COL beat VGK 3-2 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 3.75 expected goals to 2.01. COL outshot VGK 36 to 21. C. Coyle led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). A. Lehkonen had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. S. Wedgewood stopped 19 of 21.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| COL | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 11:10VGKW. KarlssonSH0.13 xG
- 2nd 0:40VGKB. McNabb0.03 xG
- 2nd 9:46COLV. NichushkinPP0.46 xG
- 2nd 17:08COLJ. Vesey0.50 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VGK 2.01 xGCOL 3.75 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Karlsson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 22:01 | 4:22 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:04 | 1:20 |
| M. Stone | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:55 | 5:02 |
| N. Roy | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:08 | 1:05 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:30 | 4:13 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:13 | 4:58 |
| V. Olofsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 16:00 | 1:04 |
| B. Howden | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:56 | 0:07 |
| B. Saad | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:13 | 0:55 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:04 | 0:00 |
| C. Schwindt | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:16 | 0:00 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 10:15 | 0:00 |
| B. McNabb | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 21:02 | 0:00 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 29:03 | 5:20 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:46 | 1:18 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20:13 | 0:07 |
| K. Korczak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 13:48 | 0:05 |
| B. Hutton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:33 | 0:00 |
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:39 | 3:36 |
| N. MacKinnon | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 25:56 | 5:46 |
| V. Nichushkin | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 25:53 | 4:27 |
| M. Wood | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:50 | 0:00 |
| J. Vesey | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:10 | 0:00 |
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:42 | 2:06 |
| B. Nelson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 18:40 | 4:45 |
| L. O'Connor | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:56 | 0:00 |
| J. Kiviranta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 14:46 | 2:26 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:51 | 1:36 |
| P. Kelly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:15 | 0:10 |
| C. Wagner | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7:25 | 0:00 |
| C. Makar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 29:59 | 4:46 |
| D. Toews | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 28:28 | 1:37 |
| E. Johnson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:41 | 0:00 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:18 | 0:00 |
| S. Malinski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:34 | 0:35 |
| K. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10:10 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Wedgewood | 21 | 19 | 2 | .905 | 64:47 | Win |
| M. Blackwood | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VGK 3.0, COL 3.2 | VGK 2, COL 3 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | VGK 26.8, COL 28.7 | VGK 21, COL 36 |
| Win chance | COL 53% | COL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 3.9 | 6 | 1.36 | 1 | 37% | 0 |
| COL V. Nichushkin | 2.8 | 4 | 0.84 | 1 | 35% | 1 |
| COL C. Makar | 2.8 | 1 | 1.00 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.7 | 3 | 0.57 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| COL B. Nelson | 2.1 | 5 | 0.71 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| VGK W. Karlsson | 2.0 | 2 | 0.54 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 1.9 | 6 | 0.64 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| VGK M. Stone | 1.9 | 0 | 0.79 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| VGK B. Saad | 1.7 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| COL D. Toews | 1.6 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 1.6 | 2 | 0.60 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VGK V. Olofsson | 1.6 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| VGK R. Smith | 1.6 | 4 | 0.45 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| COL M. Wood | 1.5 | 2 | 0.24 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.5 | 3 | 0.41 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| COL S. Malinski | 1.4 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.4 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| VGK N. Roy | 1.3 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.3 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| COL J. Drury | 1.2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK T. Pearson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| COL C. Coyle | 1.2 | 1 | 0.39 | 2 | 16% | 0 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.1 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| COL L. O'Connor | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| COL E. Johnson | 1.0 | 3 | 0.13 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| COL K. Middleton | 1.0 | 0 | 0.08 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| VGK B. Hutton | 1.0 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| COL J. Vesey | 0.9 | 2 | 0.21 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 0.9 | 1 | 0.22 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| VGK K. Korczak | 0.9 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| COL J. Kiviranta | 0.9 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 0.9 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| COL R. Lindgren | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| COL C. Wagner | 0.8 | 0 | 0.08 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK C. Schwindt | 0.6 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.