VAN beat NSH 3-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.21 expected goals to 2.95. NSH outshot VAN 32 to 22. Q. Hughes led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). T. Demko stopped 31 of 32.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VAN 2.21 xGNSH 2.95 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Pettersson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 18:42 | 3:11 |
| P. Suter | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 18:30 | 1:20 |
| J. Miller | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:21 | 2:21 |
| N. Hoglander | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 10:35 | 0:44 |
| L. Karlsson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 10:23 | 1:03 |
| B. Boeser | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:26 | 3:14 |
| C. Garland | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:31 | 0:38 |
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:23 | 2:12 |
| D. Heinen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:14 | 0:00 |
| T. Blueger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:27 | 0:09 |
| D. Joshua | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11:48 | 0:01 |
| P. Di Giuseppe | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:24 | 0:01 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 24:36 | 3:49 |
| T. Myers | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 24:36 | 0:16 |
| D. Forbort | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:49 | 0:28 |
| F. Hronek | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:34 | 1:58 |
| N. Juulsen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:52 | 0:00 |
| C. Soucy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:58 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Demko | 32 | 31 | 1 | .969 | 59:51 | Win |
| K. Lankinen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z. L'Heureux | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:25 | 2:09 |
| T. Novak | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:58 | 2:34 |
| F. Forsberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 19:49 | 3:30 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:07 | 2:21 |
| R. O'Reilly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:59 | 3:27 |
| J. Marchessault | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:41 | 3:36 |
| S. Stamkos | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 17:39 | 3:24 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:12 | 0:00 |
| C. Sissons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:05 | 0:22 |
| F. Svechkov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:05 | 2:32 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 11:19 | 0:00 |
| V. Hinostroza | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:48 | 0:00 |
| J. Barron | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:52 | 0:00 |
| R. Josi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 23:30 | 3:28 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:43 | 2:32 |
| N. Blankenburg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:28 | 0:05 |
| A. Wilsby | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:24 | 0:00 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:01 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Saros | 21 | 19 | 2 | .905 | 58:38 | Loss |
| J. Annunen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VAN 2.7, NSH 2.9 | VAN 3, NSH 1 |
| Total goals | 5.6 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | VAN 25.0, NSH 29.5 | VAN 22, NSH 32 |
| Win chance | NSH 54% | VAN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH F. Forsberg | 3.5 | 5 | 1.07 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 3.2 | 1 | 0.90 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| NSH R. Josi | 2.9 | 4 | 0.90 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.5 | 2 | 0.93 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| VAN Q. Hughes | 2.5 | 2 | 1.03 | 2 | 17% | 0 |
| VAN C. Garland | 2.3 | 1 | 0.65 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| VAN J. Miller | 2.1 | 1 | 0.90 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| VAN B. Boeser | 2.0 | 3 | 0.71 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 1.9 | 1 | 0.74 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 1.9 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 1.9 | 2 | 0.71 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 1.9 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| VAN P. Suter | 1.7 | 1 | 0.44 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| NSH F. Svechkov | 1.6 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NSH T. Novak | 1.5 | 2 | 0.53 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| NSH G. Nyquist | 1.5 | 1 | 0.70 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| VAN F. Hronek | 1.4 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NSH N. Blankenburg | 1.4 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH Z. L'Heureux | 1.3 | 3 | 0.35 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.3 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NSH V. Hinostroza | 1.2 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NSH C. Sissons | 1.2 | 3 | 0.35 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VAN D. Heinen | 1.2 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VAN T. Myers | 1.2 | 1 | 0.31 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN P. Giuseppe | 1.2 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH J. Barron | 1.1 | 0 | 0.23 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| VAN N. Hoglander | 1.1 | 2 | 0.28 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| VAN T. Blueger | 1.1 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NSH L. Schenn | 1.1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NSH A. Wilsby | 1.1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NSH C. Smith | 1.0 | 3 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VAN C. Soucy | 1.0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VAN D. Joshua | 0.8 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| VAN D. Forbort | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN L. Karlsson | 0.8 | 2 | 0.13 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| VAN N. Juulsen | 0.8 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.