Game Recap: VGK 4, SJS 3 (OT), October 9, 2025

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Game Recap

VGK4

Final/OTThu, Oct 9, 2025Every game that night

SJS3

VGK beat SJS 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.71 expected goals to 2.70. VGK outshot SJS 31 to 23. J. Eichel led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Schmid stopped 20 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
VGK	1	1	1	1	4
SJS	1	1	1	0	3

1st 5:31SJSJ. Skinner0.11 xG
1st 8:09VGKB. Howden0.27 xG
2nd 6:59SJSA. WennbergPP0.05 xG
2nd 14:22VGKP. DorofeyevPP0.10 xG
3rd 2:59SJSP. Kurashev0.07 xG
3rd 18:26VGKJ. Eichel0.00 xG
OT 1:24VGKR. Smith0.20 xG

Team Stats

VGKSJS

31Shots on goal23

2.71Expected goals2.70

62Shot attempts53

245v5 shots on goal19

1/4Power play1/4

22Hits22

17Blocked shots14

8Penalty minutes8

17Giveaways23

1Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 2.71 xGSJS 2.70 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK31 on goal, 4 scored

SJS23 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Eichel	C	1	1	2	3	2	1	+1	0	22:34	5:26
M. Stone	RW	0	2	2	1	2	2	+1	0	19:22	5:49
P. Dorofeyev	RW	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	18:10	5:19
T. Hertl	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	4	17:53	5:48
R. Smith	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	13:21	0:30
B. Howden	C	1	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	9:53	0:19
K. Kolesar	RW	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	9:44	0:00
M. Marner	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	+2	2	22:25	5:44
B. Saad	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	14:53	0:01
W. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	2	14:35	0:39
I. Barbashev	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	14:13	0:15
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:51	0:00
S. Theodore	D	0	1	1	3	0	4	+2	0	24:52	0:42
B. Hutton	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	14:28	0:00
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	0	2	6	0	0	21:15	0:03
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	18:18	0:00
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	15:13	0:00
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	14:50	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Schmid	23	20	3	.870	60:15	Win
A. Hill	0	0	0	–	0:00

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Kurashev	C	1	0	1	3	2	1	+1	0	19:38	3:06
A. Wennberg	C	1	0	1	2	0	2	-1	0	17:58	3:18
W. Eklund	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	-1	0	17:27	3:34
T. Dellandrea	C	0	1	1	2	4	1	+2	0	16:06	0:18
J. Skinner	LW	1	0	1	3	2	0	+1	0	10:40	2:46
M. Celebrini	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	22:15	3:50
W. Smith	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	2	20:34	3:41
C. Graf	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+2	0	17:05	0:03
T. Toffoli	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	14:45	3:19
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	0	10:27	0:00
A. Gaudette	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	2	9:37	3:02
R. Reaves	RW	0	0	0	0	5	0	-1	0	6:31	0:00
S. Mukhamadullin	D	0	2	2	0	0	1	+1	4	12:45	0:00
J. Klingberg	D	0	1	1	3	0	0	-1	0	22:24	3:54
D. Orlov	D	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	21:41	2:59
N. Leddy	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	21:01	0:12
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	18:39	0:16
T. Liljegren	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	18:32	0:07

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Nedeljkovic	31	27	4	.871	61:24	OT loss
Y. Askarov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VGK

Line 1I. Barbashev13:34M. Marner12:19J. Eichel12:46

Line 2R. Smith11:28W. Karlsson12:54M. Stone9:54

Line 3T. Hertl11:17P. Dorofeyev12:03B. Saad13:02

Line 4K. Kolesar9:44B. Howden9:07C. Sissons9:09

Pair 1B. McNabb17:07S. Theodore18:00

Pair 2B. Hutton13:57K. Korczak14:40

Pair 3Z. Whitecloud12:24J. Lauzon15:00

SJS

Line 1W. Smith15:59M. Celebrini16:56P. Kurashev16:29

Line 2A. Wennberg11:14W. Eklund12:44T. Toffoli10:38

Line 3T. Dellandrea11:22C. Graf12:43J. Skinner7:54

Line 4R. Reaves6:31B. Goodrow8:00A. Gaudette6:35

Pair 1N. Leddy17:20J. Klingberg17:49

Pair 2M. Ferraro13:47T. Liljegren14:33

Pair 3D. Orlov15:27S. Mukhamadullin12:24

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamTomas Hertl VGK Faces SJS, his team until Jan 20241 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VGK 3.5, SJS 2.6	VGK 4, SJS 3
Total goals	6.2	7
Shots on goal	VGK 30.5, SJS 25.6	VGK 31, SJS 23
Win chance	VGK 64%	VGK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.6	3	1.26	2	35%	1
VGK P. Dorofeyev	3.5	4	0.73	1	35%	1
SJS M. Celebrini	3.1	1	0.81	0	25%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	3.1	2	0.76	0	32%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.6	2	0.80	1	30%	0
VGK W. Karlsson	2.4	2	0.70	0	25%	0
VGK S. Theodore	2.2	3	0.82	1	11%	0
SJS W. Smith	2.1	2	0.73	0	24%	0
VGK M. Stone	2.1	1	0.93	2	27%	0
VGK M. Marner	2.1	2	1.27	0	31%	0
SJS J. Skinner	2.0	3	0.51	1	23%	1
SJS W. Eklund	2.0	1	0.68	1	19%	0
VGK R. Smith	1.8	3	0.53	1	19%	1
VGK I. Barbashev	1.7	1	0.71	0	25%	0
VGK B. Saad	1.7	1	0.45	0	20%	0
SJS T. Liljegren	1.5	0	0.33	0	8%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.5	2	0.46	1	20%	1
SJS D. Orlov	1.5	1	0.33	1	7%	0
VGK B. Hutton	1.4	1	0.24	1	5%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.4	1	0.34	0	15%	0
SJS J. Klingberg	1.3	3	0.33	1	7%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.3	2	0.52	1	16%	1
VGK B. McNabb	1.3	0	0.34	0	6%	0
SJS S. Mukhamadullin	1.1	0	0.28	2	5%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.1	2	0.22	0	5%	0
VGK C. Sissons	1.1	1	0.29	0	11%	0
VGK K. Korczak	1.0	2	0.27	0	3%	0
SJS A. Gaudette	1.0	0	0.27	0	14%	0
VGK J. Lauzon	1.0	1	0.14	0	4%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	1.0	1	0.24	0	7%	0
SJS P. Kurashev	0.9	3	0.30	1	11%	1
SJS B. Goodrow	0.9	0	0.21	0	11%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	0.9	1	0.28	1	11%	0
SJS T. Dellandrea	0.9	2	0.19	1	7%	0
SJS N. Leddy	0.6	0	0.19	0	3%	0
SJS R. Reaves	0.5	0	0.13	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.