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Game Recap
VAN1
WPG6
WPG beat VAN 6-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.41 expected goals to 1.49. WPG outshot VAN 33 to 24. K. Connor scored three for WPG. N. Niederreiter had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. C. Hellebuyck stopped 23 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| WPG | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
- 1st 6:59WPGK. Connor0.21 xG
- 1st 13:01WPGK. Connor0.23 xG
- 1st 13:37WPGK. Connor0.23 xG
- 2nd 0:39WPGN. Pionk0.01 xG
- 2nd 15:06WPGN. Niederreiter0.29 xG
- 3rd 1:31WPGM. ScheifelePP0.23 xG
- 3rd 9:16VANN. Hoglander0.07 xG
Team Stats
VANWPG
24Shots on goal33
1.49Expected goals4.41
60Shot attempts60
205v5 shots on goal24
0/2Power play1/3
29Hits26
14Blocked shots20
6Penalty minutes4
10Giveaways17
2Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VAN 1.49 xGWPG 4.41 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Hoglander | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:58 | 0:00 |
| E. Pettersson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:57 | 1:55 |
| K. Sherwood | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:00 | 2:04 |
| B. Boeser | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:40 | 1:56 |
| P. Suter | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:23 | 2:05 |
| C. Garland | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 15:58 | 2:20 |
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:16 | 1:48 |
| J. Miller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:37 | 2:07 |
| T. Blueger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:37 | 0:00 |
| J. Lekkerimäki | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:31 | 1:45 |
| P. Di Giuseppe | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:18 | 0:00 |
| D. Heinen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:13 | 0:00 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:51 | 3:11 |
| F. Hronek | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:50 | 0:49 |
| T. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 4 | 20:01 | 0:00 |
| D. Forbort | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:38 | 0:00 |
| C. Soucy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:01 | 0:00 |
| N. Juulsen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:02 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Lankinen | 33 | 27 | 6 | .818 | 60:00 | Loss |
| T. Demko | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Connor | LW | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +3 | 0 | 16:40 | 2:03 |
| G. Vilardi | C | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 14:57 | 1:59 |
| N. Niederreiter | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:36 | 1:59 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:35 | 2:01 |
| M. Scheifele | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 15:37 | 1:59 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:44 | 2:05 |
| R. Kupari | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 14:25 | 0:00 |
| A. Lowry | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:12 | 0:09 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:42 | 1:48 |
| M. Barron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:37 | 0:18 |
| D. Gustafsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:54 | 0:00 |
| D. Toninato | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:32 | 0:06 |
| N. Pionk | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 18:35 | 2:06 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 23:31 | 2:03 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:59 | 0:18 |
| L. Stanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:39 | 0:00 |
| V. Heinola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 17:37 | 1:51 |
| D. Samberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 17:08 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Hellebuyck | 24 | 23 | 1 | .958 | 60:00 | Win |
| E. Comrie | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VAN 2.6, WPG 3.0 | VAN 1, WPG 6 |
| Total goals | 5.6 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | VAN 25.0, WPG 27.1 | VAN 24, WPG 33 |
| Win chance | WPG 58% | WPG won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG K. Connor | 3.0 | 3 | 1.02 | 4 | 35% | 3 |
| WPG N. Ehlers | 2.5 | 2 | 0.82 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| VAN Q. Hughes | 2.4 | 2 | 0.92 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VAN C. Garland | 2.3 | 0 | 0.58 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 2.0 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 2.0 | 3 | 0.96 | 2 | 33% | 1 |
| VAN B. Boeser | 2.0 | 2 | 0.64 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| VAN J. Miller | 1.9 | 2 | 0.78 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| VAN K. Sherwood | 1.9 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 1.9 | 0 | 0.75 | 3 | 30% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 1.9 | 1 | 0.71 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 1.8 | 2 | 0.73 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 1.8 | 7 | 0.44 | 2 | 20% | 1 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 1.7 | 3 | 0.52 | 2 | 18% | 0 |
| VAN P. Suter | 1.6 | 3 | 0.37 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WPG N. Pionk | 1.6 | 4 | 0.50 | 2 | 9% | 1 |
| VAN F. Hronek | 1.5 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.5 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| WPG A. Lowry | 1.4 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| VAN J. Lekkerimäki | 1.3 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VAN D. Heinen | 1.2 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| VAN T. Myers | 1.2 | 3 | 0.28 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG D. Samberg | 1.1 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VAN T. Blueger | 1.1 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VAN N. Hoglander | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| VAN P. Giuseppe | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WPG M. Barron | 1.0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG L. Stanley | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN C. Soucy | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG V. Heinola | 0.9 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WPG D. Toninato | 0.8 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WPG R. Kupari | 0.7 | 0 | 0.14 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| VAN N. Juulsen | 0.7 | 2 | 0.09 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| WPG D. Gustafsson | 0.7 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN D. Forbort | 0.7 | 3 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.