Game Recap: WPG 3, STL 2, April 9, 2026

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

WPG3

FinalThu, Apr 9, 2026Every game that night

STL2

WPG beat STL 3-2, with the chances close: 2.68 expected goals to 2.38. WPG outshot STL 34 to 22. D. Holloway led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). N. Pionk had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. C. Hellebuyck stopped 20 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WPG	1	2	0	3
STL	1	0	1	2

1st 4:56STLD. HollowayPP0.12 xG
1st 9:24WPGA. Iafallo0.11 xG
2nd 14:11WPGJ. Morrissey0.29 xG
2nd 15:51WPGJ. Toews0.15 xG
3rd 13:00STLC. Parayko0.15 xG

Team Stats

WPGSTL

34Shots on goal22

2.68Expected goals2.38

55Shot attempts47

275v5 shots on goal18

0/1Power play1/5

14Hits19

13Blocked shots10

8Penalty minutes2

10Giveaways14

2Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 2.68 xGSTL 2.38 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG33 on goal, 3 scored

STL22 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Scheifele	C	0	2	2	1	0	1	+1	0	20:21	1:28
A. Iafallo	LW	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	0	19:28	0:21
C. Perfetti	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	13:47	0:32
J. Toews	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	10:20	0:56
K. Connor	LW	0	0	0	6	0	0	+1	0	20:56	1:28
A. Lowry	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	16:47	0:00
G. Vilardi	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+2	0	16:31	0:54
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	12:27	0:32
C. Koepke	LW	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	11:46	0:00
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:35	0:43
B. Lambert	C	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	0	10:31	0:45
I. Rosen	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	7:49	0:00
J. Morrissey	D	1	0	1	4	1	1	+2	2	22:16	1:18
H. Fleury	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	2	11:37	0:00
J. Bryson	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	+2	0	11:14	0:00
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	26:52	0:00
N. Pionk	D	0	0	0	5	3	2	0	2	24:04	1:03
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	23:10	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	22	20	2	.909	60:00	Win
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Holloway	LW	1	1	2	2	1	0	0	0	18:03	5:01
R. Thomas	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	17:41	5:02
J. Kyrou	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	2	17:06	3:24
D. Dvorsky	RW	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	19:37	3:30
J. Berggren	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	17:06	3:24
J. Snuggerud	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	17:01	5:02
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16:59	3:43
O. Stenberg	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	15:57	0:00
J. Neighbours	LW	0	0	0	4	3	0	-1	0	15:51	4:44
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	10:56	0:00
N. Walker	LW	0	0	0	2	4	0	-1	0	10:43	0:00
J. Finley	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	0	10:09	0:05
P. Broberg	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	-2	0	22:32	5:24
C. Parayko	D	1	0	1	1	0	1	+1	0	19:24	0:00
L. Mailloux	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	20:13	3:13
T. Lindstein	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	18:45	0:01
C. Fowler	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	16:47	0:45
T. Tucker	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	-1	0	14:37	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Binnington	34	31	3	.912	58:33	Loss
J. Hofer	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WPG

Line 1M. Scheifele17:18K. Connor16:46A. Iafallo14:39

Line 2G. Vilardi15:37C. Perfetti13:15A. Lowry13:12

Line 3N. Niederreiter10:52V. Namestnikov9:51B. Lambert9:46

Line 4C. Koepke7:47I. Rosen7:49J. Toews9:24

Pair 1D. Samberg21:55N. Pionk19:02

Pair 2D. DeMelo20:04J. Morrissey18:06

Pair 3J. Bryson11:14H. Fleury8:08

STL

Line 1O. Stenberg15:04D. Dvorsky16:07J. Kyrou13:42

Line 2N. Walker10:15A. Toropchenko10:04J. Finley9:15

Line 3R. Thomas11:50J. Snuggerud11:25D. Holloway12:22

Line 4P. Buchnevich12:39J. Berggren13:42J. Neighbours10:34

Pair 1C. Parayko18:48T. Lindstein17:36

Pair 2P. Broberg15:44L. Mailloux16:07

Pair 3C. Fowler15:28T. Tucker14:03

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownAdam Lowry WPG Plays in his hometown1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WPG 2.9, STL 2.9	WPG 3, STL 2
Total goals	5.7	5
Shots on goal	WPG 25.4, STL 25.6	WPG 34, STL 22
Win chance	STL 51%	WPG won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.0	6	1.06	0	37%	0
STL D. Holloway	2.8	2	0.87	2	28%	1
STL J. Snuggerud	2.5	2	0.75	0	23%	0
STL J. Kyrou	2.1	1	0.60	1	25%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	2.1	2	0.58	1	21%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.1	1	1.06	2	34%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	1.9	4	0.71	1	14%	1
WPG N. Pionk	1.8	5	0.38	0	7%	0
STL R. Thomas	1.7	1	1.03	1	26%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	1.7	1	0.71	0	29%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	1.6	0	0.61	0	21%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.5	1	0.33	1	9%	1
STL L. Mailloux	1.5	0	0.29	0	9%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.5	3	0.37	1	17%	1
WPG D. Samberg	1.4	0	0.27	0	4%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.3	1	0.50	1	11%	0
WPG C. Koepke	1.3	1	0.23	0	12%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.3	0	0.31	0	16%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.2	4	0.52	0	21%	0
STL J. Berggren	1.2	2	0.40	0	17%	0
STL D. Dvorsky	1.1	0	0.26	0	13%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.1	1	0.34	0	15%	0
WPG J. Toews	1.1	2	0.33	1	13%	1
STL C. Fowler	1.0	0	0.40	0	7%	0
STL T. Lindstein	1.0	2	0.22	0	5%	0
WPG B. Lambert	1.0	2	0.30	0	12%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	1.0	1	0.25	0	4%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.0	1	0.18	0	8%	0
STL O. Stenberg	0.9	2	0.29	0	10%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	0.9	3	0.27	0	11%	0
STL T. Tucker	0.9	1	0.19	0	5%	0
WPG I. Rosen	0.8	1	0.20	0	10%	0
STL N. Walker	0.8	2	0.23	0	10%	0
WPG H. Fleury	0.7	0	0.11	1	2%	0
STL J. Finley	0.6	0	0.15	0	8%	0
WPG J. Bryson	0.4	1	0.13	1	2%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.