Game Recap: WPG 2, COL 5, December 31, 2024

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Game Recap

WPG2

FinalTue, Dec 31, 2024Every game that night

COL5

COL beat WPG 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.56 expected goals to 2.66. COL outshot WPG 38 to 22. J. Manson led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). J. Morrissey had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. M. Blackwood stopped 20 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WPG	0	2	0	2
COL	1	1	3	5

1st 11:51COLA. Lehkonen0.07 xG
2nd 10:20WPGR. Kupari0.18 xG
2nd 16:37COLD. Toews0.17 xG
2nd 18:32WPGG. Vilardi0.22 xG
3rd 7:22COLC. Mittelstadt0.19 xG
3rd 18:31COLM. RantanenEN0.64 xG
3rd 19:53COLR. ColtonEN0.56 xG

Team Stats

WPGCOL

22Shots on goal38

2.66Expected goals3.56

52Shot attempts67

205v5 shots on goal34

0/0Power play0/1

30Hits26

20Blocked shots15

2Penalty minutes0

21Giveaways20

2Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 2.66 xGCOL 3.56 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG22 on goal, 2 scored

COL38 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
G. Vilardi	C	1	0	1	3	0	1	-3	0	19:42	0:00
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	1	1	2	2	2	0	0	15:09	0:00
M. Barron	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	8:28	0:00
R. Kupari	C	1	0	1	1	2	0	+1	0	6:52	0:00
M. Scheifele	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	-3	0	21:35	0:00
K. Connor	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-4	0	20:57	0:00
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	17:00	0:00
A. Lowry	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	0	16:29	0:00
N. Ehlers	LW	0	0	0	2	4	1	-2	0	16:09	0:00
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	14:37	0:00
C. Perfetti	C	0	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	13:52	0:00
D. Gustafsson	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	8:41	0:00
N. Pionk	D	0	1	1	0	6	0	0	0	21:33	0:00
L. Stanley	D	0	1	1	0	3	2	+1	0	20:08	0:00
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	-1	0	23:43	0:00
J. Morrissey	D	0	0	0	5	0	1	-2	0	23:15	0:00
D. Coghlan	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	15:52	0:00
C. Miller	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	2	15:49	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Comrie	36	33	3	.917	58:09	Loss
C. Hellebuyck	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
J. Drouin	LW	0	2	2	0	0	0	+2	18:15	1:20
N. MacKinnon	C	0	1	1	6	0	3	+2	23:12	1:33
A. Lehkonen	LW	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	21:35	0:29
M. Rantanen	RW	1	0	1	5	0	1	+2	19:51	1:22
R. Colton	C	1	0	1	4	4	0	0	16:17	0:38
C. Mittelstadt	C	1	0	1	1	1	1	+2	14:51	0:40
L. O'Connor	RW	0	1	1	0	1	1	-1	12:11	0:00
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	1	1	1	4	0	+1	11:35	0:00
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	14:20	0:00
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	11:54	1:31
J. Innala	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	9:39	0:00
J. Parssinen	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	7:46	0:00
J. Manson	D	0	2	2	3	4	1	+3	19:18	0:00
D. Toews	D	1	0	1	4	1	1	+1	25:38	0:29
C. Makar	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	25:31	1:31
S. Girard	D	0	1	1	4	3	1	+3	23:40	0:27
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	13:57	0:00
K. Middleton	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	10:30	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	22	20	2	.909	60:00	Win
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WPG 3.0, COL 3.4	WPG 2, COL 5
Total goals	6.5	7
Shots on goal	WPG 26.8, COL 32.2	WPG 22, COL 38
Win chance	COL 57%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	3.8	6	1.33	1	37%	0
COL C. Makar	3.0	2	1.04	1	21%	0
WPG K. Connor	2.9	3	0.96	0	35%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	2.7	3	0.85	0	36%	0
COL M. Rantanen	2.7	5	1.11	1	37%	1
COL A. Lehkonen	2.3	3	0.73	1	31%	1
WPG N. Ehlers	2.2	2	0.69	0	23%	0
COL R. Colton	2.1	4	0.53	1	25%	1
WPG M. Scheifele	2.0	0	0.91	0	33%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	1.9	3	0.73	1	30%	1
COL D. Toews	1.8	4	0.56	1	10%	1
COL J. Drouin	1.8	0	0.76	2	20%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	1.8	5	0.72	0	10%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.7	2	0.43	1	21%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	1.7	0	0.52	0	18%	0
WPG D. Coghlan	1.5	2	0.17	0	3%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.5	0	0.22	0	5%	0
COL J. Manson	1.4	3	0.29	2	7%	0
COL C. Mittelstadt	1.4	1	0.60	1	18%	1
WPG N. Pionk	1.4	0	0.45	1	6%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.3	0	0.41	0	16%	0
COL S. Girard	1.3	4	0.37	1	5%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.3	0	0.24	0	11%	0
COL L. O'Connor	1.3	0	0.32	1	13%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	1.2	1	0.24	1	12%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.1	1	0.32	0	13%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.1	0	0.43	0	16%	0
WPG C. Miller	1.1	0	0.21	0	5%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.0	2	0.18	1	9%	0
COL J. Parssinen	0.9	0	0.30	0	12%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	0.8	0	0.26	0	4%	0
WPG L. Stanley	0.8	0	0.19	1	3%	0
COL K. Middleton	0.8	2	0.07	0	2%	0
WPG R. Kupari	0.7	1	0.12	1	5%	1
WPG D. Gustafsson	0.7	1	0.13	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 15 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.