Game Recap: VGK 3, EDM 4, December 21, 2025

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Game Recap

VGK3

FinalSun, Dec 21, 2025Every game that night

EDM4

EDM beat VGK 4-3 despite fewer good chances: 3.09 expected goals to 4.53. VGK outshot EDM 31 to 21. R. Nugent-Hopkins led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). P. Dorofeyev had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. C. Ingram stopped 28 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VGK	0	1	2	3
EDM	2	2	0	4

1st 9:11EDMC. McDavid0.13 xG
1st 14:37EDMR. Nugent-HopkinsPP0.08 xG
2nd 2:22EDMR. Nugent-HopkinsPP0.21 xG
2nd 7:45EDMZ. Hyman0.17 xG
2nd 12:59VGKT. HertlPP0.16 xG
3rd 3:52VGKP. DorofeyevPP0.56 xG
3rd 5:49VGKM. Marner0.71 xG

Team Stats

VGKEDM

31Shots on goal21

4.53Expected goals3.09

63Shot attempts50

225v5 shots on goal14

2/5Power play2/3

32Hits24

13Blocked shots16

6Penalty minutes10

16Giveaways22

4Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 4.53 xGEDM 3.09 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK31 on goal, 3 scored

EDM21 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Hertl	C	1	2	3	5	3	1	+1	0	19:33	5:42
M. Marner	RW	1	1	2	3	0	0	+1	0	24:00	5:40
P. Dorofeyev	RW	1	0	1	6	0	1	0	0	19:27	5:39
M. Stone	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	23:39	5:40
I. Barbashev	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	15:33	1:29
B. Howden	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	2	15:10	1:25
R. Smith	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	14:59	1:28
B. Saad	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:12	0:05
B. Bowman	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	12:53	1:34
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	0	11:44	0:07
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	0	7	1	-1	0	9:48	0:00
C. Reinhardt	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	7:50	0:00
N. Hanifin	D	0	3	3	4	0	4	0	0	26:28	6:03
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	19:50	0:00
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	-1	0	17:31	0:07
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	0	16:37	0:00
B. Hutton	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	16:35	1:11
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	2	13:23	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hart	21	17	4	.810	57:43	Loss
A. Schmid	0	0	0	–	0:00

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	2	1	3	2	1	0	+1	0	19:49	3:54
C. McDavid	C	1	2	3	5	0	1	+1	0	19:46	4:00
L. Draisaitl	C	0	2	2	3	0	0	0	2	22:17	4:02
Z. Hyman	LW	1	1	2	4	0	1	+2	0	16:21	4:05
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	17:22	0:00
J. Roslovic	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	15:29	0:05
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	13:46	0:00
M. Savoie	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:29	0:00
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	12:02	0:03
C. Lazar	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	10:01	0:00
A. Mangiapane	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	4	9:17	0:00
M. Jones	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	7:56	0:00
D. Nurse	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	0	0	22:38	0:05
A. Regula	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	2	17:00	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+1	0	24:58	4:00
M. Ekholm	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	+1	0	21:22	0:11
S. Stastney	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	15:55	0:00
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	14:18	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Ingram	31	28	3	.903	60:00	Win
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VGK

Line 1M. Stone13:29M. Marner15:15I. Barbashev12:00

Line 2R. Smith12:44B. Howden13:01B. Bowman11:19

Line 3T. Hertl11:47P. Dorofeyev11:44B. Saad12:16

Line 4C. Sissons8:50K. Kolesar9:35C. Reinhardt7:37

Pair 1B. Hutton15:24N. Hanifin17:52

Pair 2B. McNabb13:19K. Korczak18:05

Pair 3Z. Whitecloud15:07J. Lauzon12:36

EDM

Line 1J. Roslovic15:24V. Podkolzin14:07L. Draisaitl16:31

Line 2Z. Hyman11:50C. McDavid14:14R. Nugent-Hopkins12:19

Line 3A. Henrique9:44M. Savoie9:55A. Mangiapane9:04

Line 4M. Janmark10:10C. Lazar7:52M. Jones7:56

Pair 1D. Nurse18:52A. Regula15:12

Pair 2M. Ekholm17:37E. Bouchard17:08

Pair 3T. Emberson12:04S. Stastney12:01

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownCarter Hart VGK Plays near home (born in Sherwood Park)17 saves on 21

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VGK 3.0, EDM 2.9	VGK 3, EDM 4
Total goals	5.9	7
Shots on goal	VGK 27.7, EDM 27.0	VGK 31, EDM 21
Win chance	VGK 51%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.1	5	1.48	3	37%	1
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.9	6	0.63	1	31%	1
EDM Z. Hyman	2.9	4	0.81	2	37%	1
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.7	3	1.28	2	41%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.6	1	0.85	0	16%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.6	5	0.72	3	28%	1
VGK M. Stone	2.1	1	0.93	0	26%	0
EDM J. Roslovic	2.0	2	0.60	0	22%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	2.0	2	0.82	3	24%	2
EDM D. Nurse	1.9	1	0.33	1	9%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	1.9	4	0.41	3	9%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	1.8	0	0.41	0	9%	0
VGK M. Marner	1.8	3	1.04	2	25%	1
VGK B. Saad	1.6	1	0.34	0	17%	0
VGK B. Bowman	1.6	0	0.47	0	17%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.5	1	0.58	0	21%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.5	0	0.39	0	16%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.4	1	0.41	0	19%	0
EDM M. Savoie	1.4	0	0.30	0	15%	0
VGK R. Smith	1.4	1	0.38	0	15%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.3	0	0.32	0	16%	0
VGK B. Hutton	1.3	0	0.23	0	6%	0
VGK C. Sissons	1.0	0	0.24	0	9%	0
EDM A. Mangiapane	0.9	1	0.28	0	14%	0
EDM M. Jones	0.9	1	0.18	0	7%	0
VGK K. Korczak	0.9	1	0.23	0	4%	0
EDM S. Stastney	0.9	0	0.19	0	3%	0
VGK B. McNabb	0.9	3	0.21	0	4%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	0.9	0	0.22	0	8%	0
EDM A. Regula	0.8	1	0.11	1	3%	0
VGK C. Reinhardt	0.8	1	0.18	0	8%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	0.8	2	0.19	0	5%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.7	0	0.23	0	9%	0
VGK J. Lauzon	0.7	1	0.11	0	3%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.7	0	0.18	0	3%	0
EDM C. Lazar	0.5	0	0.14	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.