Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
WPG2
VAN6
VAN beat WPG 6-2, with the chances close: 2.78 expected goals to 3.09. B. Boeser led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). P. Suter had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. K. Lankinen stopped 20 of 22.
Team Stats
WPGVAN
22Shots on goal22
3.09Expected goals2.78
65Shot attempts48
195v5 shots on goal19
0/2Power play1/1
27Hits28
12Blocked shots16
2Penalty minutes4
11Giveaways17
4Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WPG 3.09 xGVAN 2.78 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Ehlers | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:57 | 3:04 |
| V. Namestnikov | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:00 | 0:39 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:12 | 0:39 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:27 | 0:00 |
| K. Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:58 | 3:03 |
| M. Scheifele | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:11 | 3:04 |
| G. Vilardi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:31 | 3:04 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:40 | 0:39 |
| A. Lowry | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:39 | 0:00 |
| N. Niederreiter | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 11:42 | 0:39 |
| M. Appleton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 11:31 | 0:00 |
| M. Barron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:59 | 0:00 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:41 | 0:01 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 27:21 | 3:04 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:35 | 0:00 |
| D. Samberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:06 | 0:00 |
| C. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:45 | 0:39 |
| H. Fleury | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:36 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Hellebuyck | 21 | 16 | 5 | .762 | 57:52 | Loss |
| E. Comrie | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Boeser | RW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:38 | 1:17 |
| P. Suter | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:53 | 0:00 |
| N. Hoglander | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:39 | 0:00 |
| K. Sherwood | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:09 | 0:00 |
| E. Pettersson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 17:04 | 1:17 |
| T. Blueger | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:01 | 0:00 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:54 | 0:00 |
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:32 | 1:17 |
| J. Lekkerimäki | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:58 | 1:17 |
| L. Karlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:44 | 0:00 |
| D. Joshua | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:16 | 0:00 |
| N. Aman | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:31 | 0:00 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 25:52 | 1:17 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | +1 | 0 | 19:14 | 0:00 |
| T. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 24:45 | 0:00 |
| D. Forbort | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:36 | 0:00 |
| F. Hronek | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 18:48 | 0:00 |
| E. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:02 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Lankinen | 22 | 20 | 2 | .909 | 59:24 | Win |
| A. Silovs | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WPG 3.0, VAN 2.5 | WPG 2, VAN 6 |
| Total goals | 5.5 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | WPG 25.5, VAN 25.0 | WPG 22, VAN 22 |
| Win chance | WPG 56% | VAN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG K. Connor | 2.8 | 3 | 1.01 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| VAN Q. Hughes | 2.4 | 0 | 0.86 | 2 | 13% | 0 |
| WPG N. Ehlers | 2.3 | 4 | 0.75 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 2.0 | 1 | 0.72 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 1.9 | 1 | 0.51 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| VAN B. Boeser | 1.8 | 2 | 0.60 | 3 | 26% | 2 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 1.8 | 2 | 0.91 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 1.8 | 1 | 0.71 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 1.7 | 5 | 0.76 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 1.6 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| VAN K. Sherwood | 1.6 | 2 | 0.37 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| VAN F. Hronek | 1.5 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VAN P. Suter | 1.5 | 5 | 0.39 | 2 | 19% | 2 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 1.5 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WPG D. Samberg | 1.3 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WPG M. Appleton | 1.3 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VAN N. Hoglander | 1.3 | 1 | 0.32 | 2 | 15% | 1 |
| VAN D. O'Connor | 1.3 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| WPG A. Lowry | 1.2 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| VAN T. Myers | 1.1 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG V. Namestnikov | 1.1 | 0 | 0.43 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| VAN J. Lekkerimäki | 1.1 | 2 | 0.19 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.0 | 1 | 0.29 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| WPG L. Schenn | 1.0 | 0 | 0.14 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN T. Blueger | 1.0 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| WPG M. Barron | 1.0 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VAN M. Pettersson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| WPG C. Miller | 0.9 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VAN D. Joshua | 0.9 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WPG B. Tanev | 0.9 | 1 | 0.22 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 0.8 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG H. Fleury | 0.8 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VAN L. Karlsson | 0.8 | 2 | 0.13 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 0.7 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| VAN D. Forbort | 0.7 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VAN N. Aman | 0.6 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.