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Game Recap
WPG5
PHI2
WPG beat PHI 5-2 despite fewer good chances: 1.56 expected goals to 2.18. M. Scheifele led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). C. Hellebuyck stopped 15 of 17.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| PHI | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 5:45WPGV. Namestnikov0.05 xG
- 2nd 7:01WPGM. Scheifele0.06 xG
- 2nd 16:22PHIO. Tippett0.08 xG
- 2nd 17:43WPGM. Barron0.14 xG
- 3rd 9:40WPGM. ScheifelePP0.14 xG
- 3rd 17:39PHIM. Michkov0.13 xG
- 3rd 18:47WPGT. PearsonEN0.34 xG
Team Stats
WPGPHI
15Shots on goal17
1.56Expected goals2.18
38Shot attempts36
115v5 shots on goal12
1/1Power play0/3
17Hits15
9Blocked shots16
8Penalty minutes2
14Giveaways16
3Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WPG 1.56 xGPHI 2.18 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Connor | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:47 | 0:24 |
| M. Scheifele | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:44 | 0:24 |
| G. Vilardi | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:46 | 0:24 |
| N. Niederreiter | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:50 | 0:00 |
| V. Namestnikov | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:20 | 0:00 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:05 | 0:00 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:03 | 0:24 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:03 | 0:00 |
| M. Barron | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:18 | 0:00 |
| J. Toews | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 15:45 | 0:00 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:27 | 0:00 |
| P. Ford | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:55 | 0:00 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 24:21 | 0:24 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +4 | 2 | 23:17 | 0:00 |
| N. Pionk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 22:26 | 0:00 |
| L. Stanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:03 | 0:00 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:51 | 0:00 |
| H. Fleury | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:59 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Hellebuyck | 17 | 15 | 2 | .882 | 60:00 | Win |
| E. Comrie | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:51 | 2:50 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:48 | 2:48 |
| T. Zegras | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 17:29 | 2:46 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:20 | 3:11 |
| T. Konecny | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:12 | 2:41 |
| B. Brink | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:38 | 2:54 |
| T. Foerster | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:09 | 3:14 |
| N. Cates | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:18 | 3:01 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:16 | 0:00 |
| N. Grebenkin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 11:37 | 0:00 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 10:40 | 0:00 |
| J. Luchanko | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:40 | 0:00 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 24:35 | 3:12 |
| N. Juulsen | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:00 | 0:00 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 24:08 | 2:52 |
| C. York | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:32 | 0:31 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 20:05 | 0:00 |
| A. Ginning | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:20 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
WPG
Line 1K. Connor16:41M. Scheifele16:46G. Vilardi16:22
Line 2G. Nyquist13:03N. Niederreiter14:50V. Namestnikov11:42
Line 3J. Toews14:49A. Iafallo11:54T. Pearson12:07
Pair 1D. DeMelo20:08J. Morrissey21:09
Pair 2L. Stanley19:03N. Pionk19:31
PHI
Line 1T. Konecny14:29M. Michkov14:58S. Couturier15:35
Line 2B. Brink14:44T. Foerster12:55N. Cates12:17
Line 3T. Zegras14:41C. Dvorak12:52O. Tippett12:07
Line 4N. Grebenkin11:37J. Luchanko10:40G. Hathaway10:40
Pair 1T. Sanheim20:03C. York20:41
Pair 2N. Seeler20:05J. Drysdale21:16
Pair 3N. Juulsen10:54A. Ginning12:16
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WPG 3.3, PHI 2.5 | WPG 5, PHI 2 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | WPG 26.4, PHI 25.3 | WPG 15, PHI 17 |
| Win chance | WPG 63% | WPG won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG K. Connor | 3.1 | 0 | 1.13 | 2 | 38% | 0 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 2.4 | 2 | 0.69 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| PHI O. Tippett | 2.3 | 2 | 0.48 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 2.2 | 0 | 0.56 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 2.1 | 3 | 0.72 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 2.0 | 3 | 0.99 | 2 | 34% | 2 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 1.9 | 0 | 0.78 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| PHI T. Foerster | 1.9 | 3 | 0.51 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 1.8 | 1 | 0.75 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WPG N. Pionk | 1.7 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PHI T. Zegras | 1.7 | 1 | 0.58 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 1.7 | 2 | 0.45 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.7 | 0 | 0.41 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| WPG J. Toews | 1.5 | 0 | 0.55 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.5 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.5 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.4 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.4 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| PHI C. Dvorak | 1.3 | 3 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| WPG M. Barron | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.2 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WPG V. Namestnikov | 1.2 | 2 | 0.50 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| WPG T. Pearson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 1.0 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PHI C. York | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WPG G. Nyquist | 1.0 | 0 | 0.42 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WPG L. Schenn | 0.9 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG C. Koepke | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WPG H. Fleury | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| PHI J. Luchanko | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WPG L. Stanley | 0.7 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PHI A. Ginning | 0.7 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PHI N. Juulsen | 0.6 | 0 | 0.07 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
| PHI N. Grebenkin | 0.5 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.