Game Recap: WPG 1, TBL 4, January 29, 2026

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

WPG1

FinalThu, Jan 29, 2026Every game that night

TBL4

TBL beat WPG 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.49 expected goals to 1.89. TBL outshot WPG 37 to 24. D. Raddysh led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). E. Salomonsson had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 23 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WPG	0	1	0	1
TBL	1	2	1	4

1st 14:58TBLD. James0.13 xG
2nd 1:37TBLD. Raddysh0.05 xG
2nd 12:25WPGK. Connor0.04 xG
2nd 15:17TBLY. Gourde0.10 xG
3rd 18:52TBLN. KucherovEN0.92 xG

Team Stats

WPGTBL

24Shots on goal37

1.89Expected goals3.49

44Shot attempts59

215v5 shots on goal28

0/2Power play0/1

29Hits18

13Blocked shots9

4Penalty minutes6

15Giveaways17

3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 1.89 xGTBL 3.49 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG22 on goal, 1 scored

TBL35 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Connor	LW	1	0	1	5	0	0	-1	0	22:28	2:56
M. Scheifele	C	0	1	1	0	2	1	-1	0	21:20	3:02
G. Vilardi	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	20:06	2:58
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	15:55	0:53
J. Toews	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	15:29	2:59
C. Perfetti	C	0	0	0	3	2	2	-2	2	15:14	1:03
A. Lowry	C	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	14:25	0:00
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	13:25	1:00
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	13:00	0:59
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	11:39	0:00
C. Koepke	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	9:20	0:00
T. Pearson	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	9:09	0:00
D. Samberg	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	21:26	0:00
J. Morrissey	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	26:35	2:55
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	19:59	0:10
E. Salomonsson	D	0	0	0	6	3	1	-1	0	19:40	0:00
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-3	0	16:38	1:05
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	0	6	2	-2	0	11:48	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	36	33	3	.917	58:24	Loss
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
Y. Gourde	C	1	2	3	2	4	0	+2	0	18:40	0:00
Z. Girgensons	C	0	2	2	0	1	2	+1	0	16:51	0:00
N. Kucherov	RW	1	1	2	2	0	1	+2	0	15:22	2:00
D. James	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+2	0	11:30	0:00
B. Hagel	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	20:48	2:00
A. Cirelli	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	2	16:26	0:00
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	15:53	0:00
J. Guentzel	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+2	0	15:00	2:00
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:58	2:00
N. Paul	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	12:04	0:00
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	10:40	0:00
J. Finley	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	10:15	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	1	2	3	5	0	0	+3	0	23:43	2:00
J. Moser	D	0	1	1	3	0	0	+3	2	21:58	0:00
R. McDonagh	D	0	0	0	3	0	3	0	0	20:37	0:00
M. Crozier	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	18:43	0:00
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	2	3	2	0	0	17:52	0:00
D. Carlile	D	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	0	15:13	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	24	23	1	.958	59:27	Win
J. Johansson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WPG

Line 1K. Connor16:54M. Scheifele16:23G. Vilardi16:16

Line 2N. Niederreiter12:01A. Lowry13:12V. Namestnikov10:57

Line 3A. Iafallo13:03C. Perfetti12:48J. Toews10:55

Line 4T. Pearson8:33C. Koepke8:42M. Barron9:53

Pair 1D. DeMelo18:18J. Morrissey21:29

Pair 2D. Samberg19:34E. Salomonsson16:47

Pair 3L. Schenn10:31L. Stanley12:59

TBL

Line 1Y. Gourde15:55P. Holmberg15:11Z. Girgensons14:31

Line 2A. Cirelli12:54B. Hagel14:11N. Kucherov10:08

Line 3G. Goncalves10:40D. James11:17J. Guentzel12:27

Line 4O. Bjorkstrand10:58N. Paul11:02J. Finley10:15

Pair 1D. Raddysh19:57J. Moser19:17

Pair 2M. Crozier15:52D. Carlile13:31

Pair 3R. McDonagh16:54E. Cernak14:15

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WPG 2.7, TBL 3.3	WPG 1, TBL 4
Total goals	6.0	5
Shots on goal	WPG 23.8, TBL 27.4	WPG 24, TBL 37
Win chance	TBL 60%	TBL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	2.9	5	0.93	1	34%	1
TBL N. Kucherov	2.8	2	1.50	2	34%	1
TBL B. Hagel	2.7	1	1.05	0	33%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	2.5	5	0.84	3	16%	1
TBL J. Guentzel	2.5	1	0.99	0	35%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.0	0	0.89	1	32%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	1.8	1	0.61	0	13%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	1.7	0	0.63	0	26%	0
TBL O. Bjorkstrand	1.6	0	0.55	0	19%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.6	3	0.59	0	21%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	1.5	3	0.39	0	15%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.4	1	0.34	0	17%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.4	3	0.35	1	7%	0
TBL Y. Gourde	1.4	2	0.45	3	14%	1
TBL M. Crozier	1.4	1	0.26	0	4%	0
WPG J. Toews	1.3	0	0.38	0	15%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.3	0	0.35	0	16%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.3	2	0.24	0	11%	0
TBL P. Holmberg	1.3	2	0.33	0	13%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.3	1	0.21	1	4%	0
TBL N. Paul	1.2	3	0.33	0	15%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.2	0	0.22	2	11%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.1	3	0.31	0	15%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.1	1	0.32	0	13%	0
TBL D. James	1.1	3	0.32	1	12%	1
WPG L. Stanley	1.1	1	0.24	0	6%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	1.0	0	0.26	0	5%	0
WPG C. Koepke	1.0	0	0.19	0	10%	0
WPG T. Pearson	1.0	0	0.21	0	10%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	0.9	3	0.35	0	5%	0
WPG E. Salomonsson	0.9	6	0.10	0	4%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	0.9	1	0.34	0	12%	0
WPG L. Schenn	0.8	0	0.11	0	3%	0
TBL E. Cernak	0.8	2	0.19	0	3%	0
TBL D. Carlile	0.8	5	0.15	0	5%	0
TBL J. Finley	0.5	0	0.15	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 15 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.