Game Recap: VGK 0, FLA 3, October 25, 2025

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Game Recap

VGK0

FinalSat, Oct 25, 2025Every game that night

FLA3

FLA beat VGK 3-0, and the chances backed it up: 2.94 expected goals to 1.48. FLA outshot VGK 26 to 17. A. Greer led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). E. Luostarinen had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. S. Bobrovsky stopped 17 of 17.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VGK	0	0	0	0
FLA	1	0	2	3

1st 17:19FLAS. Reinhart0.23 xG
3rd 3:29FLAC. Schwindt0.03 xG
3rd 10:04FLAA. Greer0.12 xG

Team Stats

VGKFLA

17Shots on goal26

1.48Expected goals2.94

49Shot attempts70

175v5 shots on goal23

0/2Power play0/3

25Hits24

21Blocked shots16

8Penalty minutes6

19Giveaways9

5Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 1.48 xGFLA 2.94 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK17 on goal, 0 scored

FLA26 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Eichel	C	1	0	0	0	0	20:16	3:05
I. Barbashev	LW	3	1	1	0	0	16:30	1:10
M. Marner	RW	0	0	0	0	0	16:06	2:50
T. Hertl	C	0	4	0	0	0	15:38	2:50
B. Saad	LW	0	1	1	0	0	15:02	0:00
P. Dorofeyev	RW	1	0	0	0	2	14:22	2:46
W. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	-1	0	14:19	1:10
R. Smith	RW	1	1	0	-1	0	13:44	1:07
K. Kolesar	RW	1	3	1	-2	0	13:11	0:00
B. Howden	C	0	0	0	-2	2	13:09	0:00
C. Sissons	C	0	2	1	-2	0	13:03	0:00
A. Holtz	RW	2	0	0	-1	0	11:21	0:55
S. Theodore	D	2	0	1	0	0	23:12	2:51
Z. Whitecloud	D	1	6	1	-2	2	21:52	0:07
B. McNabb	D	2	1	4	0	0	20:20	0:00
J. Lauzon	D	0	4	3	-1	2	18:31	0:00
B. Hutton	D	3	0	2	-2	0	17:11	1:09
K. Korczak	D	0	2	6	-1	0	16:13	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Schmid	26	23	3	.885	60:00	Loss
C. Lindbom	0	0	0	–	0:00

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Greer	LW	1	1	2	2	3	0	+2	2	10:52	0:06
S. Reinhart	C	1	0	1	4	0	2	+1	0	21:32	4:24
B. Marchand	LW	0	1	1	2	3	1	+1	2	18:40	4:27
E. Rodrigues	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	17:45	1:31
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	1	1	5	2	1	+1	0	16:32	1:27
J. Gadjovich	LW	0	1	1	2	4	0	+1	2	9:45	0:06
C. Schwindt	RW	1	0	1	1	0	2	+1	0	9:24	0:06
A. Lundell	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	20:57	4:25
E. Luostarinen	C	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	0	16:54	0:42
S. Bennett	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:42	1:28
M. Samoskevich	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	13:17	3:09
J. Boqvist	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:58	0:00
A. Ekblad	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+2	0	23:12	2:02
G. Forsling	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+2	0	22:48	0:46
S. Jones	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	22:36	4:41
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	19:24	0:00
J. Petry	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	14:26	0:34
U. Balinskis	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	13:28	0:06

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Bobrovsky	17	17	0	1.000	59:48	Win
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VGK

Line 1I. Barbashev15:20J. Eichel16:23B. Saad14:21

Line 2B. Howden12:04K. Kolesar12:32C. Sissons10:36

Line 3T. Hertl12:42P. Dorofeyev11:36M. Marner12:35

Line 4W. Karlsson10:15A. Holtz10:14R. Smith9:37

Pair 1B. McNabb17:41S. Theodore18:19

Pair 2B. Hutton15:56Z. Whitecloud18:56

Pair 3K. Korczak14:10J. Lauzon15:43

FLA

Line 1C. Verhaeghe15:05E. Rodrigues15:34S. Reinhart14:11

Line 2E. Luostarinen14:50A. Lundell14:09B. Marchand13:40

Line 3S. Bennett12:14J. Boqvist10:31M. Samoskevich10:08

Line 4A. Greer10:46J. Gadjovich9:39C. Schwindt8:53

Pair 1A. Ekblad18:54G. Forsling19:44

Pair 2N. Mikkola17:42S. Jones16:14

Pair 3J. Petry13:39U. Balinskis13:07

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamAkira Schmid FLA First game against VGK since he left (his team until Mar 2026)23 saves on 26

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VGK 2.9, FLA 2.9	VGK 0, FLA 3
Total goals	5.7	3
Shots on goal	VGK 26.6, FLA 27.7	VGK 17, FLA 26
Win chance	FLA 51%	FLA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	2.8	1	0.95	0	28%	0
FLA S. Bennett	2.8	0	0.68	0	28%	0
FLA S. Reinhart	2.7	4	0.95	1	38%	1
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.7	1	0.58	0	30%	0
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.5	5	0.71	1	28%	0
FLA B. Marchand	2.5	2	0.82	1	29%	0
FLA A. Lundell	2.2	1	0.64	0	20%	0
FLA M. Samoskevich	2.1	1	0.46	0	18%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.1	0	0.64	0	25%	0
VGK S. Theodore	2.0	2	0.58	0	8%	0
FLA E. Rodrigues	1.8	2	0.44	1	16%	0
VGK W. Karlsson	1.7	0	0.47	0	18%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	1.7	1	0.47	0	10%	0
VGK M. Marner	1.7	0	1.02	0	26%	0
FLA G. Forsling	1.6	0	0.33	0	9%	0
FLA S. Jones	1.6	0	0.44	0	10%	0
VGK B. Hutton	1.4	3	0.20	0	4%	0
VGK B. Saad	1.4	0	0.34	0	17%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.3	4	0.41	0	14%	0
VGK R. Smith	1.3	1	0.37	0	14%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.2	3	0.50	0	19%	0
VGK A. Holtz	1.2	2	0.22	0	11%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.1	2	0.25	0	4%	0
VGK K. Korczak	1.1	0	0.23	0	3%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.1	0	0.33	0	16%	0
VGK J. Lauzon	1.0	0	0.12	0	3%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.0	0	0.17	0	4%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	0.9	0	0.26	0	12%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	0.9	1	0.18	0	5%	0
FLA U. Balinskis	0.9	0	0.15	0	4%	0
VGK C. Sissons	0.8	0	0.21	0	8%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	0.7	1	0.22	0	9%	0
FLA A. Greer	0.7	2	0.17	2	8%	1
FLA J. Petry	0.7	1	0.22	0	4%	0
FLA J. Gadjovich	0.7	2	0.12	1	6%	0
FLA C. Schwindt	0.6	1	0.14	1	5%	1

Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.