Game Recap: WPG 1, STL 2, October 20, 2026

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

WPG1

FinalTue, Oct 20, 2026Every game that night

STL2

STL beat WPG 2-1, with the chances close: 2.94 expected goals to 2.20. P. Broberg led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). P. Broberg had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. J. Hofer stopped 32 of 33.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WPG	0	0	1	1
STL	1	0	1	2

1st 12:30STLJ. Snuggerud0.08 xG
3rd 0:32WPGC. Perfetti0.16 xG
3rd 8:47STLP. BrobergPP0.11 xG

Team Stats

WPGSTL

33Shots on goal28

2.20Expected goals2.94

62Shot attempts50

265v5 shots on goal21

0/3Power play1/5

24Hits16

9Blocked shots12

10Penalty minutes6

11Giveaways14

4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 2.20 xGSTL 2.94 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG31 on goal, 1 scored

STL26 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Perfetti	C	1	0	1	5	2	0	+1	0	19:47	3:05
G. Vilardi	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	17:49	3:28
K. Connor	LW	0	0	0	4	0	0	+1	0	21:43	2:45
M. Scheifele	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	20:56	3:06
A. Lowry	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	14:50	0:04
V. Björck	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:36	1:11
I. Rosen	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:33	1:11
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	5	2	0	0	0	13:03	0:53
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	13:01	0:00
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	12:02	0:55
C. Koepke	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	2	9:45	0:23
B. Lambert	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	6:48	0:01
N. Pionk	D	0	0	0	3	2	1	+1	0	26:50	3:23
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	4	22:32	0:07
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	1	2	4	-1	0	20:19	0:00
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	19:42	0:00
H. Fleury	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	2	17:53	1:23
T. Bauer	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	2	8:26	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	28	26	2	.929	58:03	Loss
C. Stevenson	0	0	0	–	0:00

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Thomas	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	20:52	4:03
J. Snuggerud	RW	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	4	19:37	4:01
D. Holloway	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	17:25	4:00
J. Neighbours	LW	0	1	1	4	4	1	0	0	16:30	3:55
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	0	0	4	0	1	-1	0	19:36	2:47
M. McTavish	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:40	2:29
C. McMichael	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:35	2:41
P. Suter	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	14:13	0:14
A. Kaskimaki	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:57	0:00
J. Berggren	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	11:56	1:36
D. Dvorsky	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:08	0:52
O. Stenberg	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	9:08	0:00
P. Broberg	D	1	1	2	6	0	1	0	0	23:41	3:55
C. Parayko	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	-1	2	21:42	0:10
C. Fowler	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	21:04	2:40
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	17:55	0:00
J. Barron	D	0	0	0	2	3	1	+1	0	17:34	0:22
A. Jiricek	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	11:50	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Hofer	33	32	1	.970	59:37	Win
J. Binnington	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WPG

Line 1M. Scheifele15:01K. Connor14:56C. Perfetti14:45

Line 2N. Niederreiter11:07A. Lowry10:52I. Rosen11:31

Line 3V. Björck10:58G. Vilardi11:58A. Iafallo10:10

Line 4M. Barron9:48B. Lambert6:47C. Koepke6:48

Pair 1D. Samberg20:35N. Pionk18:14

Pair 2D. DeMelo15:00M. Ferraro15:13

Pair 3H. Fleury13:06T. Bauer8:26

STL

Line 1R. Thomas13:38J. Snuggerud13:52D. Holloway12:32

Line 2P. Buchnevich12:31J. Neighbours11:42D. Dvorsky9:16

Line 3M. McTavish11:21C. McMichael10:40J. Berggren10:20

Line 4P. Suter10:49A. Kaskimaki10:19O. Stenberg8:00

Pair 1C. Fowler14:13B. Carlo14:31

Pair 2P. Broberg15:44J. Barron16:26

Pair 3C. Parayko18:23A. Jiricek10:58

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 14 overs hit (57%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
WPG K. Connor	3.5	+130	-150	4	Over
WPG C. Perfetti	2.5	+148	-170	5	Over
STL D. Holloway	2.5	+120	-135	1	Under
STL J. Snuggerud	2.5	+110	-125	2	Under
STL M. McTavish	2.5	+110	-125	0	Under
WPG A. Iafallo	1.5	+140	-175	5	Over
STL C. McMichael	1.5	-114	+100	1	Under
STL D. Dvorsky	1.5	+105	-140	1	Under
WPG G. Vilardi	1.5	-113	-110	2	Over
WPG M. Scheifele	1.5	-148	+125	2	Over
WPG N. Pionk	1.5	-135	+105	3	Over
STL P. Broberg	1.5	+130	-180	6	Over
STL P. Buchnevich	1.5	+104	-120	4	Over
STL R. Thomas	1.5	+100	-120	0	Under

