Game Recap: VAN 3, SJS 2, November 2, 2024

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Game Recap

VAN3

FinalSat, Nov 2, 2024Every game that night

SJS2

VAN beat SJS 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 2.96 expected goals to 1.79. P. Suter led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). Q. Hughes had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. K. Lankinen stopped 21 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VAN	0	1	2	3
SJS	0	1	1	2

2nd 2:37SJSN. Sturm0.16 xG
2nd 14:41VANP. Suter0.14 xG
3rd 15:38VANJ. DeBrusk0.07 xG
3rd 18:43SJSM. Granlund0.06 xG
3rd 19:34VANP. Suter0.10 xG

Team Stats

VANSJS

28Shots on goal23

2.96Expected goals1.79

70Shot attempts49

255v5 shots on goal21

0/2Power play0/2

24Hits21

13Blocked shots22

4Penalty minutes4

25Giveaways16

5Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VAN 2.96 xGSJS 1.79 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VAN27 on goal, 3 scored

SJS23 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Garland	RW	0	2	2	1	1	0	+2	0	20:06	2:53
P. Suter	C	2	0	2	3	1	0	+2	0	12:39	0:07
J. DeBrusk	LW	1	0	1	2	3	0	0	0	14:35	0:47
N. Hoglander	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	10:14	0:45
E. Pettersson	C	0	0	0	1	0	4	+1	0	19:39	2:56
J. Miller	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	2	19:26	3:26
B. Boeser	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	18:30	3:05
D. Heinen	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	14:46	0:47
T. Blueger	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	14:31	0:00
K. Sherwood	LW	0	0	0	1	5	1	-1	0	12:53	0:00
A. Bains	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	11:35	0:00
D. Sprong	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	10:38	1:06
Q. Hughes	D	0	1	1	6	0	1	0	0	25:57	2:56
F. Hronek	D	0	1	1	1	2	0	+2	2	24:49	1:04
C. Soucy	D	0	1	1	2	0	3	+1	0	18:52	0:00
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	3	2	4	0	0	20:46	0:00
D. Forbort	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	15:18	0:08
E. Brannstrom	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:47	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Lankinen	23	21	2	.913	59:59	Win
A. Silovs	0	0	0	–	0:00

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Granlund	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	-1	0	22:08	2:28
W. Eklund	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	19:56	2:27
L. Kunin	C	0	1	1	1	4	3	0	0	16:24	1:33
T. Toffoli	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	15:50	1:28
N. Sturm	C	1	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	8:50	0:00
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	0	1	3	+1	0	18:06	1:34
A. Wennberg	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	17:06	2:23
E. Cardwell	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	16:23	0:00
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	14:57	1:33
W. Smith	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:57	1:29
D. Gushchin	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	10:12	1:01
C. Grundstrom	RW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	8:08	0:00
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	24:12	0:04
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	0	4	2	-1	0	21:00	0:11
J. Walman	D	0	0	0	3	2	2	-2	0	20:35	1:09
J. Rutta	D	0	0	0	4	0	3	-1	0	18:30	0:00
T. Liljegren	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+2	0	16:57	2:40
H. Thrun	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	12:57	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	28	25	3	.893	58:52	Loss
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamKiefer Sherwood SJS Faces VAN, his team until Jan 20261 SOG
BirthdayFilip Hronek VAN Turns 27 that day1 A, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VAN 3.6, SJS 2.6	VAN 3, SJS 2
Total goals	6.2	5
Shots on goal	VAN 29.4, SJS 25.6	VAN 28, SJS 23
Win chance	VAN 66%	VAN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
SJS T. Toffoli	2.8	0	0.74	1	30%	0
VAN C. Garland	2.6	1	0.77	2	26%	0
VAN Q. Hughes	2.6	6	1.16	1	14%	0
VAN J. Miller	2.4	2	1.23	0	34%	0
VAN B. Boeser	2.4	2	0.95	0	34%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	2.3	1	1.04	0	33%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.1	2	0.67	1	28%	1
SJS F. Zetterlund	2.1	0	0.51	0	20%	0
SJS M. Granlund	2.1	3	0.81	1	17%	1
VAN D. Sprong	2.1	2	0.60	0	23%	0
SJS J. Walman	2.0	3	0.39	0	16%	0
SJS W. Eklund	1.8	1	0.65	1	19%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.7	1	0.56	1	9%	0
VAN K. Sherwood	1.7	1	0.48	0	18%	0
VAN N. Hoglander	1.6	0	0.49	1	23%	0
VAN D. Heinen	1.5	1	0.51	0	21%	0
VAN P. Suter	1.5	3	0.39	2	17%	2
SJS W. Smith	1.4	0	0.30	0	15%	0
SJS D. Gushchin	1.3	2	0.32	0	13%	0
SJS C. Ceci	1.3	0	0.30	0	7%	0
SJS L. Kunin	1.3	1	0.30	1	15%	0
SJS C. Grundstrom	1.3	2	0.23	0	12%	0
VAN T. Myers	1.3	3	0.32	0	4%	0
VAN T. Blueger	1.2	0	0.41	0	11%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.2	3	0.43	0	14%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.2	0	0.21	0	5%	0
VAN E. Brannstrom	1.1	1	0.30	0	3%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	1.1	1	0.31	0	13%	0
VAN C. Soucy	1.0	2	0.28	1	8%	0
SJS J. Rutta	1.0	4	0.24	0	7%	0
SJS T. Liljegren	0.9	1	0.31	0	7%	0
VAN A. Bains	0.8	0	0.20	0	13%	0
SJS N. Sturm	0.8	1	0.21	1	9%	1
VAN D. Forbort	0.8	0	0.21	0	6%	0
SJS H. Thrun	0.7	0	0.18	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.