Game Recap: WPG 4, TBL 6, October 29, 2026

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Game Recap

WPG4

FinalThu, Oct 29, 2026Every game that night

TBL6

TBL beat WPG 6-4, and the chances backed it up: 4.51 expected goals to 2.28. TBL outshot WPG 31 to 21. P. Holmberg led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). J. Guentzel had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 17 of 21.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WPG	1	0	3	4
TBL	1	4	1	6

1st 2:20TBLB. Point0.10 xG
1st 17:45WPGN. Pionk0.03 xG
2nd 9:43TBLC. Geekie0.19 xG
2nd 15:56TBLA. CirelliPP0.46 xG
2nd 18:07TBLJ. Carlson0.13 xG
2nd 19:03TBLB. Hagel0.20 xG
3rd 7:00WPGD. Samberg0.17 xG
3rd 8:50WPGN. Pionk0.20 xG
3rd 17:12WPGK. Connor0.05 xG
3rd 18:29TBLP. HolmbergEN0.33 xG

Team Stats

WPGTBL

21Shots on goal31

2.28Expected goals4.51

48Shot attempts60

165v5 shots on goal21

0/2Power play1/3

28Hits17

14Blocked shots10

6Penalty minutes4

10Giveaways16

2Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 2.28 xGTBL 4.51 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG21 on goal, 4 scored

TBL31 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Scheifele	C	0	3	3	0	0	1	+1	0	20:31	2:49
K. Connor	LW	1	1	2	3	0	0	-2	0	19:09	2:52
C. Perfetti	C	0	2	2	3	2	1	+2	0	17:26	2:50
D. Mercer	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	-1	0	14:33	0:55
G. Vilardi	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	19:08	2:53
A. Lowry	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	17:01	0:13
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	15:42	0:13
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	0	13:40	0:13
V. Björck	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	4	12:28	0:57
I. Rosen	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	11:53	0:54
B. Lambert	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:58	0:58
C. Koepke	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	8:48	0:00
D. Samberg	D	1	1	2	3	2	1	+2	0	22:29	0:13
N. Pionk	D	2	0	2	4	4	1	+1	0	22:03	1:51
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	-1	0	20:15	0:00
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	2	19:53	0:13
E. Salomonsson	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	15:50	1:56
H. Fleury	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	15:44	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	21	16	5	.762	40:00	Loss
N. Daws	9	9	0	1.000	18:58

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Holmberg	RW	1	3	4	1	0	1	+1	0	17:54	0:51
B. Hagel	LW	1	2	3	5	1	1	+1	0	21:47	3:46
A. Cirelli	C	1	2	3	1	1	0	+1	0	19:00	1:40
J. Guentzel	C	0	1	1	6	1	1	0	0	22:51	4:40
B. Point	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	20:12	4:19
N. Kucherov	RW	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	2	16:13	3:09
G. Goncalves	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	-1	0	12:15	2:22
D. James	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	11:48	0:00
C. Geekie	C	1	0	1	2	5	0	0	0	11:32	1:12
J. Viel	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	11:22	0:00
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:06	0:00
J. Carlson	D	1	0	1	3	0	1	+2	0	13:12	1:55
C. D'Astous	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	19:18	3:36
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	19:04	0:05
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+1	0	18:31	0:00
V. Hedman	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	18:06	0:00
R. McDonagh	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+2	2	17:51	0:00
E. Lilleberg	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	8:58	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	21	17	4	.810	60:00	Win
D. Hildeby	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WPG

