Game Recap: WPG 3, BUF 2 (OT), December 5, 2024

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Game Recap

WPG3

Final/OTThu, Dec 5, 2024Every game that night

BUF2

WPG beat BUF 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.12 expected goals to 2.11. G. Vilardi led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Zucker had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. C. Hellebuyck stopped 28 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
WPG	1	1	0	1	3
BUF	2	0	0	0	2

1st 3:27BUFT. ThompsonPP0.04 xG
1st 4:14WPGG. Vilardi0.14 xG
1st 11:29BUFD. Cozens0.09 xG
2nd 3:06WPGK. ConnorPP0.19 xG
OT 3:59WPGA. Lowry0.24 xG

Team Stats

WPGBUF

31Shots on goal30

3.12Expected goals2.11

62Shot attempts65

215v5 shots on goal23

1/5Power play1/3

15Hits28

18Blocked shots15

23Penalty minutes25

16Giveaways16

3Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 3.12 xGBUF 2.11 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG31 on goal, 3 scored

BUF30 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Scheifele	C	0	2	2	2	3	0	+1	0	24:49	6:02
G. Vilardi	C	1	1	2	2	0	0	+2	0	21:52	6:02
K. Connor	LW	1	0	1	4	0	0	+1	0	23:42	5:56
A. Lowry	C	1	0	1	4	2	2	+1	0	17:43	0:02
C. Perfetti	C	0	0	0	3	2	1	-1	0	19:05	6:06
M. Appleton	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	16:28	0:05
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	15:54	1:59
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	3	0	2	-1	4	13:02	1:53
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	11:34	1:52
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	9:15	0:00
B. Lambert	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	9:01	1:28
R. Kupari	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	8:09	0:00
J. Morrissey	D	0	2	2	3	0	1	+2	0	29:54	5:49
H. Fleury	D	0	1	1	2	1	3	+1	0	18:41	0:06
N. Pionk	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	2	27:33	2:13
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	19:09	0:00
V. Heinola	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	10:57	0:27
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	17	10:20	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	30	28	2	.933	63:49	Win
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Tuch	RW	0	1	1	3	0	3	-1	0	21:49	3:51
T. Thompson	C	1	0	1	3	2	0	-1	2	20:09	3:51
D. Cozens	C	1	0	1	3	1	2	+1	0	17:53	3:48
J. Zucker	LW	0	1	1	5	4	1	0	2	14:25	3:30
Z. Benson	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	14:16	1:08
R. McLeod	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	18:34	0:00
J. Peterka	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	0	16:35	1:11
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	1	5	4	-1	0	15:29	1:11
J.Kulich	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	13:47	1:06
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:58	0:00
N. Aube-Kubel	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	9:09	0:00
T. Kozak	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	8:26	0:00
C. Clifton	D	0	1	1	0	9	0	+1	0	21:19	0:00
O. Power	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	29:21	3:00
B. Byram	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	-2	2	26:38	2:17
H. Jokiharju	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	20:23	0:02
J. Bryson	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	14:52	0:00
D. Gilbert	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	15	7:21	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
U. Luukkonen	31	28	3	.903	63:59	OT loss
J. Reimer	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WPG 3.1, BUF 3.0	WPG 3, BUF 2
Total goals	6.0	5
Shots on goal	WPG 28.1, BUF 31.6	WPG 31, BUF 30
Win chance	WPG 51%	WPG won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	3.5	3	0.88	1	37%	1
WPG K. Connor	3.1	4	0.96	1	36%	1
BUF J. Peterka	2.7	3	0.63	0	26%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.6	3	0.84	1	28%	0
BUF D. Cozens	2.6	3	0.59	1	23%	1
BUF J. Zucker	2.2	5	0.53	1	22%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	2.1	3	0.75	2	13%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	2.1	2	0.69	2	30%	1
WPG M. Scheifele	2.0	2	0.92	2	33%	0
BUF J.Kulich	2.0	2	0.20	0	13%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.9	1	0.46	0	22%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	1.8	3	0.56	0	20%	0
WPG N. Pionk	1.7	2	0.48	0	8%	0
BUF O. Power	1.6	1	0.44	0	7%	0
BUF Z. Benson	1.5	0	0.43	1	16%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.4	1	0.51	0	12%	0
WPG M. Appleton	1.4	0	0.36	0	13%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.3	4	0.44	1	17%	1
WPG H. Fleury	1.2	2	0.16	1	4%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.2	2	0.35	0	15%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.1	1	0.32	0	13%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.1	3	0.45	0	15%	0
BUF H. Jokiharju	1.1	3	0.20	0	4%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.0	1	0.19	0	10%	0
WPG V. Heinola	1.0	1	0.20	0	3%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.0	1	0.29	0	10%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	1.0	0	0.28	0	4%	0
BUF N. Aube-Kubel	0.9	2	0.20	0	9%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.9	0	0.18	0	7%	0
WPG L. Stanley	0.9	1	0.16	0	4%	0
BUF C. Clifton	0.9	0	0.19	1	4%	0
WPG R. Kupari	0.8	1	0.15	0	6%	0
BUF D. Gilbert	0.5	0	0.14	0	3%	0
BUF J. Bryson	0.4	0	0.13	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 26 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.