Game Recap: WPG 3, DAL 4 (OT), February 2, 2026

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Game Recap

WPG3

Final/OTMon, Feb 2, 2026Every game that night

DAL4

DAL beat WPG 4-3 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 5.03 expected goals to 2.69. C. Perfetti led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). D. DeMelo had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. J. Oettinger stopped 24 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
WPG	0	2	1	0	3
DAL	0	2	1	1	4

2nd 0:48DALJ. RobertsonPP0.09 xG
2nd 2:26WPGG. Vilardi0.33 xG
2nd 3:58WPGC. PerfettiPP0.17 xG
2nd 15:13DALN. Lundkvist0.45 xG
3rd 12:17DALM. Rantanen0.16 xG
3rd 18:17WPGL. Stanley0.05 xG
OT 2:05DALT. Harley0.26 xG

Team Stats

WPGDAL

27Shots on goal28

2.69Expected goals5.03

55Shot attempts59

215v5 shots on goal23

1/3Power play1/4

28Hits24

7Blocked shots19

8Penalty minutes6

13Giveaways14

3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 2.69 xGDAL 5.03 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG26 on goal, 3 scored

DAL28 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Scheifele	C	0	2	2	2	0	1	-2	0	24:36	2:45
G. Vilardi	C	1	1	2	2	0	1	+2	0	18:10	2:53
C. Perfetti	C	1	1	2	3	1	0	+2	0	16:42	2:58
K. Connor	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	-2	0	23:50	2:59
A. Lowry	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	16:01	0:00
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	13:03	0:01
G. Nyquist	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	12:40	1:27
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	12:29	1:30
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	12:23	1:18
J. Toews	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	12:04	1:29
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	2	5	0	0	2	11:06	0:02
C. Koepke	LW	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	8:14	0:00
L. Stanley	D	1	0	1	2	3	1	0	0	15:27	1:19
J. Morrissey	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	25:17	3:08
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	22:50	0:00
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	4	1	0	-1	0	22:26	0:26
E. Salomonsson	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	20:28	0:00
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	2	12:16	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	28	24	4	.857	61:09	OT loss
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Rantanen	RW	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	2	21:55	5:32
M. Duchene	C	0	2	2	3	1	1	+2	0	17:22	1:18
J. Robertson	LW	1	0	1	2	4	1	0	0	20:39	5:22
R. Hintz	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	19:30	4:41
J. Benn	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	14:00	0:28
J. Hryckowian	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	13:00	0:00
W. Johnston	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	20:30	4:37
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	+1	0	17:29	0:00
M. Bourque	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	+1	0	15:11	1:17
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	9:03	0:00
R. Faksa	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	2	8:19	0:00
A. Erne	LW	0	0	0	1	5	0	-1	0	7:48	0:00
M. Heiskanen	D	0	2	2	3	1	2	-1	2	26:18	4:19
T. Harley	D	1	0	1	4	1	2	+1	0	23:52	1:36
N. Lundkvist	D	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	18:06	0:00
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	3	1	5	-1	0	23:26	0:25
A. Petrovic	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	0	12:52	0:00
K. Capobianco	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	12:28	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	27	24	3	.889	62:05	Win
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WPG

Line 1M. Scheifele19:26K. Connor18:45G. Nyquist10:58

Line 2A. Lowry13:29G. Vilardi14:21C. Perfetti11:54

Line 3N. Niederreiter10:59V. Namestnikov11:05J. Toews10:35

Line 4A. Iafallo10:56M. Barron7:57C. Koepke5:30

Pair 1D. DeMelo17:43J. Morrissey19:48

Pair 2D. Samberg17:55E. Salomonsson18:38

Pair 3L. Schenn11:09L. Stanley12:22

DAL

Line 1M. Duchene15:52S. Steel15:38J. Benn13:32

Line 2M. Rantanen14:41W. Johnston13:20J. Hryckowian11:19

Line 3M. Bourque13:13R. Hintz12:38J. Robertson14:15

Line 4A. Erne7:43R. Faksa6:49O. Bäck6:38

Pair 1E. Lindell19:05M. Heiskanen18:39

Pair 2N. Lundkvist17:33T. Harley18:43

Pair 3A. Petrovic11:28K. Capobianco12:24

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WPG 2.7, DAL 3.0	WPG 3, DAL 4
Total goals	5.8	7
Shots on goal	WPG 24.4, DAL 25.9	WPG 27, DAL 28
Win chance	DAL 56%	DAL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.1	1	1.06	1	35%	0
DAL J. Robertson	3.0	2	1.02	1	35%	1
DAL W. Johnston	2.4	1	0.82	0	31%	0
DAL M. Rantanen	2.3	1	1.09	2	33%	1
WPG M. Scheifele	2.1	2	1.02	2	34%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.1	3	0.71	2	11%	0
DAL R. Hintz	2.1	1	0.78	1	28%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	2.0	2	0.68	0	14%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.8	4	0.52	1	12%	1
WPG G. Vilardi	1.8	2	0.73	2	27%	1
WPG C. Perfetti	1.7	3	0.48	2	17%	1
DAL M. Bourque	1.6	0	0.39	0	16%	0
DAL M. Duchene	1.5	3	0.61	2	23%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	1.4	1	0.26	1	5%	1
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.3	1	0.34	0	16%	0
WPG J. Toews	1.3	0	0.40	0	15%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.3	2	0.25	0	11%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.3	1	0.23	0	4%	0
WPG E. Salomonsson	1.3	1	0.10	0	4%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.2	1	0.34	0	15%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.2	2	0.46	1	16%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.1	0	0.33	1	14%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.1	3	0.34	0	8%	0
WPG G. Nyquist	1.1	1	0.37	0	12%	0
WPG L. Stanley	1.1	2	0.26	1	7%	1
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.1	0	0.33	0	12%	0
DAL J. Hryckowian	1.1	1	0.33	1	14%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.1	2	0.36	0	10%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	1.1	4	0.27	0	5%	0
DAL A. Petrovic	0.9	0	0.15	0	4%	0
WPG C. Koepke	0.9	3	0.20	0	9%	0
WPG L. Schenn	0.8	1	0.11	0	3%	0
DAL R. Faksa	0.7	0	0.25	0	7%	0
DAL A. Erne	0.7	1	0.17	0	7%	0
DAL K. Capobianco	0.7	1	0.15	0	5%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.5	2	0.19	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.