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Game Recap
VAN1
FinalSat, Oct 10, 2026Every game that night
NJD4

NJD beat VAN 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.06 expected goals to 2.32. NJD outshot VAN 37 to 21. N. Hischier led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). J. DeBrusk had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. J. Allen stopped 20 of 21.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
VAN1001
NJD2204
  1. 1st 5:27VANL. KarlssonPP0.14 xG
  2. 1st 8:03NJDN. HischierPP0.15 xG
  3. 1st 16:24NJDJ. Boqvist0.34 xG
  4. 2nd 4:36NJDJ. BrattPP0.37 xG
  5. 2nd 19:50NJDN. HischierPP0.13 xG

Team Stats

VANNJD
21Shots on goal37
2.32Expected goals4.06
41Shot attempts64
195v5 shots on goal29
1/3Power play3/4
23Hits23
15Blocked shots7
8Penalty minutes6
9Giveaways17
6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VAN 2.32 xGNJD 4.06 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdVAN goal, 5:27NJD goal, 8:03NJD goal, 16:24NJD goal, 4:36NJD goal, 19:50

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VAN20 on goal, 1 scored
NJD37 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VAN Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
J. DeBruskLW0117210017:152:14
B. BoeserRW0111100416:582:18
L. KarlssonC1012000014:461:43
E. PetterssonC0003100017:321:19
D. O'ConnorLW0000110216:500:10
M. RossiC0002100015:462:07
P. CotterLW0000400015:110:50
J. LekkerimäkiRW0000110214:390:51
L. OhgrenLW0001100014:120:50
B. GallagherRW000111-1011:530:00
A. BainsLW000011-1011:000:00
M. SassonC000001-1010:400:00
Z. BuiumD000000-1024:361:01
T. WillanderD0001000021:050:00
E. PetterssonD0000220019:310:00
F. HronekD000210-1019:282:07
J. OleksiakD0000350016:290:00
L. SchennD0001320016:060:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Meriläinen34313.91254:33
K. Lankinen321.6675:27Loss

NJD Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
N. HischierC2134100018:594:03
J. HughesC0222010016:284:03
J. BrattLW1125400016:153:48
A. LombardiC011110+1014:060:11
A. GritsyukRW0111010012:570:15
J. BoqvistC101410+1012:290:10
L. EvangelistaRW0003000018:573:42
T. MeierRW0004400016:530:00
D. MercerC0003000014:110:00
C. GlassC000120+1014:060:00
E. RodriguesC0001110413:560:33
A. ManthaRW000210029:400:00
L. HughesD011100+1023:133:21
B. PesceD000201+1022:380:11
J. SiegenthalerD0000120019:370:00
D. HamiltonD0002200019:160:53
B. DillonD0001400016:370:00
D. ChisholmD0000110014:470:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Allen21201.95260:00Win
N. Daws000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VAN

Line 1B. Boeser14:24D. O'Connor14:37L. Ohgren13:05
Line 2J. DeBrusk14:14E. Pettersson13:43J. Lekkerimäki13:14
Line 3L. Karlsson13:03M. Rossi13:02P. Cotter13:42
Line 4B. Gallagher9:56M. Sasson9:21A. Bains9:51
Pair 1J. Oleksiak14:58T. Willander18:44
Pair 2L. Schenn15:43E. Pettersson16:11
Pair 3Z. Buium22:24F. Hronek14:03

NJD

Line 1L. Evangelista15:15N. Hischier13:14T. Meier15:17
Line 2C. Glass12:34A. Lombardi13:42J. Boqvist11:46
Line 3E. Rodrigues13:04D. Mercer12:47A. Gritsyuk12:10
Line 4J. Bratt11:04J. Hughes11:51A. Mantha9:40
Pair 1B. Pesce19:24L. Hughes18:45
Pair 2J. Siegenthaler18:31D. Hamilton16:30
Pair 3B. Dillon14:40D. Chisholm14:01

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

9 of 15 overs hit (60%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
NJD J. Hughes3.5-128+1102Under
NJD D. Hamilton2.5+110-1302Under
NJD E. Rodrigues2.5+136-1751Under
NJD J. Bratt2.5+138-1655Over
VAN J. DeBrusk2.5+120-1357Over
NJD L. Evangelista2.5+135-1563Over
NJD L. Hughes2.5+146-1551Under
NJD N. Hischier2.5+110-1154Over
NJD T. Meier2.5-170+1364Over
NJD A. Gritsyuk1.5-140+1201Under
NJD A. Mantha1.5-130+1052Over
VAN B. Boeser1.5-170+1501Under
NJD D. Mercer1.5-115-1053Over
VAN F. Hronek1.5-115-1102Over
VAN M. Rossi1.5+105-1552Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamPaul Cotter VAN Faces NJD, his team until Apr 20260 SOG
  • HometownDrew O'Connor VAN Plays near home (born in Chatham)0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreVAN 2.8, NJD 3.7VAN 1, NJD 4
Total goals6.55
Shots on goalVAN 23.8, NJD 32.4VAN 21, NJD 37
Win chanceNJD 63%NJD won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
NJD J. Hughes4.121.51241%0
NJD T. Meier3.640.80033%0
NJD N. Hischier2.641.02334%2
NJD D. Hamilton2.620.73018%0
VAN J. DeBrusk2.470.56126%0
NJD J. Bratt2.451.12228%1
NJD L. Evangelista2.430.79021%0
NJD L. Hughes2.310.79114%0
NJD A. Gritsyuk2.310.54119%0
NJD E. Rodrigues2.110.54018%0
VAN B. Boeser2.010.67127%0
NJD D. Mercer1.830.50022%0
VAN E. Pettersson1.830.79026%0
NJD A. Mantha1.720.73026%0
VAN F. Hronek1.720.6109%0
VAN L. Karlsson1.620.49117%1
VAN D. O'Connor1.400.32015%0
VAN M. Rossi1.420.63022%0
VAN L. Ohgren1.410.38015%0
VAN J. Lekkerimäki1.400.41018%0
NJD C. Glass1.410.38016%0
NJD B. Pesce1.320.3006%0
NJD J. Boqvist1.240.36115%1
VAN M. Sasson1.200.35018%0
VAN Z. Buium1.000.3307%0
VAN P. Cotter1.000.30016%0
VAN J. Oleksiak0.900.2205%0
VAN T. Willander0.910.3807%0
NJD J. Siegenthaler0.800.2503%0
NJD D. Chisholm0.800.2304%0
VAN E. Pettersson0.800.1605%0
VAN A. Bains0.700.1708%0
NJD B. Dillon0.610.2205%0

Shots on goal: 18 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.