WPG beat WSH 5-4 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.36 expected goals to 2.30. M. Roy led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). P. Dubois had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. C. Hellebuyck stopped 25 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| WSH | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
- 1st 9:13WPGC. PerfettiPP0.21 xG
- 1st 12:41WPGD. Samberg0.03 xG
- 2nd 1:12WSHP. Dubois0.21 xG
- 2nd 4:03WPGA. Iafallo0.05 xG
- 2nd 4:54WSHT. Raddysh0.10 xG
- 3rd 1:10WPGJ. Morrissey0.15 xG
- 3rd 7:26WSHT. Wilson0.04 xG
- 3rd 12:21WSHA. Ovechkin0.02 xG
- OT 1:57WPGJ. Morrissey0.31 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WPG 3.36 xGWSH 2.30 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Scheifele | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:23 | 2:08 |
| V. Namestnikov | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:19 | 0:36 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:44 | 0:33 |
| K. Connor | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:13 | 2:08 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:24 | 0:12 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:06 | 2:12 |
| G. Vilardi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:29 | 2:07 |
| N. Niederreiter | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:12 | 0:15 |
| R. Kupari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:40 | 0:00 |
| M. Appleton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:19 | 0:00 |
| D. Gustafsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:32 | 0:00 |
| P. Ford | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:22 | 0:00 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 24:54 | 2:07 |
| N. Pionk | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 23:44 | 0:36 |
| D. Samberg | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 21:47 | 0:29 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 23:12 | 0:11 |
| L. Stanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:24 | 0:00 |
| C. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:07 | 0:01 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Hellebuyck | 29 | 25 | 4 | .862 | 61:57 | Win |
| E. Comrie | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Wilson | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:18 | 1:02 |
| P. Dubois | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:45 | 0:16 |
| D. Strome | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:07 | 1:02 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:09 | 1:02 |
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:09 | 1:18 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 10:07 | 0:00 |
| A. Protas | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 17:04 | 0:16 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:11 | 0:00 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:28 | 0:00 |
| A. Mangiapane | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:31 | 0:00 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 11:57 | 0:00 |
| E. Frank | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 11:55 | 0:16 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 19:11 | 0:00 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 23:21 | 1:02 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:13 | 0:16 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:30 | 0:00 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:18 | 0:00 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:12 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Thompson | 30 | 25 | 5 | .833 | 61:57 | OT loss |
| C. Lindgren | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WPG 2.7, WSH 2.6 | WPG 5, WSH 4 |
| Total goals | 5.3 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | WPG 26.7, WSH 26.5 | WPG 30, WSH 29 |
| Win chance | WPG 53% | WPG won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 3.3 | 2 | 0.78 | 1 | 34% | 1 |
| WPG K. Connor | 2.9 | 2 | 0.89 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| WPG N. Ehlers | 2.4 | 2 | 0.73 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 2.4 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.2 | 2 | 0.56 | 2 | 25% | 1 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 2.0 | 1 | 0.53 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 2.0 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 2.0 | 0 | 0.80 | 2 | 30% | 0 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 2.0 | 3 | 0.61 | 2 | 12% | 2 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 1.9 | 0 | 0.47 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 1.9 | 3 | 0.58 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.8 | 3 | 0.72 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 1.8 | 1 | 0.67 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 1.7 | 2 | 0.46 | 2 | 17% | 1 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 1.6 | 5 | 0.57 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| WPG N. Pionk | 1.6 | 4 | 0.42 | 2 | 8% | 0 |
| WPG M. Appleton | 1.4 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.4 | 1 | 0.30 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| WPG D. Samberg | 1.3 | 3 | 0.24 | 2 | 5% | 1 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.3 | 2 | 0.26 | 3 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH A. Mangiapane | 1.3 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 1.3 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WPG V. Namestnikov | 1.2 | 4 | 0.42 | 2 | 15% | 0 |
| WSH L. Eller | 1.1 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 1.1 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WPG C. Miller | 1.1 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 1.0 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 1.0 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 1.0 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WSH E. Frank | 1.0 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WPG R. Kupari | 1.0 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 1.0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH T. Raddysh | 1.0 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| WPG L. Stanley | 0.9 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WPG D. Gustafsson | 0.9 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.