Game Recap: VAN 2, SJS 3, November 28, 2025

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Game Recap

VAN2

FinalFri, Nov 28, 2025Every game that night

SJS3

SJS beat VAN 3-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.71 expected goals to 4.24. VAN outshot SJS 34 to 24. M. Celebrini led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). A. Gaudette had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. Y. Askarov stopped 32 of 34.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VAN	1	1	0	2
SJS	1	2	0	3

1st 4:28VANB. Boeser0.06 xG
1st 9:25SJSW. SmithPP0.10 xG
2nd 3:04VANE. Pettersson0.07 xG
2nd 14:03SJSW. EklundPP0.16 xG
2nd 15:17SJSA. Gaudette0.26 xG

Team Stats

VANSJS

34Shots on goal24

4.24Expected goals2.71

65Shot attempts43

185v5 shots on goal14

0/8Power play2/6

17Hits14

9Blocked shots15

16Penalty minutes22

12Giveaways11

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VAN 4.24 xGSJS 2.71 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VAN34 on goal, 2 scored

SJS24 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Garland	RW	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	2	24:28	7:36
B. Boeser	RW	1	0	1	5	1	0	+1	0	21:19	8:04
E. Pettersson	C	1	0	1	5	1	1	+1	4	20:12	8:09
E. Kane	LW	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	2	14:09	3:42
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	0	0	5	1	0	+1	0	19:41	8:01
K. Sherwood	LW	0	0	0	4	4	1	-1	0	17:57	4:45
D. Kampf	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	14:30	0:02
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	13:17	0:00
M. Sasson	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	11:39	0:12
L. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	8:43	3:02
A. Bains	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	5:58	0:00
L. Reichel	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4:59	0:00
F. Hronek	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	24:13	3:19
T. Willander	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	13:52	1:29
Q. Hughes	D	0	0	0	4	0	2	+1	4	28:19	9:57
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	17:31	0:30
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	16:44	0:00
E. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	11:18	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
N. Tolopilo	24	21	3	.875	58:11	Loss
J. Patera	0	0	0	–	0:00

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Celebrini	C	0	2	2	1	0	0	-1	4	18:30	6:25
A. Wennberg	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	-1	0	21:54	6:25
W. Smith	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	-1	2	18:24	6:22
W. Eklund	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	-1	4	16:26	4:50
P. Kurashev	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	13:03	1:56
A. Gaudette	RW	1	0	1	5	0	0	0	0	12:35	1:56
T. Toffoli	C	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	0	11:09	2:32
T. Dellandrea	C	0	0	0	1	4	2	0	2	20:03	0:00
C. Graf	RW	0	0	0	1	2	3	0	0	17:08	0:00
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	8:42	0:00
R. Reaves	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6:15	0:00
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	5:38	0:00
J. Klingberg	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	18:43	3:25
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	27:36	0:22
D. Orlov	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	19:57	6:07
T. Liljegren	D	0	0	0	1	1	4	-2	4	19:24	1:25
V. Iorio	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	0	2	15:13	0:00
S. Dickinson	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	14:12	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
Y. Askarov	34	32	2	.941	59:42	Win
A. Nedeljkovic	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VAN

Line 1B. Boeser12:21C. Garland13:33D. Kampf11:33

Line 2D. O'Connor9:36M. Sasson9:48K. Sherwood9:03

Line 3J. DeBrusk7:48E. Pettersson7:54E. Kane8:47

Line 4L. Reichel4:59A. Bains5:40L. Karlsson5:22

Pair 1Q. Hughes15:48F. Hronek14:53

Pair 2T. Myers10:19E. Pettersson9:53

Pair 3M. Pettersson10:01T. Willander10:22

SJS

Line 1A. Wennberg10:36W. Eklund11:33A. Gaudette10:36

Line 2W. Smith10:26M. Celebrini9:58T. Toffoli7:57

Line 3P. Kurashev9:39T. Dellandrea9:44C. Graf8:32

Line 4R. Reaves6:15Z. Ostapchuk5:38B. Goodrow5:15

Pair 1J. Klingberg12:27M. Ferraro14:42

Pair 2D. Orlov12:29T. Liljegren10:59

Pair 3V. Iorio10:40S. Dickinson10:14

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamKiefer Sherwood SJS Faces VAN, his team until Jan 20264 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VAN 3.5, SJS 2.9	VAN 2, SJS 3
Total goals	6.4	5
Shots on goal	VAN 28.5, SJS 26.7	VAN 34, SJS 24
Win chance	VAN 58%	SJS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
SJS M. Celebrini	3.1	1	1.11	2	32%	0
VAN E. Kane	2.8	0	0.64	1	30%	0
VAN Q. Hughes	2.8	4	1.20	0	16%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.6	5	0.68	0	32%	0
VAN C. Garland	2.5	3	0.73	1	26%	0
VAN B. Boeser	2.3	5	0.84	1	33%	1
SJS W. Smith	2.2	3	0.84	1	25%	1
VAN E. Pettersson	2.1	5	1.02	1	33%	1
SJS T. Toffoli	2.1	4	0.62	1	26%	0
SJS W. Eklund	2.1	2	0.80	1	22%	1
VAN K. Sherwood	2.0	4	0.67	0	27%	0
SJS J. Klingberg	1.6	2	0.57	1	13%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.5	1	0.58	1	9%	0
SJS D. Orlov	1.5	1	0.50	0	10%	0
SJS P. Kurashev	1.4	0	0.49	1	16%	0
VAN D. O'Connor	1.4	1	0.37	0	16%	0
VAN L. Karlsson	1.3	2	0.32	0	13%	0
SJS A. Gaudette	1.3	5	0.38	1	19%	1
VAN T. Myers	1.3	2	0.33	0	6%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.2	1	0.58	1	18%	0
SJS T. Dellandrea	1.2	1	0.29	0	10%	0
SJS T. Liljegren	1.2	1	0.32	0	8%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.1	1	0.44	0	15%	0
SJS S. Dickinson	1.0	1	0.17	0	6%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.0	0	0.24	0	5%	0
VAN D. Kampf	1.0	1	0.28	0	11%	0
VAN L. Reichel	1.0	0	0.31	0	12%	0
VAN M. Sasson	1.0	1	0.30	0	15%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.9	1	0.21	0	10%	0
VAN M. Pettersson	0.9	0	0.36	0	5%	0
SJS V. Iorio	0.8	0	0.13	0	4%	0
VAN T. Willander	0.7	0	0.29	1	3%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	0.7	0	0.12	0	3%	0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.6	0	0.10	0	6%	0
SJS R. Reaves	0.6	0	0.14	0	6%	0
VAN A. Bains	0.6	0	0.11	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.