Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
WSH1
BOS4
BOS beat WSH 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 2.83 expected goals to 1.23. BOS outshot WSH 22 to 11. B. Marchand led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). J. Swayman stopped 10 of 11.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| BOS | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
- 1st 19:12BOSJ. BrazeauPP0.13 xG
- 2nd 4:50WSHJ. VranaPP0.07 xG
- 3rd 13:41BOSE. Lindholm0.17 xG
- 3rd 15:59BOSC. Coyle0.15 xG
- 3rd 18:38BOSB. MarchandEN0.89 xG
Team Stats
WSHBOS
11Shots on goal22
1.23Expected goals2.83
43Shot attempts45
75v5 shots on goal14
1/3Power play1/4
18Hits19
11Blocked shots17
12Penalty minutes23
14Giveaways12
6Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WSH 1.23 xGBOS 2.83 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Dubois | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 20:39 | 3:58 |
| J. Vrana | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:10 | 4:13 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:33 | 4:48 |
| D. Strome | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 4 | 20:33 | 4:44 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:56 | 4:44 |
| A. Mangiapane | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:24 | 3:50 |
| A. Protas | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:36 | 0:05 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:39 | 0:05 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:35 | 4:04 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:21 | 0:00 |
| I. Miroshnichenko | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:34 | 0:05 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:32 | 3:19 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 21:47 | 4:43 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:30 | 5:27 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 17:58 | 0:05 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 17:21 | 0:05 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16:19 | 0:00 |
| D. McIlrath | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1:45 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Lindgren | 21 | 18 | 3 | .857 | 59:08 | Loss |
| L. Thompson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Marchand | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 21:01 | 3:17 |
| C. Coyle | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 18:23 | 2:03 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 4 | 19:34 | 3:06 |
| M. Geekie | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:03 | 2:35 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:11 | 2:01 |
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:19 | 3:16 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:14 | 1:11 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:45 | 1:24 |
| T. Frederic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11:41 | 1:44 |
| J. Beecher | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:32 | 1:24 |
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:00 | 1:18 |
| O. Wahlstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 8:22 | 1:04 |
| C. McAvoy | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | +3 | 0 | 24:18 | 3:01 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 17:32 | 3:41 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 21:37 | 0:00 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:40 | 1:24 |
| B. Carlo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:22 | 0:00 |
| J. Oesterle | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:35 | 0:51 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 11 | 10 | 1 | .909 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Korpisalo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WSH 2.6, BOS 3.1 | WSH 1, BOS 4 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | WSH 25.6, BOS 28.4 | WSH 11, BOS 22 |
| Win chance | BOS 59% | BOS won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 3.9 | 1 | 1.20 | 0 | 42% | 0 |
| BOS B. Marchand | 2.4 | 2 | 0.86 | 3 | 30% | 1 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 2.2 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 2.0 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.0 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.9 | 1 | 0.71 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 1.9 | 0 | 0.50 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 1.8 | 3 | 0.53 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| BOS C. McAvoy | 1.8 | 1 | 0.53 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 1.8 | 0 | 0.51 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.8 | 0 | 0.76 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.6 | 2 | 0.59 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 1.6 | 2 | 0.56 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| BOS J. Brazeau | 1.5 | 1 | 0.43 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| BOS T. Frederic | 1.5 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| BOS C. Coyle | 1.4 | 3 | 0.54 | 2 | 21% | 1 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.4 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH A. Mangiapane | 1.3 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.3 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.3 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 1.3 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS O. Wahlstrom | 1.2 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH J. Vrana | 1.2 | 2 | 0.31 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| WSH T. Raddysh | 1.2 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS J. Oesterle | 1.2 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 1.1 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BOS B. Carlo | 1.1 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH I. Miroshnichenko | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS C. Koepke | 1.0 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 1.0 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 1.0 | 2 | 0.36 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 0.9 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 0.9 | 0 | 0.30 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 0.9 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BOS J. Beecher | 0.7 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH D. McIlrath | 0.4 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.