Game Recap: WPG 4, OTT 1, February 26, 2025

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Game Recap

WPG4

FinalWed, Feb 26, 2025Every game that night

OTT1

WPG beat OTT 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 5.07 expected goals to 2.06. WPG outshot OTT 39 to 24. K. Connor led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). T. Hamonic had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. C. Hellebuyck stopped 23 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WPG	2	1	1	4
OTT	0	1	0	1

1st 7:46WPGC. Perfetti0.06 xG
1st 9:03WPGM. Appleton0.30 xG
2nd 8:04WPGK. Connor0.14 xG
2nd 8:53OTTT. Chabot0.07 xG
3rd 17:04WPGM. ScheifeleEN0.88 xG

Team Stats

WPGOTT

39Shots on goal24

5.07Expected goals2.06

69Shot attempts53

335v5 shots on goal22

0/4Power play0/2

19Hits29

14Blocked shots14

11Penalty minutes15

4Giveaways8

0Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 5.07 xGOTT 2.06 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG40 on goal, 4 scored

OTT22 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Connor	LW	1	1	2	2	1	0	+2	0	21:20	4:40
M. Scheifele	C	1	0	1	5	1	0	+2	0	18:03	4:26
G. Vilardi	C	0	1	1	3	0	1	+1	0	17:43	4:27
N. Ehlers	LW	0	1	1	2	1	3	0	0	16:21	4:15
M. Appleton	C	1	0	1	3	1	1	+1	2	15:23	0:22
C. Perfetti	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	13:28	0:58
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	16:26	1:12
A. Lowry	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	+1	5	14:49	0:23
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	0	0	3	1	1	+1	0	13:55	1:10
D. Gustafsson	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	11:41	0:22
R. Kupari	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	11:15	0:00
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	11:00	1:06
D. DeMelo	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	20:22	0:39
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	3	3	4	+2	0	24:28	0:11
J. Morrissey	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	21:43	4:32
N. Pionk	D	0	0	0	4	1	0	+2	0	21:39	1:17
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	4	13:20	0:00
C. Miller	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	13:17	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	24	23	1	.958	59:47	Win
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Stützle	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	-1	0	19:52	3:53
R. Greig	C	0	0	0	2	4	3	-2	0	20:35	2:40
C. Giroux	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	19:03	3:08
M. Highmore	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	17:52	0:00
D. Batherson	RW	0	0	0	0	5	0	-2	0	17:46	3:11
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	16:37	0:48
D. Perron	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-2	0	15:30	0:52
A. Crookshank	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	14:04	0:07
A. Gaudette	RW	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	0	13:55	1:12
N. Gregor	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	13:31	0:00
J. Jenik	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	7:51	0:00
T. Chabot	D	1	0	1	5	1	1	0	0	22:43	0:45
J. Sanderson	D	0	0	0	2	1	4	-2	2	24:50	3:15
A. Zub	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	21:29	0:00
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:58	0:09
T. Hamonic	D	0	0	0	5	1	2	-2	0	16:32	0:00
N. Matinpalo	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	6	11:13	0:00
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	5	2:25	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	38	36	3	.947	59:14	Loss
A. Forsberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamNoah Gregor WPG Faces OTT, his team until Mar 20250 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WPG 3.0, OTT 2.5	WPG 4, OTT 1
Total goals	5.5	5
Shots on goal	WPG 27.2, OTT 28.7	WPG 39, OTT 24
Win chance	WPG 58%	WPG won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.4	2	1.04	2	38%	1
WPG N. Ehlers	2.7	2	0.82	1	27%	0
OTT T. Chabot	2.4	5	0.46	1	9%	1
OTT D. Batherson	2.4	0	0.70	0	24%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	2.3	2	0.46	0	8%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.3	0	0.86	1	26%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.2	5	0.97	1	35%	1
WPG J. Morrissey	2.1	1	0.75	0	13%	0
OTT C. Giroux	2.0	1	0.66	0	23%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	2.0	3	0.74	1	31%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.9	3	0.44	0	21%	0
OTT D. Perron	1.9	1	0.47	0	19%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	1.8	1	0.56	1	19%	1
WPG N. Pionk	1.7	4	0.49	0	8%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.6	2	0.36	0	17%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.5	0	0.38	0	19%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.5	0	0.51	0	17%	0
WPG M. Appleton	1.4	3	0.33	1	13%	1
OTT A. Crookshank	1.4	3	0.22	0	11%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.4	3	0.30	0	5%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.4	1	0.39	0	16%	0
OTT M. Highmore	1.3	0	0.26	0	11%	0
OTT N. Gregor	1.3	0	0.18	0	10%	0
OTT A. Gaudette	1.2	3	0.28	0	15%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.2	0	0.23	0	5%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.2	2	0.28	0	12%	0
OTT N. Matinpalo	1.1	1	0.04	0	2%	0
OTT T. Hamonic	1.1	5	0.12	0	3%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	1.0	1	0.30	1	5%	0
WPG R. Kupari	1.0	1	0.17	0	8%	0
OTT N. Jensen	1.0	1	0.21	0	4%	0
WPG C. Miller	1.0	3	0.19	0	4%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.0	0	0.09	0	3%	0
OTT J. Jenik	1.0	0	0.17	0	8%	0
WPG L. Stanley	0.9	1	0.18	0	3%	0
WPG D. Gustafsson	0.8	3	0.16	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 14 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.