UTA beat VAN 2-1, with the chances close: 2.87 expected goals to 2.22. UTA outshot VAN 32 to 16. C. Keller led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). L. Crouse had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. K. Vejmelka stopped 15 of 16.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| UTA | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
- 2nd 1:43VANJ. DeBruskPP0.20 xG
- 2nd 3:51UTAL. Cooley0.04 xG
- 3rd 14:07UTAD. GuentherPP0.12 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VAN 2.22 xGUTA 2.87 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Pettersson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:11 | 2:49 |
| P. Suter | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:41 | 2:49 |
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:53 | 2:49 |
| F. Chytil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:18 | 3:21 |
| B. Boeser | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:42 | 3:22 |
| C. Garland | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:25 | 3:26 |
| D. Joshua | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:22 | 3:28 |
| K. Sherwood | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:08 | 0:25 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:15 | 0:00 |
| T. Blueger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:32 | 0:21 |
| N. Hoglander | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:57 | 2:58 |
| A. Bains | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:12 | 0:00 |
| F. Hronek | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:22 | 2:57 |
| T. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 22:36 | 3:39 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 20:38 | 0:36 |
| D. Forbort | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:21 | 0:00 |
| E. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:48 | 0:00 |
| V. Mancini | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:56 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Silovs | 32 | 30 | 2 | .938 | 58:37 | Loss |
| K. Lankinen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:24 | 5:58 |
| D. Guenther | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:05 | 5:37 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:54 | 5:57 |
| L. Cooley | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 13:44 | 1:03 |
| B. Hayton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:47 | 5:36 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14:30 | 1:24 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:50 | 0:04 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:45 | 0:03 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13:20 | 0:03 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:55 | 1:03 |
| J. Doan | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:25 | 1:17 |
| N. Bjugstad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:23 | 0:03 |
| J. Marino | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:53 | 0:00 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 25:10 | 5:38 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20:25 | 0:03 |
| O. Maatta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18:35 | 0:11 |
| S. Durzi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:19 | 1:27 |
| M. Kesselring | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:00 | 0:03 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Vejmelka | 16 | 15 | 1 | .938 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. Ingram | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VAN 2.8, UTA 2.9 | VAN 1, UTA 2 |
| Total goals | 5.7 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | VAN 24.9, UTA 27.4 | VAN 16, UTA 32 |
| Win chance | UTA 52% | UTA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA C. Keller | 2.9 | 2 | 1.05 | 2 | 33% | 0 |
| UTA D. Guenther | 2.8 | 3 | 0.85 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| VAN F. Chytil | 2.5 | 3 | 0.55 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 2.4 | 2 | 0.81 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| VAN B. Boeser | 2.1 | 1 | 0.71 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.0 | 3 | 0.79 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| VAN C. Garland | 2.0 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 2.0 | 4 | 0.57 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 2.0 | 3 | 0.52 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 1.8 | 0 | 0.74 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.7 | 1 | 0.61 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VAN K. Sherwood | 1.7 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| UTA S. Durzi | 1.6 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VAN F. Hronek | 1.6 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VAN D. O'Connor | 1.6 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.6 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| UTA N. Bjugstad | 1.6 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| UTA J. Doan | 1.5 | 3 | 0.45 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| VAN P. Suter | 1.5 | 1 | 0.40 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.5 | 4 | 0.34 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| UTA M. Kesselring | 1.4 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 1.3 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VAN T. Myers | 1.2 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN V. Mancini | 1.2 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.2 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VAN N. Hoglander | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VAN M. Pettersson | 1.1 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 1.0 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VAN T. Blueger | 1.0 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VAN D. Joshua | 1.0 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| UTA J. Marino | 0.9 | 0 | 0.30 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA O. Maatta | 0.9 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN D. Forbort | 0.7 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN A. Bains | 0.6 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.