0	12%	0
MIN F. Gaudreau	1.5	3	0.42	1	16%	1
MIN B. Faber	1.4	0	0.50	1	10%	0
MIN J. Middleton	1.3	2	0.34	1	9%	1
VAN D. Heinen	1.2	1	0.39	0	16%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.2	0	0.23	0	14%	0
VAN T. Blueger	1.1	1	0.34	0	10%	0
MIN D. Chisholm	1.1	2	0.31	0	8%	0
VAN T. Myers	1.1	1	0.26	0	3%	0
VAN C. Soucy	1.0	3	0.20	1	6%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	1.0	1	0.17	0	5%	0
VAN E. Brannstrom	1.0	2	0.24	0	3%	0
VAN N. Hoglander	0.9	2	0.24	0	13%	0
VAN D. Joshua	0.9	0	0.39	0	17%	0
MIN M. Foligno	0.9	2	0.37	1	15%	0
VAN A. Räty	0.8	0	0.19	0	10%	0
MIN B. Jones	0.7	0	0.12	0	7%	0
MIN J. Merrill	0.7	0	0.16	0	5%	0
VAN N. Juulsen	0.7	1	0.11	0	2%	0
MIN D. Shore	0.6	1	0.17	0	6%	0
VAN V. Desharnais	0.5	0	0.11	0	1%	0
MIN M. Khusnutdinov	0.4	0	0.17	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.