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Game Recap
WPG4
NJD3
WPG beat NJD 4-3, with the chances close: 3.05 expected goals to 2.50. M. Scheifele led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Hughes had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.5. C. Hellebuyck stopped 26 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| NJD | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 1:33WPGM. Scheifele0.12 xG
- 1st 8:02NJDL. Hameenaho0.11 xG
- 2nd 3:23WPGG. Vilardi0.05 xG
- 2nd 7:51WPGC. Koepke0.19 xG
- 2nd 16:42WPGN. Niederreiter0.18 xG
- 2nd 19:24NJDJ. BrattPP0.16 xG
- 3rd 18:14NJDN. Hischier0.11 xG
Team Stats
WPGNJD
26Shots on goal29
3.05Expected goals2.50
48Shot attempts63
225v5 shots on goal20
0/2Power play1/2
24Hits14
21Blocked shots11
4Penalty minutes4
20Giveaways11
2Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WPG 3.05 xGNJD 2.50 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Scheifele | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:35 | 2:20 |
| K. Connor | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 20:35 | 2:18 |
| G. Vilardi | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:48 | 2:16 |
| A. Lowry | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:28 | 0:00 |
| V. Namestnikov | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:43 | 1:32 |
| N. Niederreiter | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:35 | 1:42 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:02 | 1:58 |
| M. Barron | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:53 | 0:00 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:00 | 0:00 |
| J. Toews | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:03 | 1:57 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:34 | 1:44 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:59 | 0:02 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:16 | 0:00 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 23:43 | 2:29 |
| D. Samberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:25 | 0:11 |
| E. Salomonsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:49 | 0:00 |
| L. Stanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:06 | 1:31 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:04 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Hellebuyck | 29 | 26 | 3 | .897 | 59:37 | Win |
| E. Comrie | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NJD Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Hughes | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 25:14 | 3:45 |
| J. Bratt | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:00 | 3:45 |
| N. Hischier | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:07 | 3:14 |
| A. Gritsyuk | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:41 | 0:00 |
| L. Hameenaho | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:46 | 0:00 |
| T. Meier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:53 | 0:00 |
| C. Brown | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:35 | 3:10 |
| D. Mercer | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:18 | 0:35 |
| E. Dadonov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 13:41 | 0:31 |
| P. Cotter | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 7:50 | 0:00 |
| C. Glass | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 6:44 | 0:00 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 5:28 | 0:00 |
| D. Hamilton | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:07 | 3:08 |
| B. Pesce | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:32 | 0:00 |
| S. Nemec | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 18:52 | 0:37 |
| B. Dillon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:11 | 0:00 |
| J. Siegenthaler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:33 | 0:00 |
| J. Kovacevic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 15:55 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Allen | 26 | 22 | 4 | .846 | 57:33 | Loss |
| J. Markstrom | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
WPG
Line 1M. Scheifele16:50K. Connor17:06G. Vilardi15:41
Line 2N. Niederreiter12:48V. Namestnikov12:34A. Lowry13:41
Line 3J. Toews10:23C. Perfetti10:50T. Pearson10:37
Line 4M. Barron9:20C. Koepke8:18A. Iafallo9:58
Pair 1J. Morrissey19:53D. DeMelo18:49
Pair 2D. Samberg17:29E. Salomonsson16:39
Pair 3L. Schenn12:34L. Stanley13:35
NJD
Line 1L. Hameenaho15:07A. Gritsyuk15:49C. Glass6:19
Line 2E. Dadonov12:28D. Mercer13:16J. Hughes17:45
Line 3T. Meier16:24N. Hischier14:51J. Bratt13:21
Line 4C. Brown10:58P. Cotter7:50L. Glendening4:00
Pair 2J. Kovacevic15:05J. Siegenthaler14:49
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WPG 3.0, NJD 2.9 | WPG 4, NJD 3 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | WPG 25.1, NJD 28.4 | WPG 26, NJD 29 |
| Win chance | WPG 51% | WPG won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD J. Hughes | 3.5 | 6 | 1.03 | 2 | 33% | 0 |
| WPG K. Connor | 3.0 | 2 | 1.03 | 2 | 36% | 0 |
| NJD T. Meier | 2.9 | 3 | 0.59 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 2.7 | 3 | 0.57 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| NJD N. Hischier | 2.3 | 4 | 0.80 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| NJD J. Bratt | 2.1 | 2 | 0.81 | 2 | 23% | 1 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 2.0 | 4 | 1.00 | 2 | 35% | 1 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 1.9 | 3 | 0.73 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NJD A. Gritsyuk | 1.9 | 3 | 0.38 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 1.7 | 2 | 0.69 | 2 | 27% | 1 |
| NJD D. Mercer | 1.6 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| NJD C. Glass | 1.6 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 1.6 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NJD S. Nemec | 1.5 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 1.4 | 1 | 0.37 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.4 | 1 | 0.40 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| WPG J. Toews | 1.4 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NJD B. Pesce | 1.4 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NJD C. Brown | 1.4 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WPG M. Barron | 1.4 | 0 | 0.27 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| WPG D. Samberg | 1.3 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG A. Lowry | 1.2 | 0 | 0.34 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| WPG L. Stanley | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WPG V. Namestnikov | 1.1 | 3 | 0.34 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 1.1 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NJD J. Siegenthaler | 1.0 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WPG C. Koepke | 1.0 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| WPG T. Pearson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WPG E. Salomonsson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NJD E. Dadonov | 0.9 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WPG L. Schenn | 0.9 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NJD J. Kovacevic | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dillon | 0.8 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NJD P. Cotter | 0.7 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NJD L. Glendening | 0.6 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.