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Game Recap
WSH4
BOS3
WSH beat BOS 4-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.27 expected goals to 2.50. WSH outshot BOS 32 to 24. D. Pastrnak led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Carlson had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. C. Lindgren stopped 21 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| BOS | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 13:32WSHN. DowdSH0.07 xG
- 1st 15:43WSHA. OvechkinPP0.13 xG
- 2nd 6:05BOSV. Lettieri0.19 xG
- 2nd 17:12BOSD. PastrnakPP0.10 xG
- 3rd 10:37WSHD. Strome0.48 xG
- 3rd 14:46WSHT. Wilson0.03 xG
- 3rd 15:13BOSD. Pastrnak0.09 xG
Team Stats
WSHBOS
32Shots on goal24
3.27Expected goals2.50
53Shot attempts58
265v5 shots on goal19
1/2Power play1/3
17Hits20
15Blocked shots13
11Penalty minutes9
13Giveaways11
1Takeaways8
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WSH 3.27 xGBOS 2.50 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Strome | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:59 | 1:49 |
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:23 | 1:49 |
| P. Dubois | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:15 | 1:49 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:56 | 1:29 |
| A. Protas | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:01 | 0:02 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:43 | 0:00 |
| N. Dowd | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:47 | 0:00 |
| R. Leonard | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:14 | 0:00 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 13:58 | 0:02 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:34 | 0:00 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:52 | 0:02 |
| A. Mangiapane | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:59 | 0:00 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 26:16 | 1:49 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:02 | 0:00 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 21:39 | 0:00 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:09 | 0:02 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:53 | 0:16 |
| D. McIlrath | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 10:33 | 0:06 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Lindgren | 24 | 21 | 3 | .875 | 60:00 | Win |
| L. Thompson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Geekie | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:57 | 3:03 |
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 19:51 | 2:41 |
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:49 | 2:07 |
| V. Lettieri | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:25 | 1:41 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:01 | 2:03 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:05 | 2:41 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 16:59 | 2:37 |
| J. Lauko | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:50 | 0:00 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:17 | 0:00 |
| J. Beecher | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:55 | 0:00 |
| P. Brown | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:21 | 0:00 |
| J. Viel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7:31 | 0:00 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:13 | 2:23 |
| H. Jokiharju | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:51 | 2:11 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:07 | 0:00 |
| P. Wotherspoon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:04 | 0:00 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:39 | 0:00 |
| I. Mitchell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:55 | 2:23 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 32 | 28 | 4 | .875 | 58:18 | Loss |
| J. Korpisalo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WSH 3.2, BOS 2.8 | WSH 4, BOS 3 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | WSH 27.5, BOS 25.5 | WSH 32, BOS 24 |
| Win chance | WSH 56% | WSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 3.7 | 6 | 1.12 | 2 | 40% | 2 |
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 3.2 | 2 | 0.85 | 2 | 35% | 1 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 2.3 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.0 | 4 | 0.69 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 2.0 | 1 | 0.62 | 2 | 26% | 0 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 1.9 | 2 | 0.73 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 1.9 | 7 | 0.59 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 1.8 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 1.8 | 3 | 0.65 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| WSH A. Beauvillier | 1.7 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.7 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.7 | 2 | 0.77 | 2 | 24% | 1 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.5 | 2 | 0.64 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.5 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS V. Lettieri | 1.4 | 6 | 0.26 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| BOS C. Mittelstadt | 1.4 | 0 | 0.58 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BOS C. Koepke | 1.3 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 1.3 | 0 | 0.39 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| WSH L. Eller | 1.2 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS H. Jokiharju | 1.2 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH A. Mangiapane | 1.1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 1.1 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 1.0 | 2 | 0.22 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 0.9 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 0.9 | 2 | 0.29 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 0.9 | 3 | 0.31 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 0.9 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BOS P. Wotherspoon | 0.9 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BOS J. Lauko | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS P. Brown | 0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BOS J. Viel | 0.8 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS I. Mitchell | 0.7 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BOS M. Khusnutdinov | 0.7 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS J. Beecher | 0.6 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WSH D. McIlrath | 0.3 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.