VGK beat VAN 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.60 expected goals to 1.90. VGK outshot VAN 31 to 17. V. Olofsson led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). P. Dorofeyev had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.8. A. Schmid stopped 16 of 17.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| VAN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 8:23VANP. Suter0.20 xG
- 2nd 18:33VGKV. Olofsson0.06 xG
- 3rd 7:59VGKP. Dorofeyev0.04 xG
- 3rd 10:45VGKJ. Eichel0.05 xG
- 3rd 18:28VGKC. SchwindtEN0.59 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VGK 3.60 xGVAN 1.90 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Olofsson | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 13:56 | 1:20 |
| J. Eichel | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:28 | 4:51 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:25 | 4:40 |
| B. Howden | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 19:11 | 4:39 |
| W. Karlsson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:26 | 1:18 |
| C. Schwindt | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 10:09 | 0:00 |
| N. Roy | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:52 | 4:42 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:13 | 1:09 |
| J. Rondbjerg | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:58 | 0:00 |
| A. Holtz | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:50 | 1:17 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:49 | 0:00 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:29 | 0:00 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:42 | 4:48 |
| B. Hutton | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:01 | 0:04 |
| A. Pietrangelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:13 | 1:12 |
| N. Hague | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:40 | 0:00 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:01 | 0:00 |
| K. Korczak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:37 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Schmid | 17 | 16 | 1 | .941 | 60:00 | Win |
| I. Samsonov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Suter | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 17:46 | 1:26 |
| C. Garland | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 14:41 | 1:27 |
| N. Hoglander | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:57 | 0:34 |
| K. Sherwood | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:34 | 1:11 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:58 | 0:00 |
| B. Boeser | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:56 | 1:26 |
| T. Blueger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:40 | 0:00 |
| D. Joshua | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:50 | 0:00 |
| A. Räty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:45 | 0:00 |
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:16 | 0:49 |
| M. Sasson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:02 | 0:00 |
| L. Karlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:26 | 0:33 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 25:06 | 1:39 |
| F. Hronek | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 23:34 | 0:34 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 21:14 | 0:00 |
| V. Mancini | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 19:24 | 0:21 |
| E. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:53 | 0:00 |
| K. Kudryavtsev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:43 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Lankinen | 20 | 19 | 1 | .950 | 40:00 | |
| N. Tolopilo | 10 | 8 | 2 | .800 | 19:15 | Loss |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VGK 3.0, VAN 2.9 | VGK 4, VAN 1 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | VGK 26.7, VAN 25.0 | VGK 31, VAN 17 |
| Win chance | VGK 51% | VGK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.8 | 7 | 0.57 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| VGK J. Eichel | 2.7 | 2 | 0.91 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| VAN Q. Hughes | 2.5 | 5 | 1.01 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VAN C. Garland | 2.2 | 3 | 0.62 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| VAN B. Boeser | 2.1 | 1 | 0.74 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 2.1 | 0 | 0.57 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| VAN P. Suter | 2.1 | 2 | 0.60 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| VGK W. Karlsson | 2.0 | 0 | 0.56 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 1.9 | 2 | 0.69 | 2 | 12% | 0 |
| VAN K. Sherwood | 1.8 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| VGK V. Olofsson | 1.7 | 3 | 0.43 | 2 | 20% | 1 |
| VGK R. Smith | 1.6 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| VGK A. Pietrangelo | 1.5 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VGK N. Roy | 1.5 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| VAN N. Hoglander | 1.5 | 0 | 0.42 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| VAN F. Hronek | 1.5 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VAN D. O'Connor | 1.5 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VAN L. Karlsson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.3 | 2 | 0.39 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| VAN A. Räty | 1.3 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| VGK T. Pearson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK A. Holtz | 1.2 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VAN T. Blueger | 1.2 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK B. Hutton | 1.2 | 0 | 0.17 | 2 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN M. Sasson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.1 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hague | 1.1 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VAN D. Joshua | 1.0 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| VAN M. Pettersson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VGK K. Korczak | 0.9 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 0.9 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK J. Rondbjerg | 0.9 | 2 | 0.12 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VAN V. Mancini | 0.8 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 0.7 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VGK C. Schwindt | 0.6 | 1 | 0.13 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.