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Game Recap
VAN3
SEA6
SEA beat VAN 6-3 despite fewer good chances: 2.43 expected goals to 3.13. E. Tolvanen led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). A. Burakovsky had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. J. Daccord stopped 28 of 31.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| SEA | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
- 1st 5:47SEAA. Burakovsky0.14 xG
- 1st 11:35VANP. Suter0.02 xG
- 1st 16:27VANF. Chytil0.09 xG
- 2nd 4:11SEAO. Bjorkstrand0.08 xG
- 2nd 8:05VAND. JoshuaSH0.35 xG
- 2nd 12:08SEAM. Beniers0.01 xG
- 2nd 13:08SEAE. Tolvanen0.08 xG
- 3rd 5:38SEAB. Montour0.06 xG
- 3rd 18:29SEAE. TolvanenEN0.65 xG
Team Stats
VANSEA
31Shots on goal24
3.13Expected goals2.43
72Shot attempts53
265v5 shots on goal21
0/2Power play0/2
29Hits24
20Blocked shots12
4Penalty minutes4
12Giveaways13
2Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VAN 3.13 xGSEA 2.43 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Chytil | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:29 | 2:51 |
| P. Suter | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:00 | 1:00 |
| D. Joshua | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:00 | 0:53 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:14 | 0:00 |
| B. Boeser | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:42 | 2:53 |
| C. Garland | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:50 | 2:53 |
| E. Pettersson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 16:14 | 1:41 |
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:47 | 2:23 |
| N. Hoglander | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:32 | 1:01 |
| T. Blueger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 12:25 | 0:08 |
| K. Sherwood | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:25 | 0:06 |
| A. Bains | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 9:03 | 0:04 |
| T. Myers | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:29 | 0:08 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:00 | 0:07 |
| F. Hronek | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 2 | 22:02 | 0:00 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 21:56 | 3:52 |
| D. Forbort | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:10 | 0:00 |
| C. Soucy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:44 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Lankinen | 23 | 18 | 5 | .783 | 57:58 | Loss |
| A. Silovs | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:13 | 0:00 |
| S. Wright | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:28 | 2:48 |
| C. Stephenson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:54 | 1:30 |
| M. Beniers | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:40 | 2:24 |
| J. McCann | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:57 | 1:48 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:06 | 0:58 |
| J. Eberle | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:12 | 1:33 |
| A. Burakovsky | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 11:21 | 0:00 |
| J. Schwartz | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:48 | 2:15 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:34 | 2:26 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:47 | 0:00 |
| B. Meyers | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 6:54 | 0:00 |
| V. Dunn | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:57 | 1:35 |
| B. Montour | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:36 | 2:25 |
| R. Evans | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:58 | 0:00 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:07 | 0:00 |
| J. Mahura | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:45 | 0:00 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 16:43 | 0:18 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Daccord | 31 | 28 | 3 | .903 | 60:00 | Win |
| N. Kokko | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VAN 2.8, SEA 2.8 | VAN 3, SEA 6 |
| Total goals | 5.6 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | VAN 24.6, SEA 26.1 | VAN 31, SEA 24 |
| Win chance | VAN 50% | SEA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN F. Chytil | 2.5 | 4 | 0.58 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 2.3 | 1 | 0.61 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| VAN Q. Hughes | 2.3 | 1 | 0.95 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SEA J. McCann | 2.2 | 0 | 0.70 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.1 | 3 | 0.43 | 2 | 14% | 1 |
| VAN B. Boeser | 2.1 | 0 | 0.76 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 2.0 | 0 | 0.64 | 2 | 17% | 0 |
| VAN C. Garland | 2.0 | 2 | 0.58 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| SEA K. Kakko | 1.9 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 1.9 | 5 | 0.57 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.8 | 2 | 0.61 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| SEA O. Bjorkstrand | 1.8 | 3 | 0.58 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 1.8 | 0 | 0.78 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| VAN D. O'Connor | 1.7 | 3 | 0.36 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| VAN K. Sherwood | 1.6 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SEA J. Eberle | 1.6 | 0 | 0.51 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| VAN P. Suter | 1.6 | 1 | 0.45 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.6 | 4 | 0.43 | 2 | 18% | 2 |
| VAN F. Hronek | 1.5 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SEA A. Burakovsky | 1.5 | 6 | 0.45 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| VAN N. Hoglander | 1.3 | 3 | 0.35 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.3 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.72 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| SEA B. Tanev | 1.2 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VAN T. Myers | 1.1 | 4 | 0.31 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.1 | 0 | 0.61 | 2 | 20% | 0 |
| VAN T. Blueger | 1.1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SEA J. Mahura | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VAN M. Pettersson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.32 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VAN D. Joshua | 1.0 | 3 | 0.41 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| SEA R. Evans | 0.8 | 0 | 0.29 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| VAN C. Soucy | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN D. Forbort | 0.7 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SEA B. Meyers | 0.6 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VAN A. Bains | 0.6 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 12 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.