3 of 34 overs hit (9%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
WPG A. Iafallo	0.5	+500	-750	0	Under
STL A. Jiricek	0.5	+1200	-3500	0	Under
STL A. Kaskimaki	0.5	+1100	-1400	0	Under
WPG A. Lowry	0.5	+650	-1400	0	Under
STL B. Carlo	0.5	+2500	-4000	0	Under
WPG B. Lambert	0.5	+1000	-2000	0	Under
STL C. Fowler	0.5	+1300	-2500	0	Under
WPG C. Koepke	0.5	+900	-1200	0	Under
STL C. McMichael	0.5	+320	-390	0	Under
STL C. Parayko	0.5	+1400	-2000	0	Under
WPG C. Perfetti	0.5	+240	-300	1	Over
WPG D. DeMelo	0.5	+2300	-4000	0	Under
STL D. Dvorsky	0.5	+425	-750	0	Under
STL D. Holloway	0.5	+220	-250	0	Under
WPG D. Samberg	0.5	+2000	-3500	0	Under
WPG G. Vilardi	0.5	+290	-420	0	Under
WPG H. Fleury	0.5	+1300	-3500	0	Under
WPG I. Rosen	0.5	+650	-1000	0	Under
STL J. Berggren	0.5	+450	-650	0	Under
STL J. Neighbours	0.5	+333	-550	0	Under
STL J. Snuggerud	0.5	+230	-270	1	Over
WPG K. Connor	0.5	+150	-170	0	Under
WPG M. Barron	0.5	+900	-2500	0	Under
WPG M. Ferraro	0.5	+2000	-3500	0	Under
STL M. McTavish	0.5	+230	-310	0	Under
WPG M. Scheifele	0.5	+240	-340	0	Under
WPG N. Niederreiter	0.5	+625	-900	0	Under
WPG N. Pionk	0.5	+775	-1400	0	Under
STL O. Stenberg	0.5	+800	-1000	0	Under
STL P. Broberg	0.5	+800	-1600	1	Over
STL P. Buchnevich	0.5	+370	-475	0	Under
STL P. Suter	0.5	+550	-800	0	Under
STL R. Thomas	0.5	+290	-420	0	Under
WPG T. Bauer	0.5	+2900	-4000	0	Under

5 of 33 overs hit (15%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
WPG A. Iafallo	0.5	+360	-525	0	Under
STL A. Jiricek	0.5	+320	-475	0	Under
STL A. Kaskimaki	0.5	+650	–	0	Under
WPG A. Lowry	0.5	+285	-425	0	Under
STL B. Carlo	0.5	+600	–	0	Under
WPG B. Lambert	0.5	+650	–	0	Under
STL C. Fowler	0.5	+205	-235	0	Under
WPG C. Koepke	0.5	+600	–	0	Under
STL C. McMichael	0.5	+210	-285	0	Under
STL C. Parayko	0.5	+340	-375	0	Under
WPG C. Perfetti	0.5	+200	-235	0	Under
WPG D. DeMelo	0.5	+290	-425	0	Under
STL D. Dvorsky	0.5	+440	-450	0	Under
STL D. Holloway	0.5	+135	-165	1	Over
WPG D. Samberg	0.5	+330	-475	0	Under
WPG G. Vilardi	0.5	+176	-215	1	Over
WPG H. Fleury	0.5	+360	–	0	Under
WPG I. Rosen	0.5	+390	–	0	Under
STL J. Berggren	0.5	+245	-340	0	Under
STL J. Neighbours	0.5	+270	-350	1	Over
STL J. Snuggerud	0.5	+182	-225	0	Under
WPG K. Connor	0.5	+120	-160	0	Under
WPG M. Barron	0.5	+400	–	0	Under
WPG M. Ferraro	0.5	+500	–	0	Under
STL M. McTavish	0.5	+175	-220	0	Under
WPG M. Scheifele	0.5	-110	-120	0	Under
WPG N. Niederreiter	0.5	+340	–	0	Under
WPG N. Pionk	0.5	+160	-165	0	Under
STL P. Broberg	0.5	+196	-220	1	Over
STL P. Buchnevich	0.5	+215	-230	0	Under
STL P. Suter	0.5	+370	–	0	Under
STL R. Thomas	0.5	-105	-110	1	Over
WPG T. Bauer	0.5	+500	–	0	Under

