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Game Recap
VAN4
MTL5
MTL beat VAN 5-4 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.11 expected goals to 2.77. J. Miller led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). S. Montembeault stopped 16 of 20.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| MTL | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
- 1st 1:07MTLC. Caufield0.09 xG
- 1st 10:47VANJ. Miller0.07 xG
- 2nd 3:21VANJ. Miller0.86 xG
- 2nd 3:41VANJ. Lekkerimäki0.10 xG
- 2nd 10:35MTLK. Guhle0.03 xG
- 3rd 2:01MTLK. DachPP0.17 xG
- 3rd 6:54MTLL. Hutson0.02 xG
- 3rd 8:51VANJ. DeBruskPP0.17 xG
- OT 0:48MTLN. SuzukiPP0.12 xG
Team Stats
VANMTL
20Shots on goal24
2.77Expected goals3.11
40Shot attempts64
135v5 shots on goal21
1/3Power play2/4
39Hits30
17Blocked shots9
8Penalty minutes6
16Giveaways16
4Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VAN 2.77 xGMTL 3.11 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Miller | C | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 18:37 | 3:12 |
| J. Lekkerimäki | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 13:47 | 0:11 |
| B. Boeser | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:05 | 3:19 |
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:00 | 3:18 |
| N. Hoglander | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 12:01 | 0:00 |
| P. Suter | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:08 | 0:04 |
| C. Garland | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 17:41 | 3:16 |
| D. Heinen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:08 | 0:00 |
| T. Blueger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:46 | 0:00 |
| K. Sherwood | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 13:47 | 0:00 |
| M. Sasson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:05 | 0:00 |
| P. Di Giuseppe | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 10:33 | 0:00 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 26:15 | 3:23 |
| T. Myers | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 20:55 | 0:00 |
| D. Forbort | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:51 | 0:00 |
| N. Juulsen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 18:07 | 0:07 |
| V. Desharnais | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:33 | 0:00 |
| C. Soucy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:21 | 0:05 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Lankinen | 24 | 19 | 5 | .792 | 60:41 | OT loss |
| A. Silovs | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Suzuki | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:03 | 3:55 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 20:32 | 3:50 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:38 | 3:07 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:24 | 1:00 |
| K. Dach | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:43 | 4:03 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:16 | 0:00 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:51 | 0:00 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 13:53 | 0:55 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 13:32 | 0:00 |
| A. Newhook | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:23 | 0:55 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:57 | 0:47 |
| M. Pezzetta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3:58 | 0:00 |
| L. Hutson | D | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 25:19 | 3:44 |
| K. Guhle | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:16 | 0:00 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:36 | 0:00 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 23:00 | 1:06 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:51 | 0:00 |
| J. Struble | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:59 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Montembeault | 20 | 16 | 4 | .800 | 60:37 | Win |
| J. Dobes | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VAN 3.2, MTL 3.0 | VAN 4, MTL 5 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | VAN 26.0, MTL 26.6 | VAN 20, MTL 24 |
| Win chance | VAN 52% | MTL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL C. Caufield | 3.0 | 3 | 0.81 | 2 | 32% | 1 |
| VAN C. Garland | 2.5 | 2 | 0.76 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| VAN Q. Hughes | 2.5 | 1 | 1.13 | 2 | 13% | 0 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 2.1 | 2 | 0.64 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| VAN B. Boeser | 2.1 | 1 | 0.80 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| VAN J. Miller | 2.0 | 3 | 0.99 | 4 | 29% | 2 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 2.0 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VAN K. Sherwood | 1.9 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 1.8 | 4 | 0.84 | 3 | 25% | 1 |
| VAN P. Suter | 1.7 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.7 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL J. Armia | 1.5 | 4 | 0.40 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.5 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VAN J. Lekkerimäki | 1.5 | 3 | 0.35 | 2 | 17% | 1 |
| MTL K. Dach | 1.5 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 1.4 | 1 | 0.56 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.2 | 3 | 0.43 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| VAN T. Blueger | 1.2 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VAN M. Sasson | 1.2 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VAN T. Myers | 1.2 | 0 | 0.33 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL C. Dvorak | 1.2 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VAN D. Heinen | 1.2 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.2 | 3 | 0.62 | 3 | 7% | 1 |
| MTL K. Guhle | 1.2 | 2 | 0.31 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 1.1 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VAN P. Giuseppe | 1.1 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VAN N. Hoglander | 1.1 | 0 | 0.31 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 1.1 | 0 | 0.31 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL E. Heineman | 1.1 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VAN C. Soucy | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 0.9 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MTL J. Struble | 0.7 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VAN D. Forbort | 0.7 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN N. Juulsen | 0.7 | 2 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VAN V. Desharnais | 0.6 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| MTL M. Pezzetta | 0.6 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.