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Game Recap
VAN2
TBL4
TBL beat VAN 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 5.50 expected goals to 1.84. TBL outshot VAN 35 to 14. N. Kucherov led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). N. Kucherov had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.5. D. Hildeby stopped 12 of 14.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| TBL | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
- 1st 15:32VANL. Karlsson0.02 xG
- 2nd 4:35VANE. PetterssonPP0.27 xG
- 2nd 6:30TBLN. KucherovPP0.26 xG
- 2nd 11:23TBLN. Kucherov0.04 xG
- 3rd 2:04TBLJ. Guentzel0.06 xG
- 3rd 15:57TBLP. Holmberg0.13 xG
Team Stats
VANTBL
14Shots on goal35
1.84Expected goals5.50
51Shot attempts72
125v5 shots on goal31
1/2Power play1/1
17Hits21
16Blocked shots21
4Penalty minutes6
12Giveaways11
3Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VAN 1.84 xGTBL 5.50 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Boeser | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:32 | 2:30 |
| F. Chytil | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:31 | 1:00 |
| E. Pettersson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:00 | 2:16 |
| L. Karlsson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:49 | 0:46 |
| P. Cotter | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:33 | 0:53 |
| J. Lekkerimäki | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 13:06 | 2:14 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:56 | 0:00 |
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:29 | 2:23 |
| L. Ohgren | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:40 | 1:03 |
| A. Bains | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:40 | 0:00 |
| M. Sasson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:14 | 0:00 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10:50 | 0:00 |
| F. Hronek | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 0 | 26:51 | 2:13 |
| E. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 21:42 | 0:00 |
| T. Willander | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:49 | 0:00 |
| Z. Buium | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:37 | 1:02 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:49 | 0:00 |
| V. Mancini | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:18 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Lankinen | 35 | 31 | 4 | .886 | 56:39 | Loss |
| L. Meriläinen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kucherov | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:40 | 0:55 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:06 | 0:55 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 17:06 | 0:55 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:10 | 0:42 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:00 | 0:00 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:04 | 0:13 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:47 | 0:00 |
| I. Mikheyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:39 | 0:00 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:21 | 0:00 |
| C. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:07 | 0:00 |
| D. James | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:32 | 0:00 |
| C. D'Astous | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | +1 | 0 | 16:55 | 0:55 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:32 | 0:00 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:06 | 0:00 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:23 | 0:00 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:53 | 0:00 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 13:56 | 0:00 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12:36 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Hildeby | 14 | 12 | 2 | .857 | 59:51 | Win |
| A. Vasilevskiy | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
VAN
Line 2E. Pettersson12:12J. DeBrusk12:02J. Lekkerimäki9:42
Line 3B. Gallagher10:50A. Bains11:40M. Sasson10:34
Line 4L. Ohgren10:48D. O'Connor14:58L. Karlsson12:54
Pair 1F. Hronek20:16E. Pettersson19:34
Pair 2J. Oleksiak15:49T. Willander19:02
Pair 3V. Mancini10:18Z. Buium15:28
TBL
Line 1B. Point14:47G. Goncalves16:27J. Guentzel14:56
Line 2N. Kucherov16:26B. Hagel15:11A. Cirelli12:52
Line 3P. Holmberg12:44I. Mikheyev13:48Z. Girgensons11:51
Pair 1J. Moser17:22J. Carlson17:21
Pair 2E. Lilleberg15:02C. D'Astous15:01
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Prop Results
6 of 13 overs hit (46%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | SOG | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL B. Hagel | 3.5 | +122 | -155 | 5 | Over |
| TBL B. Point | 2.5 | +145 | -160 | 0 | Under |
| TBL J. Carlson | 2.5 | +140 | -155 | 4 | Over |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 2.5 | +135 | -165 | 0 | Under |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.5 | -120 | -110 | 2 | Under |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 2.5 | -155 | +132 | 7 | Over |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.5 | -105 | +105 | 1 | Under |
| VAN B. Boeser | 1.5 | -118 | +105 | 1 | Under |
| VAN F. Chytil | 1.5 | -115 | +100 | 2 | Over |
| VAN F. Hronek | 1.5 | +108 | -111 | 0 | Under |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 1.5 | +120 | -175 | 2 | Over |
| TBL I. Mikheyev | 1.5 | +125 | -135 | 2 | Over |
| TBL J. Moser | 1.5 | +115 | -165 | 0 | Under |
4 of 32 overs hit (13%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | G | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL A. Cirelli | 0.5 | +260 | -320 | 0 | Under |
| VAN B. Boeser | 0.5 | +310 | -470 | 0 | Under |
| VAN B. Gallagher | 0.5 | +1000 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| TBL B. Hagel | 0.5 | +125 | -165 | 0 | Under |
| TBL B. Point | 0.5 | +165 | -210 | 0 | Under |
| TBL C. Geekie | 0.5 | +440 | -800 | 0 | Under |
| TBL D. James | 0.5 | +410 | -700 | 0 | Under |
| VAN D. O'Connor | 0.5 | +750 | -1000 | 0 | Under |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.5 | +1300 | -2800 | 0 | Under |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 0.5 | +1800 | – | 0 | Under |
| VAN F. Chytil | 0.5 | +575 | -800 | 0 | Under |
| VAN F. Hronek | 0.5 | +800 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 0.5 | +360 | -650 | 0 | Under |
| TBL I. Mikheyev | 0.5 | +380 | -550 | 0 | Under |
| TBL J. Carlson | 0.5 | +400 | -750 | 0 | Under |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 0.5 | +290 | -390 | 0 | Under |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 0.5 | +140 | -165 | 1 | Over |
