VAN beat NJD 4-3 in a shootout, with the chances close: 4.28 expected goals to 3.79. T. Meier led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). Q. Hughes had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. T. Demko stopped 22 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| NJD | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
- 1st 10:09VANP. Suter0.18 xG
- 2nd 10:24NJDT. MeierPP0.04 xG
- 3rd 11:02NJDT. Meier0.10 xG
- 3rd 11:47VANJ. Lekkerimäki0.23 xG
- 3rd 13:25NJDE. Haula0.37 xG
- 3rd 19:24VANC. Garland0.59 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VAN 4.28 xGNJD 3.79 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Suter | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 23:02 | 2:30 |
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:48 | 2:20 |
| C. Garland | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:53 | 1:30 |
| N. Aman | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:09 | 0:06 |
| J. Lekkerimäki | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:52 | 1:00 |
| B. Boeser | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 22:58 | 2:38 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:46 | 0:06 |
| K. Sherwood | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 14:02 | 0:45 |
| T. Blueger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 13:44 | 0:00 |
| A. Räty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 12:07 | 0:31 |
| L. Karlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:28 | 1:34 |
| D. Joshua | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 11:02 | 0:00 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 19:07 | 0:06 |
| D. Forbort | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:32 | 0:02 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 31:38 | 3:52 |
| F. Hronek | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 25:13 | 2:28 |
| T. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:57 | 0:32 |
| V. Mancini | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:23 | 0:00 |
NJD Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Meier | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:13 | 2:06 |
| N. Hischier | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 24:30 | 2:08 |
| J. Bratt | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:28 | 2:30 |
| D. Mercer | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:25 | 1:43 |
| E. Haula | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:15 | 0:00 |
| C. Glass | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:24 | 0:15 |
| S. Noesen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:05 | 1:02 |
| O. Palat | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:20 | 0:37 |
| P. Cotter | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:54 | 0:00 |
| T. Tatar | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:37 | 0:39 |
| J. Dowling | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8:10 | 0:00 |
| N. Foote | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:00 | 0:00 |
| B. Dillon | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:20 | 0:00 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:47 | 0:00 |
| L. Hughes | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 24:35 | 1:43 |
| B. Pesce | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 24:01 | 0:00 |
| J. Kovacevic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 6 | 18:57 | 0:00 |
| D. Cholowski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:59 | 1:02 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Markstrom | 28 | 25 | 3 | .893 | 65:00 | OT loss |
| J. Allen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VAN 2.9, NJD 3.0 | VAN 4, NJD 3 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | VAN 24.3, NJD 26.0 | VAN 28, NJD 25 |
| Win chance | NJD 52% | VAN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD T. Meier | 2.9 | 4 | 0.77 | 2 | 32% | 2 |
| NJD N. Hischier | 2.5 | 1 | 0.93 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| VAN Q. Hughes | 2.5 | 6 | 1.03 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NJD J. Bratt | 2.3 | 2 | 1.08 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| VAN C. Garland | 2.0 | 2 | 0.54 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| NJD S. Noesen | 1.9 | 0 | 0.55 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 1.9 | 2 | 0.53 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| VAN B. Boeser | 1.9 | 1 | 0.69 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| NJD C. Glass | 1.6 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NJD L. Hughes | 1.6 | 1 | 0.63 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NJD E. Haula | 1.6 | 2 | 0.38 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| VAN K. Sherwood | 1.5 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| VAN P. Suter | 1.5 | 5 | 0.43 | 2 | 21% | 1 |
| NJD D. Mercer | 1.5 | 2 | 0.46 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| VAN F. Hronek | 1.4 | 4 | 0.50 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NJD B. Pesce | 1.3 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VAN D. O'Connor | 1.3 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VAN T. Myers | 1.2 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NJD O. Palat | 1.1 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| VAN J. Lekkerimäki | 1.1 | 2 | 0.22 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| VAN T. Blueger | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NJD N. Foote | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NJD T. Tatar | 1.0 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VAN V. Mancini | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN M. Pettersson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.31 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| NJD P. Cotter | 0.9 | 3 | 0.27 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NJD J. Kovacevic | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VAN D. Joshua | 0.9 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| VAN L. Karlsson | 0.8 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dumoulin | 0.7 | 2 | 0.25 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN A. Räty | 0.7 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NJD J. Dowling | 0.7 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dillon | 0.6 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| VAN D. Forbort | 0.6 | 1 | 0.14 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| NJD D. Cholowski | 0.6 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN N. Aman | 0.5 | 1 | 0.19 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.