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Game Recap
WPG0
STL1
STL beat WPG 1-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.59 expected goals to 2.02. P. Suter had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. J. Hofer stopped 24 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| STL | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
- 2nd 13:17STLJ. Faulk0.12 xG
Team Stats
WPGSTL
24Shots on goal26
2.02Expected goals3.59
60Shot attempts49
195v5 shots on goal20
0/2Power play0/4
21Hits14
9Blocked shots14
20Penalty minutes6
19Giveaways11
3Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WPG 2.02 xGSTL 3.59 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 24:27 | 2:13 |
| M. Scheifele | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:53 | 2:13 |
| G. Vilardi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:01 | 2:10 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:11 | 0:00 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:24 | 1:47 |
| A. Lowry | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:43 | 0:00 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:27 | 1:59 |
| M. Barron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:23 | 0:00 |
| V. Namestnikov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:07 | 1:47 |
| N. Niederreiter | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:59 | 1:50 |
| J. Toews | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:26 | 1:58 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:03 | 0:00 |
| N. Pionk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:45 | 1:56 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 22:37 | 2:04 |
| D. Samberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:41 | 0:00 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 18:54 | 0:03 |
| L. Stanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 16:57 | 0:00 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:37 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Hellebuyck | 26 | 25 | 1 | .962 | 59:43 | Loss |
| E. Comrie | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Thomas | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:20 | 4:24 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:14 | 4:17 |
| P. Suter | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 17:29 | 2:31 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:15 | 3:04 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:25 | 2:26 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:23 | 3:20 |
| D. Dvorsky | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:02 | 2:32 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13:45 | 0:00 |
| O. Stenberg | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:38 | 0:00 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:45 | 0:00 |
| R. Fabbri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:26 | 0:00 |
| M. Joseph | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:33 | 0:00 |
| J. Faulk | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 21:40 | 3:00 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 25:02 | 1:45 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:06 | 1:14 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20:20 | 3:40 |
| M. Kessel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:03 | 0:00 |
| L. Mailloux | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:34 | 1:17 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Hofer | 24 | 24 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Binnington | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
WPG
Line 1M. Scheifele19:01K. Connor19:21G. Vilardi14:09
Line 2N. Niederreiter10:09V. Namestnikov10:20C. Perfetti10:11
Line 3M. Barron10:36A. Lowry10:25A. Iafallo14:46
Line 4J. Toews9:28G. Nyquist9:28C. Koepke9:26
Pair 1D. DeMelo17:38J. Morrissey19:57
Pair 2D. Samberg18:00N. Pionk16:31
Pair 3L. Schenn10:42L. Stanley15:37
STL
Line 1P. Buchnevich14:20R. Thomas15:53R. Fabbri10:26
Line 2B. Schenn12:58J. Neighbours13:11O. Stenberg12:38
Line 3J. Berggren12:45P. Suter13:39D. Dvorsky11:30
Line 4O. Sundqvist9:30A. Toropchenko11:35M. Joseph7:51
Pair 1C. Parayko18:22P. Broberg20:38
Pair 2C. Fowler15:59L. Mailloux13:16
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WPG 2.9, STL 2.7 | WPG 0, STL 1 |
| Total goals | 5.5 | 1 |
| Shots on goal | WPG 26.2, STL 25.5 | WPG 24, STL 26 |
| Win chance | WPG 53% | STL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG K. Connor | 3.1 | 3 | 1.07 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 2.1 | 0 | 1.01 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 1.9 | 2 | 0.76 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 1.9 | 1 | 0.75 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WPG N. Pionk | 1.8 | 4 | 0.40 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 1.7 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 1.7 | 1 | 0.67 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 1.7 | 1 | 0.43 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| STL P. Suter | 1.6 | 6 | 0.46 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.6 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.6 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL R. Thomas | 1.6 | 1 | 0.87 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| WPG M. Barron | 1.5 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 1.5 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.4 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.4 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| STL D. Dvorsky | 1.4 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.3 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.3 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WPG D. Samberg | 1.3 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| STL R. Fabbri | 1.3 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| STL L. Mailloux | 1.3 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WPG J. Toews | 1.2 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WPG V. Namestnikov | 1.2 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WPG C. Koepke | 1.2 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WPG A. Lowry | 1.2 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WPG G. Nyquist | 1.2 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| STL M. Joseph | 1.1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL J. Berggren | 1.0 | 3 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 0.9 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG L. Stanley | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 0.8 | 4 | 0.31 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WPG L. Schenn | 0.8 | 3 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| STL M. Kessel | 0.6 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.