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Game Recap
VGK1
SEA2
SEA beat VGK 2-1 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.20 expected goals to 2.84. M. Beniers led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Daccord stopped 26 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| SEA | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
- 2nd 7:58SEAM. BeniersPP0.17 xG
- 3rd 4:11VGKP. DorofeyevPP0.08 xG
- OT 4:56SEAJ. McCann0.23 xG
Team Stats
VGKSEA
27Shots on goal22
2.84Expected goals3.20
66Shot attempts58
185v5 shots on goal11
1/3Power play1/3
22Hits30
14Blocked shots20
11Penalty minutes11
20Giveaways17
3Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VGK 2.84 xGSEA 3.20 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Eichel | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:28 | 4:16 |
| M. Stone | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:57 | 4:36 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:25 | 4:14 |
| M. Marner | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:47 | 4:30 |
| T. Hertl | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:06 | 4:19 |
| W. Karlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17:12 | 0:29 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:16 | 0:26 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:31 | 0:31 |
| B. Howden | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:51 | 0:00 |
| B. Saad | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:16 | 0:00 |
| C. Sissons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:42 | 0:00 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:20 | 0:00 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:33 | 0:15 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 20:35 | 0:00 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:29 | 0:00 |
| B. Hutton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 18:13 | 0:09 |
| K. Korczak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:21 | 0:00 |
| J. Lauzon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 16:05 | 0:00 |
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Beniers | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:54 | 3:17 |
| J. Eberle | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:28 | 3:17 |
| J. McCann | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:25 | 3:16 |
| C. Stephenson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:37 | 3:19 |
| J. Schwartz | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:32 | 1:24 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:02 | 0:00 |
| R. Winterton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:49 | 0:00 |
| T. Kartye | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:57 | 0:00 |
| M. Marchment | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:10 | 1:25 |
| S. Wright | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:33 | 1:22 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:21 | 1:20 |
| J. Nyman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:37 | 0:00 |
| V. Dunn | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 24:02 | 3:50 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 23:36 | 0:03 |
| B. Montour | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 23:11 | 0:51 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:02 | 0:01 |
| J. Mahura | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:48 | 0:00 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 14:59 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Daccord | 27 | 26 | 1 | .963 | 64:56 | Win |
| M. Murray | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
VGK
Line 1I. Barbashev15:50J. Eichel13:15M. Marner14:03
Line 2T. Hertl13:33P. Dorofeyev12:49B. Saad10:32
Line 3R. Smith11:49W. Karlsson12:54M. Stone13:22
Line 4K. Kolesar11:00B. Howden11:07C. Sissons11:18
Pair 1B. McNabb17:43S. Theodore17:52
Pair 2B. Hutton18:04Z. Whitecloud16:57
Pair 3K. Korczak15:30J. Lauzon15:12
SEA
Line 1C. Stephenson15:34R. Winterton14:25J. Schwartz14:01
Line 2J. Eberle14:07M. Beniers12:33J. McCann11:12
Line 3F. Gaudreau13:10T. Kartye12:35J. Nyman8:37
Line 4M. Marchment12:45S. Wright11:06E. Tolvanen11:18
Pair 1A. Larsson19:26V. Dunn17:59
Pair 2B. Montour19:37R. Lindgren17:09
Pair 3J. Mahura14:16J. Oleksiak13:00
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VGK 3.2, SEA 2.8 | VGK 1, SEA 2 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | VGK 28.5, SEA 26.3 | VGK 27, SEA 22 |
| Win chance | VGK 56% | SEA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.3 | 3 | 1.14 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 3.3 | 3 | 0.66 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| SEA J. McCann | 2.5 | 3 | 0.72 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 2.4 | 0 | 0.73 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.4 | 3 | 0.47 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 2.2 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| VGK W. Karlsson | 2.1 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 2.1 | 4 | 0.69 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK M. Marner | 2.0 | 2 | 1.16 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| SEA M. Marchment | 2.0 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| VGK M. Stone | 1.9 | 1 | 0.86 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| SEA J. Eberle | 1.9 | 4 | 0.62 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 1.8 | 2 | 0.55 | 2 | 12% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.8 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.7 | 3 | 0.53 | 2 | 21% | 1 |
| VGK R. Smith | 1.6 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VGK B. Saad | 1.6 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.5 | 2 | 0.60 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| SEA J. Nyman | 1.5 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SEA R. Winterton | 1.4 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VGK B. Hutton | 1.3 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.3 | 0 | 0.57 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.3 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SEA F. Gaudreau | 1.2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.65 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| VGK C. Sissons | 1.0 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK K. Korczak | 1.0 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| VGK J. Lauzon | 0.9 | 2 | 0.12 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SEA T. Kartye | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SEA J. Mahura | 0.9 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SEA R. Lindgren | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 0.8 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 0.7 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.