Game Recap: WPG 0, FLA 5, November 16, 2024

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Game Recap

WPG0

FinalSat, Nov 16, 2024Every game that night

FLA5

FLA beat WPG 5-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.81 expected goals to 1.22. A. Barkov led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). N. Ehlers had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. S. Bobrovsky stopped 27 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WPG	0	0	0	0
FLA	1	3	1	5

1st 14:59FLAM. Samoskevich0.12 xG
2nd 2:07FLAN. Schmidt0.17 xG
2nd 12:21FLAE. Rodrigues0.44 xG
2nd 14:36FLAA. BarkovSH0.16 xG
3rd 3:23FLAD. Kulikov0.20 xG

Team Stats

WPGFLA

27Shots on goal31

1.22Expected goals3.81

42Shot attempts54

255v5 shots on goal22

0/2Power play0/3

29Hits27

14Blocked shots11

43Penalty minutes31

13Giveaways17

7Takeaways13

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 1.22 xGFLA 3.81 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG26 on goal, 0 scored

FLA30 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
V. Namestnikov	C	0	2	2	0	12	17:01	1:09
A. Lowry	C	0	4	3	-1	0	16:19	0:00
M. Appleton	C	1	0	0	0	0	16:15	0:00
K. Connor	LW	2	1	1	-3	0	16:08	0:50
N. Ehlers	LW	5	0	0	-2	0	16:04	0:49
M. Scheifele	C	2	2	1	-3	7	14:43	1:08
G. Vilardi	C	1	0	1	-3	0	14:03	1:06
C. Perfetti	C	3	2	1	0	0	13:47	1:28
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	3	0	0	0	13:08	1:11
M. Barron	C	1	2	0	-1	0	12:26	0:00
A. Iafallo	LW	1	0	0	-1	0	12:08	0:51
R. Kupari	C	1	0	1	-1	2	11:04	0:00
D. DeMelo	D	2	3	0	-2	0	24:09	0:17
J. Morrissey	D	4	0	0	-3	2	22:05	1:02
N. Pionk	D	1	5	1	-2	10	20:14	0:58
D. Samberg	D	0	1	1	-2	0	18:44	0:00
C. Miller	D	1	2	2	0	10	18:14	0:19
H. Fleury	D	2	2	0	0	0	15:28	0:17

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	31	26	5	.839	60:00	Loss
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Reinhart	C	0	3	3	3	2	2	+3	0	17:55	1:25
A. Barkov	C	1	2	3	3	2	1	+3	0	17:05	1:25
E. Rodrigues	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	15:20	1:51
S. Bennett	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	10	13:11	0:49
M. Samoskevich	RW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	11:29	1:02
A. Greer	LW	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	10	10:19	0:00
A. Lundell	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	16:58	1:43
J. Boqvist	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:54	1:03
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	2	15:26	1:23
E. Luostarinen	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	15:08	1:02
T. Nosek	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	13:28	1:09
M. Tkachuk	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	2	12:48	1:25
G. Forsling	D	0	2	2	3	2	1	+4	0	21:29	0:05
D. Kulikov	D	1	0	1	3	2	1	+1	0	21:18	1:04
A. Ekblad	D	0	1	1	3	2	1	+2	7	19:25	0:52
N. Schmidt	D	1	0	1	1	1	2	+1	0	17:24	1:32
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	21:59	0:57
U. Balinskis	D	0	0	0	2	3	0	+1	0	17:42	2:38

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Bobrovsky	27	27	0	1.000	59:42	Win
S. Knight	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WPG 2.9, FLA 3.0	WPG 0, FLA 5
Total goals	6.0	5
Shots on goal	WPG 27.2, FLA 32.2	WPG 27, FLA 31
Win chance	FLA 52%	FLA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
FLA C. Verhaeghe	3.2	1	0.77	0	32%	0
FLA M. Tkachuk	3.1	1	0.92	0	29%	0
WPG K. Connor	3.0	2	0.87	0	34%	0
FLA S. Reinhart	2.7	3	0.88	3	37%	0
FLA S. Bennett	2.5	2	0.60	1	24%	0
WPG N. Ehlers	2.5	5	0.72	0	25%	0
FLA A. Barkov	2.4	3	0.93	3	27%	1
FLA A. Lundell	2.2	2	0.58	0	19%	0
FLA E. Rodrigues	2.1	2	0.48	1	18%	1
WPG J. Morrissey	2.1	4	0.74	0	12%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	2.1	1	0.67	0	29%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	1.9	2	0.85	0	31%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.9	0	0.42	0	20%	0
FLA G. Forsling	1.8	3	0.41	2	10%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	1.7	3	0.50	0	18%	0
WPG N. Pionk	1.6	1	0.46	0	7%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	1.6	3	0.36	1	9%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.4	0	0.35	0	14%	0
WPG M. Appleton	1.3	1	0.35	0	13%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.3	0	0.25	0	4%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	1.2	0	0.32	0	15%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.2	0	0.38	0	14%	0
FLA M. Samoskevich	1.2	1	0.20	1	10%	1
FLA U. Balinskis	1.2	2	0.20	0	3%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.1	0	0.20	0	3%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.1	0	0.41	0	14%	0
FLA A. Greer	1.1	3	0.20	1	9%	0
WPG H. Fleury	1.1	2	0.11	0	3%	0
WPG C. Miller	1.1	1	0.19	0	5%	0
FLA D. Kulikov	1.1	3	0.24	1	4%	1
FLA T. Nosek	1.0	1	0.21	0	7%	0
FLA N. Schmidt	1.0	1	0.22	1	5%	1
WPG M. Barron	1.0	1	0.18	0	9%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	1.0	2	0.30	0	4%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	0.9	1	0.25	0	11%	0
WPG R. Kupari	0.8	1	0.13	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.