Game Recap: VAN 2, PHI 5, December 22, 2025

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Game Recap

VAN2

FinalMon, Dec 22, 2025Every game that night

PHI5

PHI beat VAN 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 5.31 expected goals to 2.28. PHI outshot VAN 39 to 25. N. Grebenkin led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). O. Tippett had 10 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. D. Vladar stopped 23 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VAN	0	0	2	2
PHI	0	1	4	5

2nd 13:13PHIN. Grebenkin0.07 xG
3rd 5:58PHIC. Grundstrom0.05 xG
3rd 7:49PHIC. Dvorak0.53 xG
3rd 13:05VANM. Sasson0.45 xG
3rd 15:35PHIO. Tippett0.22 xG
3rd 18:49PHIM. MichkovEN0.70 xG
3rd 19:42VAND. O'Connor0.22 xG

Team Stats

VANPHI

25Shots on goal39

2.28Expected goals5.31

50Shot attempts67

245v5 shots on goal32

0/2Power play0/1

33Hits14

18Blocked shots12

2Penalty minutes4

12Giveaways12

3Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VAN 2.28 xGPHI 5.31 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VAN23 on goal, 2 scored

PHI38 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Garland	RW	0	1	1	2	2	3	-1	0	18:34	3:19
D. O'Connor	LW	1	0	1	1	3	0	+1	0	15:06	0:00
M. Sasson	C	1	0	1	2	0	2	-1	0	12:11	0:00
M. Rossi	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	20:51	3:19
B. Boeser	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	19:28	3:19
E. Kane	LW	0	0	0	4	2	1	-2	0	18:59	0:41
K. Sherwood	LW	0	0	0	3	11	2	-1	0	16:17	0:41
D. Kampf	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	14:38	0:00
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	12:52	3:16
L. Ohgren	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	12:35	0:00
L. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	10:24	0:41
A. Räty	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:14	0:00
Z. Buium	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	-1	0	21:13	3:19
T. Myers	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	+2	2	20:28	0:00
E. Pettersson	D	0	1	1	2	3	1	0	0	16:37	0:00
F. Hronek	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-4	0	22:09	0:44
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-2	0	21:02	0:00
T. Willander	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	15:38	0:41

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Demko	38	34	4	.895	58:44	Loss
K. Lankinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Abols	C	0	2	2	1	1	2	+2	0	14:07	0:00
N. Grebenkin	RW	1	1	2	2	1	1	+2	0	12:16	0:00
T. Zegras	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	16:37	1:03
T. Konecny	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	16:11	1:06
C. Dvorak	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	2	16:00	0:05
N. Cates	LW	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	14:41	0:58
O. Tippett	RW	1	0	1	10	2	2	0	0	14:19	0:57
M. Michkov	RW	1	0	1	4	1	0	+1	0	13:57	0:54
C. Grundstrom	RW	1	0	1	5	0	0	+2	0	12:55	0:00
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	15:54	0:00
B. Brink	RW	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	0	15:09	1:00
D. Barkey	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	2	14:26	0:57
C. York	D	0	1	1	3	1	0	+2	0	23:00	0:49
E. Andrae	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+2	0	19:10	0:00
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	0	22:56	0:55
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	19:36	1:06
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	17:41	0:05
R. Ristolainen	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	17:05	0:05

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Vladar	25	23	2	.920	60:00	Win
S. Ersson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VAN

Line 1E. Kane17:55M. Rossi17:04B. Boeser15:43

Line 2K. Sherwood13:25D. O'Connor13:22A. Räty10:14

Line 3M. Sasson12:11L. Ohgren12:35L. Karlsson9:43

Line 4C. Garland13:20J. DeBrusk9:05D. Kampf13:12

Pair 1M. Pettersson19:29F. Hronek19:09

Pair 2T. Myers20:28E. Pettersson15:15

Pair 3Z. Buium16:38T. Willander14:52

PHI

Line 1C. Dvorak15:55T. Zegras15:34T. Konecny13:13

Line 2O. Tippett13:22D. Barkey13:29S. Couturier13:18

Line 3B. Brink13:41N. Cates12:09M. Michkov12:36

Line 4R. Abols11:49C. Grundstrom11:15N. Grebenkin11:27

Pair 1T. Sanheim18:44C. York19:06

Pair 2E. Andrae18:42J. Drysdale18:03

Pair 3N. Seeler15:55R. Ristolainen15:22

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VAN 2.9, PHI 2.8	VAN 2, PHI 5
Total goals	5.7	7
Shots on goal	VAN 23.9, PHI 26.3	VAN 25, PHI 39
Win chance	VAN 51%	PHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
PHI O. Tippett	2.5	10	0.68	1	26%	1
PHI T. Konecny	2.4	1	0.93	1	28%	0
PHI T. Zegras	2.3	1	0.88	1	27%	0
VAN E. Kane	2.2	4	0.53	0	25%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.2	2	0.58	0	27%	0
VAN C. Garland	2.2	2	0.66	1	24%	0
VAN B. Boeser	2.1	2	0.73	0	31%	0
PHI M. Michkov	2.1	4	0.66	1	22%	1
PHI S. Couturier	2.0	2	0.62	0	17%	0
PHI C. Grundstrom	2.0	5	0.32	1	17%	1
VAN K. Sherwood	2.0	3	0.55	0	25%	0
PHI C. Dvorak	1.6	1	0.58	1	18%	1
PHI N. Cates	1.6	0	0.53	1	18%	0
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.6	1	0.28	0	6%	0
VAN M. Rossi	1.6	1	0.63	0	23%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.6	3	0.54	0	18%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.5	0	0.43	0	11%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.4	2	0.54	0	8%	0
VAN L. Karlsson	1.3	0	0.36	0	15%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.3	3	0.22	0	4%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.2	0	0.42	0	10%	0
PHI E. Andrae	1.1	0	0.26	1	4%	0
PHI R. Abols	1.1	1	0.21	2	10%	0
VAN D. O'Connor	1.1	1	0.29	1	13%	1
VAN L. Ohgren	1.1	1	0.19	0	10%	0
VAN T. Myers	1.1	1	0.29	1	5%	0
PHI C. York	1.1	3	0.36	1	8%	0
VAN M. Sasson	1.0	2	0.26	1	14%	1
VAN A. Räty	1.0	0	0.34	0	14%	0
VAN D. Kampf	0.9	1	0.27	0	11%	0
VAN Z. Buium	0.9	0	0.42	1	8%	0
VAN M. Pettersson	0.9	1	0.33	0	5%	0
VAN T. Willander	0.7	0	0.30	0	4%	0
PHI N. Grebenkin	0.7	2	0.20	2	9%	1
VAN E. Pettersson	0.6	2	0.16	1	4%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.