Line 1M. Scheifele16:59G. Vilardi15:34C. Perfetti13:55

Line 2A. Lowry13:14A. Iafallo12:48I. Rosen10:38

Line 3D. Mercer12:53K. Connor13:30V. Björck11:10

Line 4M. Barron11:11B. Lambert8:00C. Koepke8:29

Pair 1D. Samberg18:56N. Pionk16:58

Pair 2D. DeMelo17:13M. Ferraro17:15

Pair 3H. Fleury14:59E. Salomonsson13:33

TBL

Line 1J. Guentzel16:06B. Point15:32N. Kucherov13:04

Line 2A. Cirelli14:25P. Holmberg16:22B. Hagel15:07

Line 3J. Viel11:22C. Geekie10:20I. Mikheyev13:58

Line 4G. Goncalves9:53D. James11:48

Pair 1E. Cernak15:57V. Hedman15:31

Pair 2R. McDonagh16:18J. Moser16:41

Pair 3J. Carlson11:17C. D'Astous15:42

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

9 of 14 overs hit (64%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
TBL B. Hagel	3.5	+160	-170	5	Over
WPG K. Connor	3.5	+140	-174	3	Under
TBL B. Point	2.5	+140	-160	3	Over
WPG C. Perfetti	2.5	+140	-160	3	Over
TBL J. Guentzel	2.5	+105	-111	6	Over
TBL N. Kucherov	2.5	-140	+132	3	Over
TBL A. Cirelli	1.5	-110	-115	1	Under
TBL C. D'Astous	1.5	+105	-130	2	Over
WPG E. Salomonsson	1.5	+130	-170	2	Over
TBL G. Goncalves	1.5	+115	-140	1	Under
WPG G. Vilardi	1.5	-120	+100	0	Under
TBL J. Carlson	1.5	-140	+120	3	Over
WPG M. Scheifele	1.5	-148	+135	0	Under
WPG N. Pionk	1.5	-115	-105	4	Over

9 of 33 overs hit (27%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
TBL A. Cirelli	0.5	+320	-370	1	Over
WPG A. Iafallo	0.5	+800	-1400	0	Under
WPG A. Lowry	0.5	+850	-1400	0	Under
TBL B. Hagel	0.5	+150	-200	1	Over
WPG B. Lambert	0.5	+800	-1600	0	Under
TBL B. Point	0.5	+200	-250	1	Over
TBL C. D'Astous	0.5	+750	-900	0	Under
TBL C. Geekie	0.5	+625	-1000	1	Over
WPG C. Koepke	0.5	+900	-1400	0	Under
WPG C. Perfetti	0.5	+290	-370	0	Under
WPG D. DeMelo	0.5	+2500	-3500	0	Under
TBL D. James	0.5	+500	-750	0	Under
WPG D. Samberg	0.5	+1700	-3500	1	Over
TBL E. Cernak	0.5	+1600	-2500	0	Under
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.5	+2000	-4000	0	Under
WPG E. Salomonsson	0.5	+1100	-2000	0	Under
TBL G. Goncalves	0.5	+360	-475	0	Under
WPG G. Vilardi	0.5	+290	-450	0	Under
WPG H. Fleury	0.5	+2000	-3500	0	Under
TBL I. Mikheyev	0.5	+475	-650	0	Under
WPG I. Rosen	0.5	+700	-800	0	Under
TBL J. Carlson	0.5	+480	-800	1	Over
TBL J. Guentzel	0.5	+165	-200	0	Under
TBL J. Viel	0.5	+750	-1400	0	Under
WPG K. Connor	0.5	+180	-250	1	Over
WPG M. Barron	0.5	+1000	-1400	0	Under
WPG M. Ferraro	0.5	+3000	-3500	0	Under
WPG M. Scheifele	0.5	+285	-350	0	Under
TBL N. Kucherov	0.5	+150	-190	0	Under
WPG N. Pionk	0.5	+1000	-1600	2	Over
TBL P. Holmberg	0.5	+450	-700	1	Over
TBL R. McDonagh	0.5	+1300	-2800	0	Under
TBL V. Hedman	0.5	+1000	-2800	0	Under

9 of 16 overs hit (56%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
TBL A. Cirelli	0.5	+200	-260	2	Over
TBL B. Hagel	0.5	+122	-135	2	Over
TBL B. Point	0.5	+130	-135	0	Under
TBL C. D'Astous	0.5	+142	-175	0	Under
WPG C. Perfetti	0.5	+200	-200	2	Over
WPG E. Salomonsson	0.5	+225	-275	0	Under
TBL G. Goncalves	0.5	+210	-260	1	Over
WPG G. Vilardi	0.5	+225	-300	0	Under
TBL I. Mikheyev	0.5	+360	-525	0	Under
TBL J. Carlson	0.5	+164	-165	0	Under
TBL J. Guentzel	0.5	+125	-140	1	Over
WPG K. Connor	0.5	+155	-195	1	Over
WPG M. Scheifele	0.5	+130	-160	3	Over
TBL N. Kucherov	0.5	-160	+140	1	Over
WPG N. Pionk	0.5	+200	-225	0	Under
TBL P. Holmberg	0.5	+280	-370	3	Over