| VAN J. Lekkerimäki | 0.5 | +475 | -900 | 0 | Under |
| TBL J. Moser | 0.5 | +850 | -2000 | 0 | Under |
| VAN J. Oleksiak | 0.5 | +1800 | -4000 | 0 | Under |
| VAN L. Karlsson | 0.5 | +550 | -1000 | 1 | Over |
| VAN L. Ohgren | 0.5 | +650 | -1200 | 0 | Under |
| VAN M. Sasson | 0.5 | +1100 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 0.5 | +150 | -150 | 2 | Over |
| VAN P. Cotter | 0.5 | +800 | -2800 | 0 | Under |
| TBL P. Holmberg | 0.5 | +425 | -800 | 1 | Over |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 0.5 | +1200 | -2500 | 0 | Under |
| VAN T. Willander | 0.5 | +1800 | -3500 | 0 | Under |
| TBL V. Hedman | 0.5 | +700 | -2000 | 0 | Under |
| VAN V. Mancini | 0.5 | +2900 | -4000 | 0 | Under |
| VAN Z. Buium | 0.5 | +1400 | -2800 | 0 | Under |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 0.5 | +525 | -1000 | 0 | Under |
5 of 13 overs hit (38%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL A. Cirelli | 0.5 | +230 | -250 | 0 | Under |
| VAN B. Boeser | 0.5 | +240 | -285 | 1 | Over |
| TBL B. Hagel | 0.5 | +105 | -125 | 1 | Over |
| TBL B. Point | 0.5 | +115 | -140 | 2 | Over |
| VAN F. Hronek | 0.5 | +150 | -165 | 0 | Under |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 0.5 | +230 | -300 | 0 | Under |
| TBL J. Carlson | 0.5 | -115 | +100 | 0 | Under |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 0.5 | +350 | -525 | 0 | Under |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 0.5 | +100 | -130 | 1 | Over |
| VAN J. Lekkerimäki | 0.5 | +320 | -450 | 1 | Over |
| TBL J. Moser | 0.5 | +215 | -250 | 0 | Under |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 0.5 | -220 | +180 | 0 | Under |
| VAN Z. Buium | 0.5 | +300 | -325 | 0 | Under |
6 of 14 overs hit (43%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | P | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL B. Hagel | 1.5 | +196 | -235 | 1 | Under |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 1.5 | +190 | -240 | 2 | Over |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 1.5 | -105 | -110 | 2 | Over |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 0.5 | +100 | -115 | 0 | Under |
| VAN B. Boeser | 0.5 | +120 | -130 | 1 | Over |
| TBL B. Point | 0.5 | -210 | +180 | 2 | Over |
| VAN F. Chytil | 0.5 | +145 | -200 | 1 | Over |
| VAN F. Hronek | 0.5 | +125 | -130 | 0 | Under |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 0.5 | +120 | -150 | 0 | Under |
| TBL J. Carlson | 0.5 | -175 | +145 | 0 | Under |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 0.5 | +140 | -160 | 0 | Under |
| VAN J. Lekkerimäki | 0.5 | +200 | -240 | 1 | Over |
| TBL J. Moser | 0.5 | +160 | -175 | 0 | Under |
| VAN Z. Buium | 0.5 | +240 | -275 | 0 | Under |
5 of 14 overs hit (36%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | PPP | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL A. Cirelli | 0.5 | +500 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| VAN B. Boeser | 0.5 | +320 | -525 | 1 | Over |
| TBL B. Hagel | 0.5 | +185 | -225 | 1 | Over |
| TBL B. Point | 0.5 | +210 | -235 | 0 | Under |
| TBL C. Geekie | 0.5 | +500 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| TBL D. James | 0.5 | +500 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| VAN F. Hronek | 0.5 | +380 | -500 | 0 | Under |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 0.5 | +500 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| TBL J. Carlson | 0.5 | +180 | -190 | 0 | Under |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 0.5 | +360 | -700 | 0 | Under |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 0.5 | +160 | -210 | 1 | Over |
| VAN J. Lekkerimäki | 0.5 | +400 | -1100 | 1 | Over |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 0.5 | +105 | -145 | 1 | Over |
| VAN Z. Buium | 0.5 | +500 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VAN 2.4, TBL 4.1 | VAN 2, TBL 4 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | VAN 22.2, TBL 31.6 | VAN 14, TBL 35 |
| Win chance | TBL 74% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL B. Hagel | 3.6 | 5 | 1.45 | 1 | 43% | 0 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.5 | 7 | 1.94 | 2 | 42% | 2 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.9 | 2 | 1.29 | 2 | 41% | 1 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.4 | 0 | 1.17 | 2 | 40% | 0 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 2.3 | 0 | 0.50 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| TBL J. Carlson | 2.0 | 4 | 0.85 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 2.0 | 1 | 0.91 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| VAN F. Chytil | 1.9 | 2 | 0.39 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| VAN B. Boeser | 1.7 | 1 | 0.57 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 1.7 | 2 | 0.69 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| TBL D. James | 1.6 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| VAN F. Hronek | 1.6 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL I. Mikheyev | 1.5 | 2 | 0.54 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| VAN L. Karlsson | 1.5 | 3 | 0.41 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| TBL P. Holmberg | 1.4 | 3 | 0.45 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| VAN J. Lekkerimäki | 1.4 | 0 | 0.40 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 1.3 | 2 | 0.60 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| VAN D. O'Connor | 1.3 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VAN L. Ohgren | 1.3 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 1.2 | 4 | 0.51 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 1.2 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.2 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VAN B. Gallagher | 1.1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL C. Geekie | 1.1 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL C. D'Astous | 1.1 | 1 | 0.38 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 1.0 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN P. Cotter | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VAN M. Sasson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VAN T. Willander | 0.9 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VAN J. Oleksiak | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN Z. Buium | 0.8 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 0.8 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.7 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN V. Mancini | 0.6 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.