Game Recap: WPG 6, NJD 1, March 7, 2025

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Game Recap

WPG6

FinalFri, Mar 7, 2025Every game that night

NJD1

WPG beat NJD 6-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.71 expected goals to 2.70. WPG outshot NJD 35 to 23. N. Ehlers led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). C. Miller had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. C. Hellebuyck stopped 22 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WPG	1	2	3	6
NJD	0	0	1	1

1st 18:17WPGA. Iafallo0.20 xG
2nd 3:48WPGJ. MorrisseyPP0.32 xG
2nd 19:30WPGN. Ehlers0.06 xG
3rd 0:31NJDD. Mercer0.07 xG
3rd 11:56WPGA. Lowry0.09 xG
3rd 14:21WPGK. Connor0.10 xG
3rd 16:55WPGC. Perfetti0.18 xG

Team Stats

WPGNJD

35Shots on goal23

3.71Expected goals2.70

51Shot attempts60

305v5 shots on goal22

1/2Power play0/2

23Hits32

19Blocked shots8

4Penalty minutes4

8Giveaways14

3Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 3.71 xGNJD 2.70 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG35 on goal, 6 scored

NJD23 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Ehlers	LW	1	2	3	4	1	0	+1	0	16:09	2:57
K. Connor	LW	1	1	2	2	0	2	+1	0	18:23	3:01
M. Scheifele	C	0	1	1	3	4	0	+2	0	16:55	2:58
G. Vilardi	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+2	0	16:23	2:59
C. Perfetti	C	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	0	14:16	0:53
A. Lowry	C	1	0	1	2	5	0	+1	2	13:25	0:00
A. Iafallo	LW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	11:40	0:56
M. Appleton	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	16:17	0:00
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	16:11	0:57
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	15:02	0:55
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	3	3	0	+1	0	12:40	0:00
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	11:28	0:00
J. Morrissey	D	1	1	2	4	0	2	+1	0	23:24	3:14
D. Samberg	D	0	1	1	0	2	2	+1	0	22:55	0:00
D. DeMelo	D	0	1	1	2	1	4	+1	0	20:42	0:00
L. Stanley	D	0	1	1	1	2	1	+2	2	15:58	0:00
C. Miller	D	0	1	1	4	1	3	+2	0	13:59	0:00
N. Pionk	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	+1	0	20:13	0:40

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	23	22	1	.957	60:00	Win
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Mercer	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	16:56	1:41
O. Palat	LW	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	14:09	1:59
N. Hischier	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-3	0	18:31	2:12
J. Bratt	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-3	0	17:35	2:03
T. Meier	RW	0	0	0	2	4	1	-3	0	16:22	2:00
S. Noesen	RW	0	0	0	2	5	0	-1	0	15:57	2:19
T. Tatar	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:34	1:49
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	15:17	1:57
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	15:00	0:00
C. Lazar	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	11:49	0:00
J. Dowling	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	0	11:41	0:00
N. Bastian	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	11:28	0:00
J. Kovacevic	D	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	2	19:44	0:00
B. Pesce	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	21:29	0:00
L. Hughes	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	0	21:21	2:21
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-3	0	20:22	0:00
S. Nemec	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	-3	2	16:34	1:39
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	16:17	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Markstrom	35	29	6	.829	60:00	Loss
J. Allen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamDawson Mercer WPG First game back in Newark, his team until Oct 20261 G, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WPG 2.8, NJD 2.7	WPG 6, NJD 1
Total goals	5.5	7
Shots on goal	WPG 25.6, NJD 28.0	WPG 35, NJD 23
Win chance	WPG 50%	WPG won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.0	2	0.92	2	35%	1
NJD T. Meier	2.8	2	0.63	0	29%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.5	2	0.80	0	29%	0
WPG N. Ehlers	2.5	4	0.72	3	25%	1
WPG J. Morrissey	2.1	4	0.67	2	13%	1
NJD J. Bratt	2.1	1	0.82	0	24%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	1.9	3	0.85	1	32%	0
NJD L. Hughes	1.9	1	0.52	0	9%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	1.9	0	0.70	1	29%	0
NJD S. Noesen	1.9	2	0.43	0	20%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.7	2	0.38	0	19%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.7	1	0.42	1	21%	1
WPG N. Pionk	1.7	3	0.42	0	8%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.5	3	0.24	0	5%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	1.5	3	0.46	1	17%	1
NJD E. Haula	1.5	3	0.28	0	14%	0
WPG M. Appleton	1.4	0	0.31	0	12%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.4	0	0.26	1	5%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.3	0	0.37	1	16%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.2	2	0.35	1	15%	1
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.2	1	0.41	0	14%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.1	1	0.27	0	15%	0
WPG C. Miller	1.1	4	0.18	1	5%	0
NJD T. Tatar	1.1	0	0.28	0	13%	0
NJD J. Kovacevic	1.0	2	0.21	1	5%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.0	3	0.15	0	9%	0
WPG B. Tanev	1.0	0	0.22	0	11%	0
NJD N. Bastian	1.0	1	0.22	0	10%	0
NJD B. Dumoulin	1.0	0	0.22	0	4%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	0.9	1	0.22	1	10%	1
WPG D. DeMelo	0.9	2	0.26	1	4%	0
WPG L. Stanley	0.9	1	0.16	1	3%	0
NJD S. Nemec	0.9	0	0.17	0	3%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.8	1	0.22	0	5%	0
NJD C. Lazar	0.8	1	0.19	0	8%	0
NJD J. Dowling	0.7	2	0.16	0	9%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.