Game Recap: WPG 1, TBL 4, November 14, 2024

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Game Recap

WPG1

FinalThu, Nov 14, 2024Every game that night

TBL4

TBL beat WPG 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.68 expected goals to 1.78. J. Guentzel led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). B. Hagel had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 23 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WPG	0	1	0	1
TBL	1	2	1	4

1st 7:24TBLJ. Guentzel0.07 xG
2nd 3:10TBLB. Hagel0.14 xG
2nd 4:07TBLA. CirelliPP0.13 xG
2nd 6:54WPGA. Lowry0.05 xG
3rd 19:39TBLJ. GuentzelEN0.94 xG

Team Stats

WPGTBL

24Shots on goal29

1.78Expected goals3.68

61Shot attempts57

205v5 shots on goal24

0/5Power play1/3

25Hits16

10Blocked shots19

6Penalty minutes8

23Giveaways12

9Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 1.78 xGTBL 3.68 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG24 on goal, 1 scored

TBL29 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Lowry	C	1	0	1	2	4	1	+1	0	14:15	0:03
M. Scheifele	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	22:36	5:18
K. Connor	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	22:05	5:21
G. Vilardi	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	21:01	5:18
N. Ehlers	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	0	18:36	5:10
C. Perfetti	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	2	15:45	2:38
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	0	0	3	1	2	+1	2	15:26	2:39
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	15:02	2:39
M. Appleton	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	+1	0	14:10	0:03
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:35	2:47
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	9:16	0:05
R. Kupari	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	6:48	0:02
H. Fleury	D	0	1	1	2	1	2	-1	0	11:31	0:02
C. Miller	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	10:39	0:02
J. Morrissey	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	26:50	5:29
N. Pionk	D	0	0	0	0	5	1	-1	0	22:42	2:31
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	2	20:26	0:00
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	19:56	0:03

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Comrie	28	25	3	.893	57:58	Loss
C. Hellebuyck	0	0	0	–	0:00

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Guentzel	C	2	0	2	2	0	2	+2	2	20:31	3:06
A. Cirelli	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	+2	0	22:49	3:01
N. Kucherov	RW	0	1	1	5	0	1	+1	0	22:47	3:54
B. Hagel	LW	1	0	1	5	1	0	+1	0	22:08	2:55
N. Paul	LW	0	1	1	3	2	1	+1	0	16:30	1:22
M. Chaffee	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	14:26	1:17
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	13:21	0:00
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	12:27	0:00
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	11:01	0:29
C. Geekie	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	10:00	1:25
M. Eyssimont	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	4	9:52	0:00
R. McDonagh	D	0	1	1	0	0	3	+2	0	21:36	0:00
V. Hedman	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	-1	0	21:28	2:58
E. Cernak	D	0	1	1	0	2	3	+2	2	19:38	0:00
E. Lilleberg	D	0	1	1	1	3	0	+1	0	13:03	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	11:50	1:28
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	15:51	0:00
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:40	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	24	23	1	.958	60:00	Win
J. Johansson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamVladislav Namestnikov WPG Faces TBL, his team until Feb 20232 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WPG 3.3, TBL 3.1	WPG 1, TBL 4
Total goals	6.4	5
Shots on goal	WPG 29.0, TBL 29.5	WPG 24, TBL 29
Win chance	WPG 52%	TBL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TBL N. Kucherov	3.5	5	1.49	1	36%	0
TBL J. Guentzel	3.3	2	0.96	2	35%	2
WPG K. Connor	3.2	2	0.98	0	36%	0
WPG N. Ehlers	2.6	1	0.80	0	26%	0
TBL B. Hagel	2.4	5	0.88	1	30%	1
TBL V. Hedman	2.4	1	0.76	1	12%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	2.2	0	0.75	0	30%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.0	1	0.95	0	32%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	2.0	0	0.76	0	14%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	2.0	3	0.47	0	22%	0
TBL N. Paul	1.8	3	0.50	1	22%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	1.8	2	0.57	0	19%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.7	2	0.60	1	20%	1
WPG N. Pionk	1.6	0	0.48	0	8%	0
TBL M. Eyssimont	1.5	3	0.21	0	9%	0
WPG M. Appleton	1.4	2	0.40	0	14%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.3	2	0.43	1	15%	1
WPG D. Samberg	1.2	2	0.27	0	5%	0
TBL C. Geekie	1.2	1	0.24	0	12%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.2	2	0.46	0	15%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	1.2	0	0.30	1	3%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.1	0	0.21	0	10%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	1.1	1	0.27	1	5%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.1	1	0.31	0	7%	0
WPG H. Fleury	1.1	2	0.11	1	4%	0
WPG C. Miller	1.1	2	0.21	1	6%	0
TBL M. Chaffee	1.1	1	0.31	0	16%	0
TBL N. Perbix	1.0	0	0.26	0	4%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.0	1	0.29	0	12%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.0	0	0.16	0	9%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	1.0	2	0.32	0	5%	0
WPG R. Kupari	0.9	0	0.16	0	6%	0
TBL E. Cernak	0.8	0	0.17	1	2%	0
TBL L. Glendening	0.7	2	0.10	0	7%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.7	1	0.13	1	2%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.