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Game Recap
WPG2
Final/OTThu, Oct 22, 2026Every game that night
DAL3

DAL beat WPG 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.12 expected goals to 2.75. DAL outshot WPG 38 to 19. R. Hintz led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). M. Heiskanen had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. J. Oettinger stopped 17 of 19.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
WPG02002
DAL01113
  1. 2nd 1:17DALW. Johnston0.23 xG
  2. 2nd 10:50WPGG. Vilardi0.61 xG
  3. 2nd 12:38WPGK. Connor0.12 xG
  4. 3rd 18:00DALR. Hintz0.22 xG
  5. OT 3:47DALR. Hintz0.30 xG

Team Stats

WPGDAL
19Shots on goal38
2.75Expected goals4.12
41Shot attempts60
125v5 shots on goal29
0/4Power play0/2
24Hits15
7Blocked shots14
6Penalty minutes10
10Giveaways12
6Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 2.75 xGDAL 4.12 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdOTDAL goal, 1:17WPG goal, 10:50WPG goal, 12:38DAL goal, 18:00DAL goal, 3:47

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG19 on goal, 2 scored
DAL38 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
K. ConnorLW1013000023:025:54
G. VilardiC1012000019:415:27
A. IafalloLW0110000012:390:00
M. ScheifeleC0002110023:405:56
C. PerfettiC0002100019:005:37
A. LowryC000010-1016:370:00
I. RosenRW0001000015:182:04
B. YagerC0001000014:381:59
M. BarronC000011-1014:230:00
V. BjörckC0002100012:432:06
N. NiederreiterRW000040009:522:06
B. LambertC000110027:100:00
N. PionkD011232-2029:425:46
D. SambergD011110+1022:190:35
D. DeMeloD0001110022:410:25
M. FerraroD000171-1219:230:00
H. FleuryD0000010214:101:49
T. BauerD000020+109:000:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Skinner38353.92163:47OT loss
C. Stevenson000–0:00

DAL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
J. RobertsonLW022401+3021:423:56
M. RantanenRW022100+1020:093:58
W. JohnstonC112420+1019:552:08
R. HintzC202531+2215:202:06
J. HryckowianC0002200017:221:54
A. HyryRW000000-1016:110:00
S. SteelC000210-1216:090:00
T. SeguinC000311+1215:091:52
J. BennLW000300-1013:220:02
J. KivirantaLW0002000010:020:00
C. BlackwellC000010009:260:00
R. FaksaC000120007:230:00
M. HeiskanenD011501+3029:202:23
T. HarleyD000222-1028:271:37
L. BichselD000112-1017:470:00
N. LundkvistD0001020016:470:00
T. MyersD0001020415:440:00
K. CapobiancoD000102-1012:270:04
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Oettinger19172.89563:03Win
C. DeSmith000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WPG

Line 1M. Scheifele14:51K. Connor14:22C. Perfetti12:38
Line 2A. Lowry12:20B. Yager10:29I. Rosen11:14
Line 3G. Vilardi13:22A. Iafallo11:06V. Björck9:35
Line 4M. Barron11:30B. Lambert7:10N. Niederreiter7:46
Pair 1D. Samberg17:12N. Pionk18:09
Pair 2D. DeMelo19:08M. Ferraro17:04
Pair 3H. Fleury10:44T. Bauer9:00

DAL

Line 1W. Johnston15:17M. Rantanen13:46S. Steel12:40
Line 2J. Benn12:50A. Hyry12:33J. Hryckowian11:19
Line 3T. Seguin11:31R. Hintz11:45J. Robertson14:38
Line 4C. Blackwell8:35J. Kiviranta6:34R. Faksa5:02
Pair 1T. Harley19:32M. Heiskanen17:35
Pair 2T. Myers13:34L. Bichsel14:05
Pair 3K. Capobianco11:59N. Lundkvist14:25

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

10 of 12 overs hit (83%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
WPG C. Perfetti2.5+138-1752Under
DAL J. Robertson2.5-155+1344Over
WPG K. Connor2.5-160+1303Over
DAL M. Rantanen2.5+136-1751Under
DAL W. Johnston2.5+118-1404Over
WPG G. Vilardi1.5+110-1352Over
DAL M. Heiskanen1.5-140+1255Over
WPG M. Scheifele1.5-130+1052Over
WPG N. Pionk1.5-110-1152Over
DAL R. Hintz1.5-185+1405Over
DAL T. Harley1.5-130+1102Over
DAL T. Seguin1.5-115+1103Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreWPG 2.5, DAL 3.2WPG 2, DAL 3
Total goals5.75
Shots on goalWPG 23.8, DAL 26.6WPG 19, DAL 38
Win chanceDAL 61%DAL won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
DAL J. Robertson3.041.10237%0
WPG K. Connor3.030.94134%1
DAL W. Johnston2.540.99236%1
DAL M. Rantanen2.311.22236%0
WPG C. Perfetti2.120.59022%0
DAL R. Hintz2.150.86230%2
DAL M. Heiskanen2.150.84114%0
DAL T. Harley1.920.58013%0
WPG N. Pionk1.820.47110%0
WPG M. Scheifele1.820.93030%0
DAL T. Seguin1.830.63023%0
WPG G. Vilardi1.620.65125%1
DAL A. Hyry1.400.33016%0
WPG A. Iafallo1.400.33115%0
WPG D. Samberg1.310.2515%0
DAL S. Steel1.320.48016%0
DAL J. Benn1.230.48017%0
WPG M. Barron1.100.25011%0
WPG N. Niederreiter1.100.26013%0
WPG I. Rosen1.110.22011%0
DAL J. Hryckowian1.120.37015%0
WPG V. Björck1.120.26013%0
WPG M. Ferraro1.010.2206%0
DAL N. Lundkvist1.010.2705%0
WPG A. Lowry1.000.32013%0
DAL J. Kiviranta1.020.21010%0
DAL T. Myers1.010.1803%0
DAL C. Blackwell0.900.2008%0
WPG H. Fleury0.900.1504%0
WPG D. DeMelo0.910.2305%0
DAL R. Faksa0.710.2307%0
DAL L. Bichsel0.710.1706%0
WPG B. Lambert0.710.1506%0
DAL K. Capobianco0.610.1304%0
WPG T. Bauer0.500.0501%0

Shots on goal: 24 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.