VAN beat STL 5-2, with the chances close: 2.98 expected goals to 2.29. C. Garland led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). E. Pettersson had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. K. Lankinen stopped 24 of 26.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VAN 2.98 xGSTL 2.29 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Garland | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 20:15 | 2:01 |
| P. Suter | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 19:30 | 0:00 |
| J. Miller | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 16:53 | 2:01 |
| B. Boeser | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:22 | 2:01 |
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:46 | 0:00 |
| E. Pettersson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:24 | 2:01 |
| D. Heinen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:34 | 0:00 |
| T. Blueger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:57 | 0:00 |
| P. Di Giuseppe | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:42 | 0:00 |
| L. Karlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:48 | 0:00 |
| N. Hoglander | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10:35 | 0:00 |
| M. Sasson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:46 | 0:00 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 24:25 | 2:01 |
| T. Myers | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 2 | 22:58 | 0:00 |
| F. Hronek | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:35 | 0:00 |
| D. Forbort | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 21:04 | 0:00 |
| C. Soucy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 16:22 | 0:00 |
| E. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:53 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Lankinen | 26 | 24 | 2 | .923 | 60:00 | Win |
| T. Demko | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:21 | 3:23 |
| D. Holloway | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:55 | 2:16 |
| M. Joseph | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:43 | 0:50 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:28 | 3:53 |
| R. Thomas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 19:23 | 3:47 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:08 | 3:21 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 5 | 16:58 | 1:52 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:51 | 2:39 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 13:40 | 2:12 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:35 | 1:04 |
| B. Saad | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:58 | 2:14 |
| N. Walker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:47 | 2:07 |
| C. Parayko | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:24 | 0:56 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:16 | 3:04 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:36 | 3:54 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17:31 | 1:04 |
| R. Suter | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:27 | 0:00 |
| T. Tucker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:09 | 1:04 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Binnington | 18 | 15 | 3 | .833 | 28:26 | Loss |
| J. Hofer | 11 | 10 | 1 | .909 | 29:08 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VAN 2.7, STL 2.9 | VAN 5, STL 2 |
| Total goals | 5.6 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | VAN 24.6, STL 26.7 | VAN 30, STL 26 |
| Win chance | STL 54% | VAN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.7 | 2 | 0.89 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| VAN Q. Hughes | 2.4 | 3 | 0.98 | 2 | 15% | 0 |
| STL D. Holloway | 2.2 | 2 | 0.67 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| VAN C. Garland | 2.2 | 6 | 0.61 | 2 | 22% | 2 |
| VAN J. Miller | 2.1 | 2 | 0.90 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| VAN B. Boeser | 2.0 | 1 | 0.71 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 1.9 | 2 | 0.78 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| STL R. Thomas | 1.9 | 2 | 0.91 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 1.9 | 0 | 0.53 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 1.9 | 7 | 0.76 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.8 | 0 | 0.67 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| VAN P. Suter | 1.7 | 1 | 0.41 | 2 | 19% | 1 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.7 | 4 | 0.39 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| STL B. Saad | 1.6 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.6 | 2 | 0.46 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 1.5 | 2 | 0.42 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| VAN F. Hronek | 1.5 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL Z. Bolduc | 1.4 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.3 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VAN D. Heinen | 1.2 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VAN P. Giuseppe | 1.1 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VAN N. Hoglander | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VAN T. Myers | 1.1 | 5 | 0.28 | 2 | 4% | 1 |
| VAN T. Blueger | 1.1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VAN M. Sasson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL M. Joseph | 1.0 | 3 | 0.29 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| VAN C. Soucy | 1.0 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| STL R. Faksa | 0.9 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL N. Walker | 0.9 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| STL T. Tucker | 0.8 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VAN D. Forbort | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| STL R. Suter | 0.7 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN L. Karlsson | 0.7 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.