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Game Recap
VAN4
SEA3
VAN beat SEA 4-3 in a shootout, with the chances close: 2.90 expected goals to 2.71. V. Dunn led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). T. Myers had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. K. Lankinen stopped 13 of 15.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| SEA | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
- 1st 1:52SEAC. Stephenson0.02 xG
- 1st 13:17VANM. Sasson0.43 xG
- 2nd 7:49VANC. Garland0.19 xG
- 3rd 5:35VANT. Myers0.07 xG
- 3rd 9:05SEAM. BeniersPP0.13 xG
- 3rd 19:07SEAV. Dunn0.02 xG
Team Stats
VANSEA
22Shots on goal27
2.90Expected goals2.71
63Shot attempts61
195v5 shots on goal17
0/2Power play1/2
20Hits19
16Blocked shots17
6Penalty minutes6
11Giveaways15
10Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VAN 2.90 xGSEA 2.71 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Garland | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:35 | 2:56 |
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:54 | 3:10 |
| J. Miller | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 15:41 | 2:26 |
| D. Heinen | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:25 | 0:49 |
| P. Di Giuseppe | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:30 | 0:00 |
| N. Hoglander | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:24 | 0:00 |
| M. Sasson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 11:36 | 0:14 |
| P. Suter | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:25 | 0:53 |
| K. Sherwood | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:47 | 0:49 |
| T. Blueger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:38 | 0:09 |
| B. Boeser | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:43 | 3:00 |
| D. Joshua | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 14:23 | 1:05 |
| T. Myers | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 25:47 | 2:37 |
| D. Forbort | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:59 | 0:16 |
| C. Soucy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:15 | 1:19 |
| V. Desharnais | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:18 | 0:09 |
| N. Juulsen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:12 | 0:08 |
| G. Brisebois | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:31 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Demko | 12 | 11 | 1 | .917 | 27:49 | |
| K. Lankinen | 15 | 13 | 2 | .867 | 37:11 | Win |
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Beniers | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:47 | 1:44 |
| A. Burakovsky | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 15:08 | 1:44 |
| C. Stephenson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:17 | 2:13 |
| S. Wright | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13:39 | 1:40 |
| J. McCann | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:53 | 2:17 |
| J. Schwartz | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 18:30 | 2:14 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:38 | 1:39 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:24 | 0:00 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 15:26 | 0:00 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:18 | 2:16 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:40 | 0:00 |
| T. Kartye | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 10:02 | 0:00 |
| V. Dunn | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 25:22 | 2:20 |
| B. Montour | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 26:09 | 1:38 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:22 | 0:00 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18:42 | 0:00 |
| R. Evans | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:34 | 0:00 |
| J. Mahura | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 10:57 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Grubauer | 22 | 19 | 3 | .864 | 63:12 | OT loss |
| A. Stezka | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VAN 3.0, SEA 3.0 | VAN 4, SEA 3 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | VAN 24.9, SEA 27.5 | VAN 22, SEA 27 |
| Win chance | SEA 50% | VAN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA J. McCann | 2.4 | 5 | 0.79 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.4 | 3 | 0.58 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| VAN C. Garland | 2.3 | 4 | 0.73 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 2.0 | 2 | 0.60 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| SEA O. Bjorkstrand | 1.9 | 4 | 0.66 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 1.9 | 1 | 0.60 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| VAN B. Boeser | 1.9 | 1 | 0.76 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| VAN J. Miller | 1.8 | 0 | 0.93 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 1.7 | 2 | 0.64 | 2 | 16% | 1 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.6 | 2 | 0.55 | 2 | 20% | 1 |
| VAN K. Sherwood | 1.6 | 3 | 0.45 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.6 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| VAN P. Suter | 1.5 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| SEA K. Kakko | 1.5 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| SEA A. Burakovsky | 1.5 | 2 | 0.48 | 2 | 16% | 0 |
| SEA Y. Gourde | 1.4 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| SEA B. Tanev | 1.3 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VAN T. Blueger | 1.1 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.1 | 1 | 0.50 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.1 | 2 | 0.69 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| VAN D. Heinen | 1.1 | 0 | 0.41 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| VAN C. Soucy | 1.1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VAN M. Sasson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.33 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| VAN T. Myers | 1.0 | 5 | 0.25 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| SEA R. Evans | 1.0 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VAN P. Giuseppe | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| SEA T. Kartye | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VAN N. Hoglander | 0.9 | 2 | 0.27 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 0.8 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN G. Brisebois | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SEA J. Mahura | 0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN D. Joshua | 0.7 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| VAN N. Juulsen | 0.7 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VAN D. Forbort | 0.6 | 0 | 0.16 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN V. Desharnais | 0.5 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.