Game Recap: WPG 4, DAL 0, April 10, 2025

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Game Recap

WPG4

FinalThu, Apr 10, 2025Every game that night

DAL0

WPG beat DAL 4-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.36 expected goals to 2.30. WPG outshot DAL 35 to 25. K. Connor led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Morrissey had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. C. Hellebuyck stopped 25 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WPG	1	1	2	4
DAL	0	0	0	0

1st 18:37WPGN. Niederreiter0.06 xG
2nd 3:37WPGM. Barron0.26 xG
3rd 6:20WPGK. Connor0.28 xG
3rd 8:40WPGK. Connor0.16 xG

Team Stats

WPGDAL

35Shots on goal25

3.36Expected goals2.30

58Shot attempts58

305v5 shots on goal22

0/1Power play0/1

44Hits27

15Blocked shots10

7Penalty minutes7

8Giveaways26

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 3.36 xGDAL 2.30 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG33 on goal, 4 scored

DAL24 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Connor	LW	2	0	2	5	0	0	+2	0	19:15	1:26
M. Scheifele	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	+2	0	17:58	1:26
A. Iafallo	LW	0	1	1	1	0	2	+1	0	17:39	1:26
N. Niederreiter	RW	1	0	1	4	4	0	+1	0	15:30	0:34
A. Lowry	C	0	1	1	1	6	2	+1	0	14:49	0:00
M. Barron	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	12:29	0:00
B. Tanev	LW	0	1	1	1	6	0	+1	0	11:35	0:00
J. Anderson-Dolan	C	0	1	1	0	4	1	+2	0	11:11	0:00
M. Appleton	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	16:12	0:34
C. Perfetti	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:44	1:26
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:37	0:34
N. Ehlers	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	7	13:12	0:00
J. Morrissey	D	0	2	2	5	0	1	+3	0	23:43	1:26
L. Stanley	D	0	1	1	0	5	2	0	0	15:08	0:00
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	3	2	2	+1	0	20:41	0:34
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	+2	0	20:15	0:00
N. Pionk	D	0	0	0	3	4	1	0	0	19:37	0:34
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	2	7	2	+2	0	19:25	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	25	25	0	1.000	60:00	Win
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Rantanen	RW	0	2	1	0	0	18:38	1:48
M. Duchene	C	1	1	0	-2	0	17:31	0:15
J. Robertson	LW	3	0	0	-1	0	17:16	1:44
M. Granlund	C	1	1	0	-2	0	16:47	0:13
M. Bourque	C	2	2	0	0	0	16:18	0:01
R. Hintz	C	2	2	0	-1	0	15:53	1:47
M. Marchment	LW	2	4	1	-2	0	15:48	0:15
W. Johnston	C	1	1	1	-1	0	14:55	1:44
J. Benn	LW	1	4	0	0	0	13:58	0:01
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	-1	0	11:51	0:00
E. Dadonov	LW	2	1	0	-1	0	11:12	0:00
S. Steel	C	1	0	0	-1	7	9:26	0:00
T. Harley	D	3	0	0	0	0	24:49	1:44
E. Lindell	D	3	1	4	-1	0	22:13	0:12
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	1	1	0	0	21:56	0:00
C. Ceci	D	1	0	2	-1	0	20:06	0:01
L. Bichsel	D	1	7	0	-3	0	14:44	0:00
M. Dumba	D	1	0	0	-3	0	14:39	0:15

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	35	31	4	.886	60:00	Loss
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WPG 3.1, DAL 2.8	WPG 4, DAL 0
Total goals	5.8	4
Shots on goal	WPG 28.7, DAL 25.7	WPG 35, DAL 25
Win chance	WPG 54%	WPG won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.1	5	0.92	2	33%	2
WPG N. Ehlers	2.4	2	0.70	0	23%	0
DAL J. Robertson	2.4	3	0.83	0	30%	0
DAL M. Rantanen	2.4	0	0.86	0	31%	0
DAL W. Johnston	2.3	1	0.70	0	29%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	2.3	5	0.61	2	11%	0
DAL T. Harley	2.1	3	0.52	0	11%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.1	2	0.87	1	31%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	1.9	1	0.57	0	20%	0
DAL R. Hintz	1.9	2	0.74	0	29%	0
DAL M. Marchment	1.8	2	0.51	0	20%	0
DAL M. Duchene	1.8	1	0.70	0	25%	0
WPG N. Pionk	1.7	3	0.36	0	6%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.7	4	0.40	1	19%	1
WPG A. Iafallo	1.7	1	0.40	1	17%	0
DAL M. Granlund	1.6	1	0.56	0	14%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.5	1	0.53	0	18%	0
WPG M. Appleton	1.4	1	0.32	0	13%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.4	3	0.23	0	4%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.4	1	0.38	1	16%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.2	0	0.42	0	13%	0
DAL E. Dadonov	1.2	2	0.36	0	15%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.2	3	0.28	0	6%	0
WPG L. Schenn	1.2	2	0.13	0	3%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.1	2	0.31	0	13%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	1.1	1	0.24	0	4%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.1	3	0.19	1	9%	1
DAL S. Steel	1.0	1	0.25	0	9%	0
WPG J. Anderson-Dolan	1.0	0	0.16	1	8%	0
DAL C. Ceci	1.0	1	0.23	0	4%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	1.0	1	0.19	0	5%	0
WPG B. Tanev	0.9	1	0.21	1	10%	0
DAL M. Dumba	0.9	1	0.13	0	3%	0
WPG L. Stanley	0.9	0	0.16	1	2%	0
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.7	0	0.17	0	2%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.6	0	0.19	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 26 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.