Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
WPG3
Final/OTThu, Oct 15, 2026Every game that night
CHI4

CHI beat WPG 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.59 expected goals to 3.30. N. Pionk led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). N. Niederreiter had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. S. Knight stopped 31 of 34.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
WPG11103
CHI30014
  1. 1st 8:11CHIC. BedardPP0.19 xG
  2. 1st 15:10CHIF. Nazar0.13 xG
  3. 1st 16:57WPGN. Pionk0.02 xG
  4. 1st 17:11CHIR. Donato0.07 xG
  5. 2nd 4:44WPGK. ConnorPP0.14 xG
  6. 3rd 5:39WPGA. Iafallo0.05 xG
  7. OT 1:37CHIA. Levshunov0.15 xG

Team Stats

WPGCHI
34Shots on goal28
3.30Expected goals3.59
66Shot attempts46
275v5 shots on goal18
1/3Power play1/4
34Hits19
8Blocked shots15
10Penalty minutes8
19Giveaways26
4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 3.30 xGCHI 3.59 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdOTCHI goal, 8:11CHI goal, 15:10WPG goal, 16:57CHI goal, 17:11WPG goal, 4:44WPG goal, 5:39CHI goal, 1:37

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG34 on goal, 3 scored
CHI27 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. ScheifeleC0111000021:323:20
K. ConnorLW1015100021:033:17
A. IafalloLW1013200015:050:17
I. RosenRW0111100013:230:19
M. BarronC011123+1013:110:10
B. LambertC011010+107:360:00
C. PerfettiC000211-1018:573:04
G. VilardiC000200-1016:283:06
A. LowryC0000300216:140:07
V. BjörckC000110-2012:090:19
N. NiederreiterRW000740-1212:000:23
C. KoepkeLW000330+1010:580:00
N. PionkD123421+1025:302:45
D. SambergD0000100023:590:10
M. FerraroD0001300221:040:00
D. DeMeloD0002300219:480:00
H. FleuryD000021-1014:391:02
J. St. IvanyD000142-1213:170:01
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Skinner28244.85761:37OT loss
C. Stevenson000–0:00

CHI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. BedardC1123110019:053:42
P. KaneRW0222000018:203:42
T. BertuzziLW0111100016:323:42
F. NazarC101300+1015:571:20
R. DonatoC101200+1013:511:19
O. MooreC011300+1013:191:20
R. KantserovRW000010-1018:423:42
T. TeravainenC0002000217:563:42
A. FrondellC0004110017:311:12
R. GreeneC0000000413:090:00
C. SmithRW0002200011:080:00
J. GreenwayLW0000410010:470:00
W. KaiserD0111020021:410:08
A. LevshunovD101121+1021:340:00
A. VlasicD0000140021:490:01
S. RinzelD0003220219:411:20
I. ColeD0000120015:020:00
E. Del MastroD0001310013:240:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Knight34313.91261:37Win
A. Soderblom000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WPG

Line 1M. Scheifele16:40K. Connor15:03C. Perfetti14:59
Line 2A. Iafallo12:51I. Rosen13:04A. Lowry13:52
Line 3N. Niederreiter11:37G. Vilardi12:16V. Björck9:58
Line 4M. Barron10:42C. Koepke10:08B. Lambert7:36
Pair 1D. Samberg20:05N. Pionk18:36
Pair 2D. DeMelo16:26M. Ferraro18:40
Pair 3H. Fleury12:06J. Ivany13:16

CHI

Line 1C. Bedard13:36R. Kantserov14:05P. Kane13:45
Line 2R. Donato12:32O. Moore11:59F. Nazar11:51
Line 3A. Frondell12:44T. Bertuzzi12:50T. Teravainen12:06
Line 4R. Greene12:46J. Greenway10:28C. Smith9:56
Pair 1I. Cole12:22A. Vlasic18:05
Pair 2W. Kaiser19:03S. Rinzel17:15
Pair 3A. Levshunov19:11E. Mastro13:21

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

7 of 13 overs hit (54%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
WPG K. Connor3.5+105-1105Over
CHI A. Frondell2.5+170-1654Over
CHI C. Bedard2.5-146+1203Over
WPG C. Perfetti2.5+115-1402Under
CHI P. Kane2.5+128-1352Under
CHI A. Levshunov1.5+112–1Under
CHI F. Nazar1.5-120-1103Over
WPG G. Vilardi1.5-125+1102Over
WPG I. Rosen1.5+122–1Under
WPG M. Scheifele1.5-190+1601Under
WPG N. Pionk1.5-160+1354Over
CHI S. Rinzel1.5-104–3Over
CHI T. Bertuzzi1.5-125+1081Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreWPG 3.1, CHI 2.7WPG 3, CHI 4
Total goals5.87
Shots on goalWPG 27.5, CHI 24.5WPG 34, CHI 28
Win chanceWPG 56%CHI won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
WPG K. Connor3.451.17139%1
CHI C. Bedard2.931.04231%1
CHI P. Kane2.520.95227%0
WPG C. Perfetti2.420.72025%0
CHI A. Frondell2.340.79023%0
WPG M. Scheifele2.111.16135%0
CHI R. Kantserov2.100.76028%0
WPG N. Pionk1.940.51311%1
CHI T. Bertuzzi1.910.78129%0
WPG G. Vilardi1.720.78029%0
CHI F. Nazar1.630.53119%1
WPG N. Niederreiter1.570.38019%0
CHI R. Donato1.420.45118%1
CHI S. Rinzel1.430.3107%0
WPG A. Iafallo1.430.39116%1
WPG M. Barron1.410.32114%0
WPG D. Samberg1.400.3006%0
WPG C. Koepke1.430.26012%0
WPG V. Björck1.310.35016%0
CHI A. Levshunov1.310.3414%1
WPG M. Ferraro1.210.3108%0
WPG I. Rosen1.210.25112%0
WPG A. Lowry1.200.39016%0
CHI O. Moore1.130.38112%0
CHI T. Teravainen1.120.53018%0
CHI R. Greene1.100.35014%0
CHI J. Greenway1.100.27011%0
WPG B. Lambert1.000.23110%0
WPG D. DeMelo1.020.3106%0
CHI E. Mastro1.010.2005%0
CHI A. Vlasic1.000.2804%0
CHI C. Smith1.020.26011%0
CHI W. Kaiser0.910.2416%0
WPG H. Fleury0.800.1604%0
CHI I. Cole0.800.2404%0
WPG J. Ivany0.810.2103%0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.