Game Recap: WSH 3, BUF 4 (SO), January 6, 2025

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Game Recap

WSH3

Final/SOMon, Jan 6, 2025Every game that night

BUF4

BUF beat WSH 4-3 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 3.22 expected goals to 2.41. T. Wilson led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). T. Thompson had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.0. U. Luukkonen stopped 25 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
WSH	1	1	1	0	3
BUF	1	2	0	1	4

1st 4:42BUFA. Tuch0.10 xG
1st 6:10WSHT. WilsonPP0.12 xG
2nd 1:07BUFA. Tuch0.08 xG
2nd 11:29WSHT. Wilson0.19 xG
2nd 12:49BUFT. ThompsonPP0.11 xG
3rd 15:47WSHA. Protas0.12 xG

Team Stats

WSHBUF

28Shots on goal27

2.41Expected goals3.22

63Shot attempts58

195v5 shots on goal16

1/2Power play1/3

23Hits10

12Blocked shots20

8Penalty minutes6

19Giveaways10

8Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WSH 2.41 xGBUF 3.22 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WSH26 on goal, 3 scored

BUF27 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Wilson	RW	2	0	2	4	2	0	+1	0	22:04	1:38
A. Protas	LW	1	1	2	4	1	0	+2	2	20:00	0:00
P. Dubois	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	+2	0	20:43	0:24
D. Strome	C	0	1	1	2	3	0	-1	4	18:10	2:06
A. Ovechkin	LW	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	16:42	2:30
C. McMichael	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	15:48	0:52
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	0	14:02	0:00
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	12:09	0:00
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	2	12:02	0:00
A. Mangiapane	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	11:51	0:27
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	11:35	0:00
J. Vrana	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	8:22	0:00
J. Carlson	D	0	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	23:40	2:16
J. Chychrun	D	0	1	1	4	0	2	0	0	23:01	2:03
M. Roy	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	20:58	0:00
R. Sandin	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	19:48	0:14
M. Fehérváry	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	19:18	0:00
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	17:44	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Lindgren	27	24	3	.889	65:00	OT loss
L. Thompson	0	0	0	–	0:00

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Peterka	RW	0	2	2	4	0	1	0	0	23:37	4:20
A. Tuch	RW	2	0	2	3	1	2	+2	0	19:36	0:53
T. Thompson	C	1	0	1	6	1	0	-2	2	23:48	4:09
R. McLeod	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	+2	0	21:44	0:01
J. Zucker	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	21:33	4:08
D. Cozens	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-2	0	18:14	0:45
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:33	0:36
J. Quinn	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	14:26	4:17
Z. Benson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	13:52	0:49
S. Lafferty	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	7:12	0:04
N. Aube-Kubel	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	6:19	0:00
J.Kulich	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	5:18	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	0	0	29:58	4:19
B. Byram	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	28:57	0:03
O. Power	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	19:36	0:46
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	+1	0	15:41	0:00
C. Clifton	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	14:20	0:05
H. Jokiharju	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	11:46	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
U. Luukkonen	28	25	3	.893	65:00	Win
J. Reimer	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamAlex Tuch WSH First game back in Buffalo, his team until May 20262 G, 3 SOG
BirthdayAliaksei Protas WSH Turns 24 that day1 G, 1 A, 4 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WSH 3.2, BUF 3.0	WSH 3, BUF 4
Total goals	6.3	7
Shots on goal	WSH 27.3, BUF 28.1	WSH 28, BUF 27
Win chance	WSH 52%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WSH A. Ovechkin	3.0	5	0.88	0	36%	0
BUF T. Thompson	3.0	6	0.93	1	37%	1
BUF R. Dahlin	2.5	1	0.66	1	16%	0
BUF J. Zucker	2.3	2	0.70	0	27%	0
WSH T. Wilson	2.3	4	0.70	2	29%	2
WSH J. Chychrun	2.2	4	0.57	1	16%	0
BUF D. Cozens	2.1	3	0.60	0	22%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.1	3	0.74	2	26%	2
WSH J. Carlson	2.0	1	0.63	2	13%	0
BUF J. Peterka	2.0	4	0.58	2	22%	0
BUF J.Kulich	1.9	1	0.34	0	18%	0
WSH C. McMichael	1.9	1	0.52	0	23%	0
WSH A. Protas	1.8	4	0.63	2	19%	1
WSH P. Dubois	1.8	1	0.70	1	23%	0
BUF J. Quinn	1.7	2	0.53	0	19%	0
WSH D. Strome	1.7	2	0.86	1	25%	0
BUF O. Power	1.6	1	0.41	0	8%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.3	1	0.30	0	6%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.3	1	0.47	0	14%	0
BUF Z. Benson	1.3	1	0.38	0	15%	0
WSH J. Vrana	1.2	0	0.37	0	18%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	1.2	0	0.23	0	11%	0
WSH L. Eller	1.2	1	0.30	0	13%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.1	0	0.20	0	4%	0
WSH T. Raddysh	1.1	2	0.29	0	11%	0
WSH N. Dowd	1.1	0	0.39	0	18%	0
WSH A. Mangiapane	1.1	1	0.39	0	17%	0
BUF H. Jokiharju	1.1	0	0.19	0	4%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	1.0	0	0.24	0	3%	0
WSH R. Sandin	1.0	1	0.40	0	8%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.0	1	0.35	0	14%	0
BUF N. Aube-Kubel	0.9	1	0.21	0	9%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	0.9	0	0.24	0	7%	0
BUF P. Krebs	0.8	0	0.29	0	10%	0
BUF C. Clifton	0.8	0	0.18	0	4%	0
BUF S. Lafferty	0.8	0	0.21	0	10%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.