11 of 16 overs hit (69%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
TBL N. Kucherov	1.5	+140	-155	1	Under
TBL A. Cirelli	0.5	+105	-130	3	Over
TBL B. Hagel	0.5	-190	+165	3	Over
TBL B. Point	0.5	-160	+150	1	Over
TBL C. D'Astous	0.5	-102	-125	0	Under
WPG C. Perfetti	0.5	+100	-115	2	Over
WPG E. Salomonsson	0.5	+190	-235	0	Under
TBL G. Goncalves	0.5	+120	-135	1	Over
WPG G. Vilardi	0.5	+115	-125	0	Under
TBL I. Mikheyev	0.5	+190	-220	0	Under
TBL J. Carlson	0.5	+106	-115	1	Over
TBL J. Guentzel	0.5	-185	+165	1	Over
WPG K. Connor	0.5	-155	+135	2	Over
WPG M. Scheifele	0.5	-135	+115	3	Over
WPG N. Pionk	0.5	+158	-160	2	Over
TBL P. Holmberg	0.5	+165	-205	4	Over

2 of 15 overs hit (13%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
TBL A. Cirelli	0.5	+500	-1600	1	Over
TBL B. Hagel	0.5	+220	-275	0	Under
TBL B. Point	0.5	+280	-250	0	Under
TBL C. D'Astous	0.5	+190	-290	0	Under
TBL C. Geekie	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
WPG C. Perfetti	0.5	+280	-350	0	Under
WPG E. Salomonsson	0.5	+260	-450	0	Under
TBL G. Goncalves	0.5	+500	-1600	1	Over
WPG G. Vilardi	0.5	+280	-350	0	Under
TBL J. Carlson	0.5	+360	-375	0	Under
TBL J. Guentzel	0.5	+185	-225	0	Under
WPG K. Connor	0.5	+250	-350	0	Under
WPG M. Scheifele	0.5	+260	-325	0	Under
TBL N. Kucherov	0.5	+165	-190	0	Under
WPG N. Pionk	0.5	+500	-600	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
WPG S. Skinner	25.5	-110	-120	16	Under
TBL A. Vasilevskiy	22.5	-105	-115	17	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WPG 2.6, TBL 3.5	WPG 4, TBL 6
Total goals	6.1	10
Shots on goal	WPG 23.9, TBL 29.2	WPG 21, TBL 31
Win chance	TBL 65%	TBL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TBL N. Kucherov	3.0	3	1.55	1	36%	0
TBL B. Hagel	2.9	5	1.05	3	34%	1
WPG K. Connor	2.6	3	0.85	2	31%	1
TBL J. Guentzel	2.6	6	1.08	1	37%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	2.3	3	0.62	2	23%	0
TBL B. Point	2.2	3	1.01	1	36%	1
WPG M. Scheifele	2.0	0	0.99	3	32%	0
TBL J. Carlson	1.9	3	0.65	1	13%	1
WPG N. Pionk	1.9	4	0.46	2	10%	2
WPG G. Vilardi	1.7	0	0.69	0	27%	0
WPG D. Mercer	1.7	3	0.41	1	19%	0
TBL P. Holmberg	1.6	1	0.46	4	18%	1
TBL A. Cirelli	1.6	1	0.67	3	24%	1
TBL D. James	1.5	2	0.42	1	16%	0
TBL I. Mikheyev	1.4	0	0.44	0	19%	0
TBL C. D'Astous	1.3	2	0.45	0	9%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.3	3	0.24	2	4%	1
TBL G. Goncalves	1.2	1	0.49	1	16%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.2	0	0.27	0	12%	0
WPG V. Björck	1.2	0	0.25	0	13%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.2	0	0.28	0	13%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.1	1	0.30	0	7%	0
TBL V. Hedman	1.1	0	0.38	0	6%	0
WPG I. Rosen	1.1	1	0.24	0	12%	0
TBL E. Cernak	1.1	0	0.25	0	5%	0
WPG C. Koepke	1.1	0	0.19	0	9%	0
WPG M. Ferraro	1.1	0	0.21	0	5%	0
TBL J. Viel	1.1	1	0.19	1	8%	0
TBL C. Geekie	1.1	2	0.27	1	12%	1
WPG E. Salomonsson	1.0	2	0.15	0	4%	0
WPG A. Lowry	0.9	0	0.30	0	13%	0
WPG H. Fleury	0.9	0	0.15	0	3%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	0.8	2	0.21	0	4%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	0.8	0	0.34	0	5%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.7	0	0.21	0	4%	0
WPG B. Lambert	0.7	0	0.16	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.