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Game Recap
WPG1
DAL3
DAL beat WPG 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.01 expected goals to 1.86. T. Harley led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). R. Hintz had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. J. Oettinger stopped 26 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| DAL | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
- 1st 3:16WPGA. Lowry0.04 xG
- 1st 17:06DALW. Johnston0.17 xG
- 3rd 12:23DALM. Marchment0.12 xG
- 3rd 19:52DALR. HintzEN0.89 xG
Team Stats
WPGDAL
27Shots on goal31
1.86Expected goals4.01
55Shot attempts60
255v5 shots on goal20
0/2Power play0/5
31Hits18
16Blocked shots13
10Penalty minutes4
8Giveaways14
5Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WPG 1.86 xGDAL 4.01 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Lowry | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:41 | 0:04 |
| M. Scheifele | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 22:52 | 2:21 |
| K. Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:50 | 2:25 |
| G. Vilardi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:27 | 2:11 |
| M. Appleton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:51 | 0:06 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:37 | 2:05 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:25 | 0:47 |
| N. Niederreiter | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:17 | 0:54 |
| V. Namestnikov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:51 | 0:47 |
| M. Barron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:47 | 0:00 |
| R. Kupari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:44 | 0:00 |
| D. Gustafsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:30 | 0:00 |
| N. Pionk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 27:32 | 1:10 |
| H. Fleury | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 22:24 | 0:00 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 2 | 25:21 | 2:05 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:01 | 0:14 |
| C. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:32 | 0:49 |
| L. Stanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 10:56 | 0:12 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Hellebuyck | 30 | 28 | 2 | .933 | 58:22 | Loss |
| E. Comrie | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Johnston | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:32 | 5:22 |
| R. Hintz | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 18:09 | 5:12 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:26 | 5:12 |
| M. Marchment | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:51 | 2:53 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 17:28 | 4:47 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:33 | 0:00 |
| M. Duchene | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 16:23 | 2:44 |
| E. Dadonov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:11 | 2:23 |
| T. Seguin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:08 | 2:18 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:42 | 0:00 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:21 | 0:00 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:11 | 0:00 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:22 | 2:59 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 22:36 | 0:20 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 24:22 | 4:59 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:36 | 0:00 |
| N. Lundkvist | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:33 | 0:34 |
| A. Petrovic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:36 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 27 | 26 | 1 | .963 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WPG 2.8, DAL 3.2 | WPG 1, DAL 3 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | WPG 26.6, DAL 32.1 | WPG 27, DAL 31 |
| Win chance | DAL 56% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG K. Connor | 2.8 | 4 | 0.87 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.8 | 2 | 0.68 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| DAL T. Seguin | 2.5 | 0 | 0.68 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.4 | 5 | 0.79 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 2.2 | 2 | 0.64 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 2.1 | 5 | 0.73 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 2.0 | 3 | 0.69 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 2.0 | 1 | 0.65 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.9 | 0 | 0.74 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| DAL M. Marchment | 1.9 | 4 | 0.62 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.8 | 0 | 0.64 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 1.8 | 2 | 0.82 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 1.7 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 1.7 | 4 | 0.43 | 2 | 9% | 0 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 1.6 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WPG N. Pionk | 1.6 | 2 | 0.42 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL E. Dadonov | 1.4 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.4 | 4 | 0.30 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| WPG M. Appleton | 1.3 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.3 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WPG A. Lowry | 1.2 | 3 | 0.39 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.2 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WPG C. Miller | 1.1 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL N. Lundkvist | 1.1 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG H. Fleury | 1.1 | 2 | 0.12 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| WPG V. Namestnikov | 1.1 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG M. Barron | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WPG L. Stanley | 0.9 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.9 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WPG R. Kupari | 0.8 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG D. Gustafsson | 0.7 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.6 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| DAL A. Petrovic | 0.6 | 0 | 0.07 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.