7 of 34 overs hit (21%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
WPG A. Iafallo	0.5	+190	-230	0	Under
STL A. Jiricek	0.5	+245	-340	0	Under
STL A. Kaskimaki	0.5	+400	-600	0	Under
WPG A. Lowry	0.5	+190	-240	0	Under
STL B. Carlo	0.5	+500	–	0	Under
WPG B. Lambert	0.5	+390	–	0	Under
STL C. Fowler	0.5	+170	-190	0	Under
WPG C. Koepke	0.5	+320	–	0	Under
STL C. McMichael	0.5	+110	-132	0	Under
STL C. Parayko	0.5	+255	-275	0	Under
WPG C. Perfetti	0.5	-110	-110	1	Over
WPG D. DeMelo	0.5	+255	-360	0	Under
STL D. Dvorsky	0.5	+180	-200	0	Under
STL D. Holloway	0.5	-160	+130	1	Over
WPG D. Samberg	0.5	+285	-400	0	Under
WPG G. Vilardi	0.5	-105	-110	1	Over
WPG H. Fleury	0.5	+280	–	0	Under
WPG I. Rosen	0.5	+220	–	0	Under
STL J. Berggren	0.5	+160	-195	0	Under
STL J. Neighbours	0.5	+135	-165	1	Over
STL J. Snuggerud	0.5	-125	+105	1	Over
WPG K. Connor	0.5	-190	+165	0	Under
WPG M. Barron	0.5	+230	–	0	Under
WPG M. Ferraro	0.5	+370	–	0	Under
STL M. McTavish	0.5	-110	+100	0	Under
WPG M. Scheifele	0.5	-170	+145	0	Under
WPG N. Niederreiter	0.5	+190	-235	0	Under
WPG N. Pionk	0.5	+125	-130	0	Under
STL O. Stenberg	0.5	+175	-250	0	Under
STL P. Broberg	0.5	+145	-180	2	Over
STL P. Buchnevich	0.5	+115	-125	0	Under
STL P. Suter	0.5	+210	-220	0	Under
STL R. Thomas	0.5	-170	+145	1	Over
WPG T. Bauer	0.5	+400	–	0	Under

3 of 15 overs hit (20%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
STL C. Fowler	0.5	+380	-900	0	Under
STL C. McMichael	0.5	+360	-800	0	Under
WPG C. Perfetti	0.5	+300	-400	0	Under
STL D. Holloway	0.5	+240	-350	0	Under
WPG G. Vilardi	0.5	+300	-450	0	Under
STL J. Berggren	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
STL J. Neighbours	0.5	+400	-1100	1	Over
STL J. Snuggerud	0.5	+380	-500	0	Under
WPG K. Connor	0.5	+225	-275	0	Under
STL M. McTavish	0.5	+360	-600	0	Under
WPG M. Scheifele	0.5	+235	-325	0	Under
WPG N. Pionk	0.5	+260	-450	0	Under
STL P. Broberg	0.5	+340	-750	1	Over
STL P. Buchnevich	0.5	+380	-900	0	Under
STL R. Thomas	0.5	+310	-350	1	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
STL J. Hofer	23.5	-105	-125	32	Over
WPG S. Skinner	23.5	-105	-118	26	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
STL C. Parayko	1.5	-175	–	3	Over
WPG D. Samberg	1.5	-140	–	1	Under
WPG M. Ferraro	1.5	-115	–	0	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownAdam Lowry WPG Plays in his hometown0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WPG 2.7, STL 3.2	WPG 1, STL 2
Total goals	5.9	3
Shots on goal	WPG 25.3, STL 26.5	WPG 33, STL 28
Win chance	STL 57%	STL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.1	4	1.01	0	36%	0
STL D. Holloway	2.6	1	0.90	1	28%	0
STL J. Snuggerud	2.5	2	0.82	1	27%	1
STL M. McTavish	2.3	0	0.65	0	22%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	2.1	5	0.62	1	23%	1
WPG N. Pionk	1.9	3	0.47	0	9%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	1.9	2	1.01	0	32%	0
STL R. Thomas	1.7	0	1.10	1	29%	0
STL C. McMichael	1.7	1	0.65	0	22%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	1.6	2	0.68	1	26%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	1.5	4	0.66	0	23%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.5	1	0.37	0	10%	0
STL A. Jiricek	1.4	1	0.22	0	6%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.4	5	0.37	0	16%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.4	3	0.26	0	5%	0
STL D. Dvorsky	1.3	1	0.33	0	15%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.3	1	0.30	0	15%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.3	6	0.47	2	10%	1
STL J. Berggren	1.3	2	0.48	0	19%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.3	4	0.56	1	22%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.2	1	0.27	0	12%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.2	0	0.55	0	9%	0
WPG V. Björck	1.2	0	0.29	0	14%	0
STL J. Barron	1.2	2	0.29	0	8%	0
STL P. Suter	1.2	0	0.39	0	16%	0
WPG I. Rosen	1.2	0	0.24	0	12%	0
WPG C. Koepke	1.1	1	0.20	0	10%	0
STL A. Kaskimaki	1.1	0	0.17	0	8%	0
WPG M. Ferraro	1.1	3	0.24	0	5%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.1	0	0.35	0	15%	0
STL O. Stenberg	1.0	1	0.32	0	12%	0
STL B. Carlo	0.9	2	0.15	0	4%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	0.9	1	0.25	0	4%	0
WPG H. Fleury	0.9	1	0.15	0	3%	0
WPG B. Lambert	0.7	0	0.18	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.