Game Recap: VGK 4, CGY 2, October 14, 2025

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Game Recap

VGK4

FinalTue, Oct 14, 2025Every game that night

CGY2

VGK beat CGY 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.43 expected goals to 2.46. J. Eichel led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Eichel had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.3. A. Schmid stopped 19 of 19.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VGK	0	1	3	4
CGY	2	0	0	2

1st 7:32CGYM. Backlund0.04 xG
1st 12:10CGYB. Coleman0.08 xG
2nd 10:00VGKJ. Eichel0.11 xG
3rd 4:11VGKK. Korczak0.12 xG
3rd 6:38VGKJ. Eichel0.31 xG
3rd 19:53VGKT. HertlEN0.92 xG

Team Stats

VGKCGY

30Shots on goal29

3.43Expected goals2.46

67Shot attempts54

255v5 shots on goal26

0/2Power play0/1

26Hits23

11Blocked shots18

4Penalty minutes6

13Giveaways11

6Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 3.43 xGCGY 2.46 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK29 on goal, 4 scored

CGY28 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Marner	RW	0	2	2	4	1	0	+2	0	21:54	2:33
T. Hertl	C	1	1	2	2	1	1	+2	0	18:31	2:01
J. Eichel	C	2	0	2	7	0	0	0	0	17:44	2:37
M. Stone	RW	0	1	1	4	1	0	0	0	17:32	2:04
W. Karlsson	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	16:24	0:06
I. Barbashev	LW	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	14:49	0:37
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	18:12	2:28
B. Saad	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	13:17	0:00
R. Smith	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:14	0:39
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	10:15	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	0	5	2	0	0	10:02	0:00
C. Reinhardt	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	9:22	0:00
K. Korczak	D	1	0	1	2	4	2	+1	2	17:26	0:06
J. Lauzon	D	0	1	1	0	7	0	+1	0	16:16	0:00
S. Theodore	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	23:53	0:17
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	23:04	0:00
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+2	0	17:39	0:00
B. Hutton	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	16:49	0:07

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Hill	10	8	2	.800	20:00
A. Schmid	19	19	0	1.000	39:37	Win

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Coleman	LW	1	0	1	3	2	2	+1	0	16:49	0:00
M. Backlund	C	1	0	1	3	0	1	+1	0	15:25	0:00
N. Kadri	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	-3	2	20:35	0:43
M. Coronato	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-3	0	19:12	0:43
J. Farabee	LW	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	17:05	0:43
M. Gridin	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	16:01	0:00
M. Frost	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	15:41	0:43
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	13:42	0:00
S. Honzek	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	12:32	0:00
A. Klapka	RW	0	0	0	2	5	0	0	0	10:21	0:00
C. Zary	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	10:06	0:00
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	1	6	1	0	0	9:08	0:00
M. Weegar	D	0	1	1	0	2	2	-1	2	23:37	0:43
R. Andersson	D	0	0	0	4	1	0	-1	0	21:26	0:00
K. Bahl	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	2	20:43	0:00
D. Miromanov	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	17:49	0:00
Z. Parekh	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	17:49	0:00
J. Hanley	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	17:43	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Wolf	29	26	3	.897	58:16	Loss
D. Cooley	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VGK

Line 1T. Hertl15:42M. Marner16:16P. Dorofeyev15:08

Line 2B. Saad13:17W. Karlsson13:25R. Smith11:39

Line 3M. Stone13:28I. Barbashev12:53J. Eichel11:53

Line 4K. Kolesar10:02C. Sissons10:15C. Reinhardt9:22

Pair 1B. McNabb19:18S. Theodore20:13

Pair 2K. Korczak17:20J. Lauzon16:00

Pair 3B. Hutton15:03Z. Whitecloud14:36

CGY

Line 1N. Kadri17:11M. Coronato16:44M. Gridin15:27

Line 2M. Frost13:06Y. Sharangovich12:40J. Farabee14:06

Line 3M. Backlund12:08B. Coleman12:24S. Honzek11:13

Line 4R. Lomberg9:08A. Klapka9:47C. Zary9:12

Pair 1R. Andersson17:45K. Bahl18:05

Pair 2M. Weegar20:21D. Miromanov16:16

Pair 3J. Hanley14:35Z. Parekh15:42

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamRasmus Andersson VGK First game back in Calgary, his team until Jan 20264 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VGK 3.1, CGY 2.7	VGK 4, CGY 2
Total goals	5.9	6
Shots on goal	VGK 28.5, CGY 27.4	VGK 30, CGY 29
Win chance	VGK 56%	VGK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK P. Dorofeyev	3.3	1	0.65	0	33%	0
CGY N. Kadri	3.3	4	0.87	0	31%	0
VGK J. Eichel	3.3	7	1.09	2	32%	2
VGK T. Hertl	2.4	2	0.72	2	27%	1
CGY M. Coronato	2.3	1	0.59	0	23%	0
CGY B. Coleman	2.2	3	0.49	1	21%	1
VGK W. Karlsson	2.1	1	0.56	1	21%	0
CGY M. Weegar	2.1	0	0.52	1	11%	0
CGY M. Backlund	2.0	3	0.42	1	16%	1
VGK S. Theodore	2.0	0	0.60	0	7%	0
VGK M. Marner	2.0	4	1.14	2	29%	0
VGK M. Stone	2.0	4	0.85	1	25%	0
CGY J. Farabee	1.9	1	0.46	0	18%	0
CGY R. Andersson	1.8	4	0.39	0	10%	0
CGY M. Frost	1.7	2	0.49	0	17%	0
CGY C. Zary	1.7	2	0.42	0	17%	0
VGK R. Smith	1.6	1	0.45	0	17%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.5	4	0.46	0	21%	0
CGY A. Klapka	1.5	2	0.40	0	17%	0
VGK B. Saad	1.5	3	0.38	0	18%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.5	0	0.57	1	22%	0
CGY S. Honzek	1.5	0	0.20	0	11%	0
VGK B. Hutton	1.3	3	0.20	0	4%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.1	0	0.26	0	4%	0
CGY D. Miromanov	1.0	0	0.17	0	5%	0
VGK C. Sissons	1.0	0	0.25	0	9%	0
VGK K. Korczak	1.0	2	0.21	1	2%	1
CGY K. Bahl	1.0	0	0.21	0	3%	0
VGK J. Lauzon	0.9	0	0.11	1	3%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	0.9	1	0.16	0	8%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	0.9	2	0.18	0	5%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	0.9	0	0.25	0	9%	0
VGK C. Reinhardt	0.8	0	0.15	0	8%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.7	0	0.16	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.