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Game Recap
WPG8
FinalThu, Nov 12, 2026Every game that night
DAL3

WPG beat DAL 8-3, with the chances close: 4.00 expected goals to 3.61. M. Scheifele led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). D. Perron had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. S. Skinner stopped 30 of 33.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
WPG0538
DAL2103
  1. 1st 4:19DALA. Hyry0.13 xG
  2. 1st 18:32DALR. Hintz0.20 xG
  3. 2nd 1:11WPGD. Samberg0.06 xG
  4. 2nd 7:03WPGM. Scheifele0.36 xG
  5. 2nd 11:14DALD. Perron0.08 xG
  6. 2nd 13:55WPGD. Mercer0.09 xG
  7. 2nd 18:12WPGM. ScheifelePP0.16 xG
  8. 2nd 19:51WPGD. Mercer0.13 xG
  9. 3rd 1:00WPGK. Connor0.15 xG
  10. 3rd 15:12WPGG. Vilardi0.19 xG
  11. 3rd 15:26WPGC. Koepke0.14 xG

Team Stats

WPGDAL
30Shots on goal33
4.00Expected goals3.61
53Shot attempts65
215v5 shots on goal27
1/3Power play0/2
17Hits24
15Blocked shots9
4Penalty minutes6
13Giveaways15
5Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 4.00 xGDAL 3.61 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdDAL goal, 4:19DAL goal, 18:32WPG goal, 1:11WPG goal, 7:03DAL goal, 11:14WPG goal, 13:55WPG goal, 18:12WPG goal, 19:51WPG goal, 1:00WPG goal, 15:12WPG goal, 15:26

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG29 on goal, 8 scored
DAL33 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
K. ConnorLW123400+3018:284:13
M. ScheifeleC213202+3018:013:56
G. VilardiC123411+3017:173:20
C. PerfettiC022101+2017:303:50
D. MercerC202412+2015:471:11
B. YagerC011300+1014:301:27
M. BarronC011221-1012:500:00
C. KoepkeLW101230-1012:150:00
A. IafalloLW0000000016:172:00
A. LowryC000130+1015:050:00
V. BjörckC000110+1014:531:03
I. RosenRW000021-207:570:00
D. SambergD112201+4024:010:10
J. MorrisseyD011204+4224:033:17
N. PionkD000220+1027:172:02
M. FerraroD000010-1022:430:01
T. BauerD000012+1014:330:00
D. DeMeloD000000-122:330:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Skinner33303.90960:00Win
N. Daws000–0:00

DAL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
R. HintzC1123100013:211:08
J. RobertsonLW0112110016:441:43
D. PerronLW101610-1014:291:56
A. HyryRW1011000013:320:00
M. RantanenRW000000-2017:411:44
W. JohnstonC000400-3017:131:11
J. HryckowianC0003200016:022:48
T. SeguinC000620-1215:142:47
S. SteelC000110-3014:580:04
R. FaksaC000331-1014:130:05
J. BennLW000111-1213:482:12
J. KivirantaLW0000500011:490:02
T. HarleyD022101-2026:271:42
N. LundkvistD022021-2224:190:21
E. LindellD000002-2024:272:13
T. MyersD000130-1021:140:00
T. TaylorD000122-1018:170:04
L. BichselD000000001:140:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Oettinger27216.77841:00Loss
C. DeSmith312.33318:40

Lines at 5-on-5

WPG

Line 1M. Scheifele13:48K. Connor13:28G. Vilardi13:57
Line 2D. Mercer13:40C. Perfetti13:20B. Yager12:43
Line 3A. Iafallo13:36V. Björck13:45A. Lowry14:04
Line 4M. Barron10:47C. Koepke9:47I. Rosen7:57
Pair 1D. Samberg22:27N. Pionk23:08
Pair 2M. Ferraro20:05T. Bauer13:09
Pair 3D. DeMelo2:33J. Morrissey19:36

DAL

Line 1M. Rantanen15:20W. Johnston15:47J. Benn11:36
Line 2R. Hintz12:13J. Robertson14:41A. Hyry11:04
Line 3R. Faksa11:45J. Kiviranta10:53D. Perron12:33
Line 4S. Steel12:11J. Hryckowian10:40T. Seguin12:07
Pair 1T. Harley23:11N. Lundkvist23:03
Pair 2T. Myers16:54T. Taylor17:47
Pair 3E. Lindell18:51L. Bichsel1:14

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

9 of 15 overs hit (60%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
WPG K. Connor3.5+136-1604Over
WPG C. Perfetti2.5+148-1701Under
DAL J. Robertson2.5-140+1252Under
DAL T. Harley2.5+135-1701Under
DAL W. Johnston2.5+100-1104Over
DAL A. Hyry1.5-145+1201Under
WPG D. Mercer1.5+111-1354Over
WPG G. Vilardi1.5-120+1004Over
DAL J. Benn1.5+135-1551Under
WPG J. Morrissey1.5-122+1102Over
DAL M. Rantanen1.5-180+1500Under
WPG M. Scheifele1.5-155+1202Over
WPG N. Pionk1.5-118-1102Over
DAL R. Hintz1.5-165+1403Over
DAL T. Seguin1.5-120+1006Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

  • MilestoneAlex Iafallo WPG 1 point from 300Not yet: 0 SOG
  • MilestoneJamie Benn DAL 1 point from 1,000Not yet: 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreWPG 2.6, DAL 3.3WPG 8, DAL 3
Total goals5.911
Shots on goalWPG 23.8, DAL 26.5WPG 30, DAL 33
Win chanceDAL 62%WPG won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
WPG K. Connor3.241.01337%1
DAL J. Robertson3.121.18139%0
DAL W. Johnston2.441.01036%0
DAL R. Hintz2.030.89230%1
WPG C. Perfetti2.010.58222%0
DAL M. Rantanen2.001.13032%0
DAL T. Harley2.010.66214%0
WPG M. Scheifele1.920.96330%2
WPG N. Pionk1.920.46010%0
DAL A. Hyry1.810.41118%1
WPG J. Morrissey1.720.60112%0
WPG G. Vilardi1.740.70327%1
DAL T. Seguin1.660.58022%0
WPG D. Mercer1.540.39218%2
DAL J. Benn1.410.57019%0
DAL D. Perron1.360.41117%1
DAL N. Lundkvist1.200.3327%0
WPG M. Barron1.220.27112%0
WPG D. Samberg1.220.2625%1
WPG A. Iafallo1.100.28012%0
DAL J. Kiviranta1.100.24011%0
DAL S. Steel1.110.41013%0
DAL T. Myers1.110.2406%0
DAL J. Hryckowian1.130.37015%0
DAL E. Lindell1.000.3106%0
WPG B. Yager0.930.1619%0
WPG C. Koepke0.920.1719%1
WPG A. Lowry0.910.30013%0
WPG D. DeMelo0.900.2504%0
DAL L. Bichsel0.900.1805%0
WPG I. Rosen0.800.1508%0
WPG V. Björck0.810.24010%0
WPG M. Ferraro0.800.1503%0
DAL R. Faksa0.830.2508%0
WPG T. Bauer0.500.1002%0

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.