WPG beat PIT 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.63 expected goals to 1.87. WPG outshot PIT 30 to 18. K. Connor led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). C. Hellebuyck stopped 17 of 18.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
- 1st 1:22WPGN. Niederreiter0.36 xG
- 2nd 4:53WPGV. Namestnikov0.05 xG
- 2nd 19:01WPGG. VilardiPP0.13 xG
- 3rd 5:49PITM. BuntingPP0.18 xG
- 3rd 18:49WPGK. ConnorEN0.96 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WPG 4.63 xGPIT 1.87 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Connor | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 5 | 17:33 | 1:26 |
| M. Scheifele | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:53 | 2:29 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 17:19 | 1:51 |
| G. Vilardi | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:37 | 2:13 |
| V. Namestnikov | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:06 | 1:48 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:16 | 2:04 |
| N. Niederreiter | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:41 | 2:04 |
| A. Lowry | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 13:56 | 0:00 |
| M. Appleton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:37 | 0:01 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:04 | 2:09 |
| M. Barron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:47 | 0:00 |
| R. Kupari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:58 | 0:00 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:01 | 2:09 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 24:28 | 0:00 |
| D. Samberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 21:22 | 0:04 |
| N. Pionk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 20:35 | 2:07 |
| C. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:06 | 0:55 |
| H. Fleury | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:21 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Hellebuyck | 18 | 17 | 1 | .944 | 60:00 | Win |
| E. Comrie | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Rust | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 20:24 | 3:47 |
| E. Malkin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 17:50 | 3:59 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:02 | 2:41 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:29 | 3:48 |
| S. Crosby | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 7 | 18:36 | 3:13 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:18 | 0:00 |
| M. Nieto | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:38 | 0:00 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:33 | 0:00 |
| J. Puljujarvi | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:20 | 1:32 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:21 | 0:47 |
| S. Poulin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:32 | 0:00 |
| V. Ponomarev | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:20 | 0:00 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 23:06 | 4:05 |
| K. Letang | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:46 | 1:33 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:45 | 1:15 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 19:07 | 0:00 |
| R. Shea | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:35 | 0:00 |
| O. Pickering | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:59 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Jarry | 29 | 26 | 3 | .897 | 59:03 | Loss |
| A. Nedeljkovic | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WPG 3.3, PIT 2.9 | WPG 4, PIT 1 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | WPG 30.6, PIT 32.5 | WPG 30, PIT 18 |
| Win chance | WPG 56% | WPG won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG K. Connor | 3.2 | 3 | 0.98 | 2 | 36% | 1 |
| PIT S. Crosby | 3.2 | 0 | 1.02 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| WPG N. Ehlers | 2.8 | 2 | 0.86 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| PIT B. Rust | 2.8 | 1 | 0.68 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.7 | 2 | 0.63 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.5 | 1 | 0.66 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 2.4 | 1 | 0.82 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 2.2 | 4 | 0.91 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 2.2 | 1 | 0.75 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| PIT K. Letang | 2.1 | 0 | 0.50 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 2.1 | 1 | 0.95 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| PIT D. O'Connor | 2.0 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| PIT A. Beauvillier | 1.9 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 1.9 | 2 | 0.46 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 1.8 | 3 | 0.56 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| PIT M. Bunting | 1.8 | 2 | 0.48 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| PIT J. Puljujarvi | 1.7 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WPG N. Pionk | 1.6 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WPG M. Appleton | 1.4 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WPG A. Lowry | 1.3 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 1.3 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT M. Pettersson | 1.3 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG V. Namestnikov | 1.3 | 3 | 0.48 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| WPG D. Samberg | 1.2 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT M. Nieto | 1.2 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WPG C. Miller | 1.2 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WPG M. Barron | 1.1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WPG H. Fleury | 1.1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| PIT M. Grzelcyk | 1.1 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 1.0 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.0 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WPG R. Kupari | 1.0 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PIT S. Poulin | 0.7 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PIT R. Shea | 0.6 | 0 | 0.07 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.