UTA beat WPG 4-1, with the chances close: 3.58 expected goals to 3.52. B. Hayton led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Scheifele had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. K. Vejmelka stopped 32 of 33.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WPG 3.52 xGUTA 3.58 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Scheifele | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 21:56 | 5:10 |
| K. Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:36 | 5:15 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:07 | 5:06 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:02 | 5:02 |
| V. Namestnikov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:32 | 1:30 |
| A. Lowry | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:54 | 1:42 |
| N. Niederreiter | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:20 | 1:36 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:40 | 0:00 |
| M. Appleton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:31 | 1:43 |
| J. Anderson-Dolan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:24 | 0:00 |
| M. Barron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:06 | 0:00 |
| D. Gustafsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:27 | 0:00 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 26:32 | 5:13 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:37 | 0:06 |
| D. Samberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 18:20 | 0:13 |
| C. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 17:47 | 1:39 |
| L. Stanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:39 | 0:00 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:40 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Hellebuyck | 27 | 24 | 3 | .889 | 58:35 | Loss |
| E. Comrie | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Keller | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:48 | 2:46 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 16:41 | 0:00 |
| B. Hayton | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:40 | 2:45 |
| D. Guenther | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:10 | 2:45 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:47 | 2:45 |
| N. Bjugstad | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 11:02 | 0:00 |
| L. Cooley | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:39 | 0:30 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 15:23 | 0:00 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:02 | 0:30 |
| K. Yamamoto | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:50 | 0:24 |
| J. Doan | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:56 | 0:29 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:03 | 0:00 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:33 | 2:44 |
| O. Maatta | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 18:52 | 0:00 |
| J. Marino | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:35 | 0:00 |
| S. Durzi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:29 | 0:31 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 21:19 | 0:00 |
| M. Kesselring | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:20 | 0:06 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Vejmelka | 33 | 32 | 1 | .970 | 60:00 | Win |
| M. Villalta | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WPG 3.1, UTA 2.7 | WPG 1, UTA 4 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | WPG 25.9, UTA 27.3 | WPG 33, UTA 28 |
| Win chance | WPG 56% | UTA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG K. Connor | 2.9 | 4 | 0.98 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| UTA D. Guenther | 2.6 | 1 | 0.63 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.3 | 3 | 0.79 | 2 | 27% | 1 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 2.0 | 2 | 0.62 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 2.0 | 1 | 0.70 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 1.9 | 3 | 0.61 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 1.9 | 6 | 0.92 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 1.7 | 4 | 0.41 | 2 | 17% | 1 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.7 | 0 | 0.53 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 1.6 | 3 | 0.56 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 1.6 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| UTA S. Durzi | 1.5 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| UTA J. Doan | 1.5 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WPG M. Appleton | 1.5 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| UTA M. Kesselring | 1.4 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.4 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.4 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| UTA N. Bjugstad | 1.4 | 4 | 0.26 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| WPG D. Samberg | 1.3 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WPG A. Lowry | 1.3 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WPG C. Miller | 1.2 | 4 | 0.24 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 1.2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.2 | 3 | 0.23 | 2 | 13% | 1 |
| WPG V. Namestnikov | 1.1 | 3 | 0.43 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WPG L. Schenn | 1.0 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG M. Barron | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WPG J. Anderson-Dolan | 1.0 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 1.0 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| UTA K. Yamamoto | 1.0 | 3 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 0.9 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA J. Marino | 0.9 | 0 | 0.28 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| WPG B. Tanev | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| UTA O. Maatta | 0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| WPG L. Stanley | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WPG D. Gustafsson | 0.7 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.