Game Recap: WPG 2, UTA 5, January 20, 2025

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Game Recap

WPG2

FinalMon, Jan 20, 2025Every game that night

UTA5

UTA beat WPG 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 2.82 expected goals to 1.98. B. Hayton led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). N. Bjugstad had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. C. Ingram stopped 23 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WPG	0	0	2	2
UTA	0	2	3	5

2nd 16:00UTAO. Maatta0.03 xG
2nd 19:42UTAL. Cooley0.20 xG
3rd 4:53UTAB. Hayton0.24 xG
3rd 8:04UTAM. Maccelli0.11 xG
3rd 8:32WPGN. Niederreiter0.05 xG
3rd 11:48WPGD. DeMelo0.07 xG
3rd 17:55UTAC. KellerEN0.53 xG

Team Stats

WPGUTA

25Shots on goal28

1.98Expected goals2.82

64Shot attempts56

245v5 shots on goal25

0/0Power play0/2

21Hits27

13Blocked shots17

16Penalty minutes12

9Giveaways13

7Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 1.98 xGUTA 2.82 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG25 on goal, 2 scored

UTA28 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Ehlers	LW	0	2	2	2	0	0	+1	0	14:35	0:00
M. Scheifele	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	12	20:20	0:00
N. Niederreiter	RW	1	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	14:02	0:00
K. Connor	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-4	0	23:56	0:00
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	15:53	0:00
G. Vilardi	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	15:36	0:00
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	15:30	0:00
R. Kupari	C	0	0	0	0	3	2	-2	0	12:29	0:00
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	0	12:23	0:00
C. Perfetti	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	12:15	0:00
D. Gustafsson	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	11:20	0:00
A. Lowry	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5:18	0:00
D. Samberg	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	-1	0	23:48	0:00
D. DeMelo	D	1	0	1	4	1	3	-1	2	18:44	0:00
N. Pionk	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-2	2	23:14	0:00
J. Morrissey	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	22:23	0:00
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	17:41	0:00
C. Miller	D	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	15:09	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	27	23	4	.852	59:24	Loss
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Hayton	C	1	2	3	3	1	0	+3	0	15:04	1:42
N. Schmaltz	C	0	2	2	1	0	1	+2	0	17:46	2:17
J. Doan	RW	0	2	2	1	0	0	+2	0	14:35	2:12
C. Keller	RW	1	1	2	2	0	1	+2	0	13:14	0:00
L. Cooley	C	1	0	1	3	2	1	+2	0	18:54	2:13
M. Maccelli	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	15:00	1:44
K. Stenlund	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	14:33	0:02
L. Crouse	LW	0	0	0	0	3	2	-1	0	16:29	1:46
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	1	7	1	-1	0	15:18	0:01
A. Kerfoot	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:48	2:15
N. Bjugstad	C	0	0	0	5	0	0	-1	0	14:40	1:40
L. O'Brien	C	0	0	0	0	11	1	-1	0	11:25	0:00
O. Maatta	D	1	0	1	2	0	2	0	0	19:35	0:03
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+2	0	22:43	0:08
J. Marino	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	22:06	2:03
M. Kesselring	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+3	12	21:59	1:54
N. DeSimone	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	0	15:08	0:00
J. Välimäki	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	14:43	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Ingram	25	23	2	.920	60:00	Win
K. Vejmelka	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamKevin Stenlund UTA Faces WPG, his team until Apr 20231 A, 0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WPG 3.1, UTA 2.8	WPG 2, UTA 5
Total goals	5.9	7
Shots on goal	WPG 28.2, UTA 28.4	WPG 25, UTA 28
Win chance	WPG 55%	UTA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	2.9	1	0.97	0	35%	0
WPG N. Ehlers	2.5	2	0.76	2	25%	0
UTA C. Keller	2.5	2	0.86	2	29%	1
UTA L. Cooley	2.3	3	0.77	1	26%	1
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.1	1	0.72	2	23%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.0	2	0.89	1	33%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	2.0	2	0.48	1	22%	1
WPG J. Morrissey	2.0	0	0.72	0	11%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	1.8	2	0.71	0	29%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	1.8	1	0.53	0	18%	0
UTA N. Bjugstad	1.7	5	0.34	0	16%	0
UTA J. Doan	1.6	1	0.40	2	18%	0
UTA M. Kesselring	1.6	2	0.32	0	6%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.6	3	0.38	3	15%	1
UTA L. Crouse	1.5	0	0.32	0	18%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.5	1	0.38	0	16%	0
WPG N. Pionk	1.5	0	0.46	0	7%	0
UTA M. Maccelli	1.5	3	0.45	1	14%	1
WPG A. Lowry	1.4	0	0.45	0	18%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.2	2	0.24	1	4%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.2	0	0.19	1	12%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.1	1	0.42	0	15%	0
WPG C. Miller	1.1	0	0.20	0	5%	0
UTA A. Kerfoot	1.0	1	0.34	0	12%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.0	1	0.32	0	14%	0
UTA I. Cole	1.0	0	0.22	0	3%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.0	4	0.18	0	9%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	1.0	4	0.29	1	4%	1
UTA O. Maatta	1.0	2	0.23	1	4%	1
UTA N. DeSimone	1.0	2	0.19	0	4%	0
WPG L. Stanley	0.9	1	0.21	0	3%	0
UTA L. O'Brien	0.9	0	0.14	0	6%	0
WPG R. Kupari	0.9	0	0.17	0	7%	0
UTA J. Välimäki	0.9	1	0.20	0	3%	0
UTA J. Marino	0.8	1	0.27	0	4%	0
WPG D. Gustafsson	0.7	2	0.12	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.